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Brenton Kemp's top NHL betting picks and best bets for today's NHL games on 1/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various hockey bets.
It's a fairly quiet night in the NHL with just three games on tap. However, that does not mean there isn't money to be made! Let's dive into a short slate and pad those bankrolls!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Wednesday, January 17, 2024. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter/X @BKemp17.
Today's NHL Betting Picks - Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: FLA (-218)
It's an Atlantic Division tilt tonight in Sunrise as the Florida Panthers look to stay hot against the visiting Detroit Red Wings.
The Panthers, winners of eight of their last 10, currently sit second in the Atlantic and have been excellent at both ends of the ice. In fact, they likely haven't gotten their due, according to their underlying metrics.
While they sit right in the middle of the pack at 15th in overall offense, the Cats sit fourth in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at five-on-five. Their expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5 is fifth-best in the league. On the defensive side, they are tied with the Los Angeles Kings for third with just 2.56 goals against per game on the season. Additionally, they rank fourth in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at 5v5 action. It doesn't get a whole lot better than this.
It would appear the Wings have been on the fortunate end of things to this point. After all, they rank fourth in overall offense with 3.56 goals per game, yet sit 29th in xGF/60 at 5v5. Their xGF% at 5v5 sits 27th, so it certainly looks like they've been fortunate to not only sit fourth in overall offense but fourth in the Atlantic.
On the back end, the club ranks eighth in overall defense. However, it's a similar story as they also sit 23rd in xGA/60 at 5v5. They sit in the top half of the league on both ends of their special teams, which helps, but this has not been a very good hockey team at even strength.
In short, Florida absolutely owns Detroit, having won 10 straight against tonight's opponent. They have not allowed more than two goals in a game to this Red Wings team in that time, out-scoring them 42-15 in the process.
Florida has won six of the last seven matchups on the puck line. Given their dominance over the Winged Wheel and the underlying data entering this one, there's little choice but to ride the trend and grab the Cats to win this one by at least a pair.
Pick: Panthers puck line -1.5 (+114, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Chicago Blackhawks vs. Buffalo Sabres
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: BUF (-298)
The Buffalo Sabres will welcome the Chicago Blackhawks to western New York this evening, looking to capitalize on a young team playing their second game in as many nights.
Indeed, the Blackhawks snuck by the lowly San Jose Sharks in a shootout by a 2-1 count on Tuesday night in Chicago and then hit the road to take on the Sabres Wednesday evening. Of course, they'll do so without the services of young phenom Connor Bedard who remains sidelined with a broken jaw. Veteran Nick Foligno is also out for the time being with a broken finger suffered while sticking up for Bedard in a fight following a hit by the Devils' Brendan Smith.
At 13-29-2, only the Sharks have been worse than Chicago this season. Furthermore, it's been a struggle outside of the United Center as the Blackhawks are an ugly 4-18-1 on the road this season. A back-to-back after narrowly edging the worst team in hockey does not look good entering this one.
In addition to sitting 31st in the overall standings, they also rank 31st in overall offense and 29th in overall defense. The power play is 31st and the penalty kill is 27th. The results are justified.
It's been another disappointing season in Buffalo on heightened expectations. Only the Senators have been worse in the Atlantic Division. The underlying data isn't as bad as they rank 17th in xGF% at 5v5 and 13th in xGF/60 at 5v5. Additionally, they rank 18th in xGA/60 at 5v5. Not great, but it's right there with the likes of first-place teams like the Rangers and Bruins.
Nonetheless, there is zero excuse for the home team not to pounce in this one. Buffalo was off on Tuesday after taking care of business with a 3-0 win over the Sharks on Monday. They've been massively inconsistent, but it's a similar scenario against a lowly road team tonight.
Let's grab another puck-line winner, this time with the Sabres on home ice.
Pick: Sabres puck line -1.5 (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, RotoBallers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
