RADIO
In 2024, Davis Riley's best three finishes are T14, T30 and T62. He just gained 12 strokes ball striking and beat the field (Scottie Scheffler) by five strokes. Betting on winners makes you want to pull more hair out than Tom Brady has had installed in since he retired. But that is why we bet placements and matchups, so that we can still make money even if we are not hitting the winner. This is what Breaking $100 really tries to exemplify each week.
This week we have yet another golf course that has just been renovated with newer greens (Quail Hollow and Colonial last week). We shall see how this unfolds, but I am looking for accurate drivers, good putters, and guys who hit their mid irons and wedges well. This week we also are not betting the entire $100. Something about this week has me feeling a little tentative, so our outright card has space for a 25-1 live add, and our placement card is only $40 instead of the usual $85 we typically invest there.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
The placement card has been crushing for us so far, keeping our profits up despite losing our $10 in outrights and going 3 of 4 in our Farewell $5er, which is exactly how I want each week to unfold. If we hit a winner, great, but if not, we still want to profit on the week from our losers finishing second (T5 bets) and other guys we never bet outright, playing well and optimizing their positional track record which we will get into in the placement segment of the article.
✅Breaking $100 @CSChallengeFW: +$38.43 profit
Outrights: -$10
🙃Keegan (T2), Collin (4th), Sepp (T5)...Placements +$53.43
✅Collin T5
✅Straka T5
✅Scheffler T10 (again💚)
✅Hoge T20 (again 💚)
✅Harman T40
✅Glover T40
✅Hodges T403-Ball Parlay -$5
Notes:
Davis Riley… https://t.co/1abxiD2eP1 pic.twitter.com/bI9csjP7bH
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) May 26, 2024
2024 Summary
Here is the summary of the pre-tournament bets that we have made in the Outright, Placement, 3-Ball Parlays and Matchups.
We are rolling out Alex Noren, Sahith Theegala and Aaron Baddeley as our most profitable golfers we have bet on this year so far, along with a few others.
Outrights ($10)
Sahith Theegala $4.56 +2200
If you are a regular reader of this article, surprise!!!! Sahith Theegala is on the card again (see the -$20.48 lost on him in the outright market). He has just been flirting with victory this year. A T2 at the Sentry and RBC Heritage. What is more exciting about those T2s at those courses, is that at the Sentry, there are a lot of mid-irons and wedges, while the RBC is a shorter course with a bit more positional savviness needed for success. It's also another RBC event, which Sahith is an ambassador of.
Last time they played here, the top-5 golfers all gained at least +1.4 putting per round. Sahith Theegala is fourth on the PGA Tour behind Taylor Montgomery, Denny McCarthy and Aaron Baddeley who are all exceptional rollers of the rock. The only difference between Sahith and those three, is that Theegala can also rock and roll, with his ball striking ranking 7th in this field. The thunder and lightning of ball striking and putting is what we are looking for and Sahith is due a win here soon!
Nick Taylor $1.43 (+7000)
This is a number play, as he is the fifth ranked Canadian in my model, but his ranking is 24, while Mackenzie Hughes ranks 9th, with not that much separating him from his compatriots, yet his odds are double that of Hughes and triple that of Conners. In the last year, Taylor has two more wins than both of them combined. gaining 9 strokes putting in Canada last year, while gaining 5 strokes putting when he outdueled Charley Hoffman for his second win at the Waste Management Open. If that putter gets hot and the mid irons follow suit, we have the best value Canadian on our card, in our opinion, who will become Canadian royalty.
LIVE adds in the holster $4.01 (+2500)
We don't have the greatest sense of what to expect this week, so we are going to try find a few guys who struck it well but missed a few putts in the early rounds once we get a bit more information from the course. But, if our two guys ball out, we may just pocket the $4 and take our chances with our two horses.
Placings ($55)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
If you are looking for this kind of information on golfers that are not in this screenshot, my full model is available >>>HERE<<< when you upgrade to our premium packages. Code PGA100 is going to save you $100 when signing up for the PGA Platinum for the year ($199)!
Matchups
NO MATCHUPS THIS WEEK.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $75.96 +1519 (FanDuel)
We are sick of going 3 for 4 ... so Chad Ramey hail mary 3-legger!
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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