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Man, what a wild Divisional Round weekend. Cincinnati cleaned up the first half cover by leading outright over the Titans. Meanwhile, the Bucs looked dreadful in the first half, thinking the Team Total was entirely out of reach. Well, that wasn't the first time Tom Brady told us not to doubt him. Embarking on a major comeback, Tampa Bay tied it up late in the fourth, sending them over the team total and giving me a 4-0 playoff record so far with my betting picks. Onto the Conference Championships!
- 2021 Season: 17-25-1 (40%, -9.6u)
- Spread: 8-5, +2.3u
- Total/Team Total: 7-13-1, -6.4u
- Moneyline: 0-5, -4.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for the Conference Championships of the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Under
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Sunday 1/30, 3 PM EST | O/U: 54.5
Cincinnati had an absolute slobberknocker with Tennessee in Divisional Round, pulling it out 19-16. This dynamite offense had no issues throwing the ball, but when it came to running the ball with Joe Mixon, that wasn't happening as he totaled just 54 yards but he did find the end zone once. Joe Burrow and co. were able to sling the rock for 354 yards but not one touchdown, which is something they'll absolutely need to fix this week to keep up with Kansas City. Then we stop on the defensive side of the ball and things get ugly for Cincy. Sure, they've held their two playoff opponents to under 20 points, but they've still allowed over 350 yards of offense in their L4 games.
In what was one of the most exciting games I can remember, the Chiefs looked exactly like we expected them to. Despite facing a usually strong Buffalo defense, Patrick Mahomes looked calm, cool, and composed. He threw for 378 yards and three scores, while also rushing for another. Tyreek Hill and his speed makes things very difficult for defenses, and paired with Travis Kelce, this offense is everything we expect. Defensively, they have some glaring holes, like how they let Gabriel Davis score all four of Buffalo’s passing touchdowns last week. They did allow Allen to rush for 68 yards, but that’s not so much of Burrows game, so they’ll be able to focus more on Mixon.
To be honest, I don't love anything main line with this game. Could Cincy keep it close? For sure. Could Kansas City stick it to them early and often? Without a doubt. I don't have a good enough judge on Cincinnati right now to go one way or the other. For sake of the picks article, I'm going under the 54.5, because my brain tells me this is going to be a shootout.
Pick: Under 54.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Sunday, 1/30, 640 PM EST | O/U: 45.5
The 49ers defied the odds last week and took down the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, 13-10. They didn't score an offensive touchdown and their MVP was kicker Robbie Gould. Could we consider it a fluke from the offense? Yeah, probably, considering they've tallied over 340 yards of offense in every game since Week 12. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't impress a soul and he's got a 2/6 TD/Int over the L4. However, considering how the team uses Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell, the 49ers can get creative in ways that allow Garoppolo to be effective. Defensively, they've tallied five sacks in both playoff games along with a takeaway in each game. Led by Nick Bosa, this defense could very easily cause fits to the Rams.
A lot of football fans pinned the Rams to be Super Bowl contenders in the preseason, and here we are with them in the NFC Championship game. In what looked to be a cruise to victory last week ,they wound up in a late-game dogfight. The four turnovers are not e recipe for success, come playoff time, but they had struggled with ball security to end the season too. Matthew Stafford has insane weapons in the passing game and has been better with decision making in the playoffs. They also have a healthy backfield with Cam Akers and Sony Michel, but after their performance against a strong Tampa Bay front seven, they have their hands full again with San Francisco. Defensively, this is where the Rams are impressive and it all starts with Aaron Donald. He'll need to be the lead on getting pressure on Stafford and forcing bad throws to guys like Jalen Ramsey.
Far too many people are doubting the Rams right now. While the 49ers have an impressive defense and are aided by some electric offensive players, but this Rams team is just too strong all around. I got them -3 as soon as the lines dropped, but it's now bumped up to -3.5. I'm still fine with this play as I think LA wins by five or six.
Pick: Los Angeles -3.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet 1.1 to win 1 Unit
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