X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/6/22)

luka doncic NBA dfs lineup picks daily fantasy basketball advice

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/6/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Oh man, we were so close to another perfect night! Player props went a perfect 4-0, the Heat blew out the Hornets, and the Bucks cruised over their team total. But the last two bets missed by one point each! The Grizzlies tied the game against Utah at the buzzer and then proceeded to lose by six in overtime. I went to bed with the Suns having 98 points after three quarters thinking they'd surely cover their 121.5 team total only to wake up and see they scored only 23 points in the fourth after pulling their starters in a convincing win over the Lakers. 6-2 is still a solid night and the model was right about a few other spots, so I am happy about that and ready to drop some more picks today for this six-game NBA slate.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, April 6, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 188-161-2
  • Against the Spread 83-71-2
  • Over/Under 36-46
  • Player Props 69-44
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks

Dallas Mavericks (-9) @ Detroit Pistons (220 total)

The Pistons are 20-12 this season ATS as home underdogs and have been quite friendly to bettors in the second half of the NBA season as they've been covering as hefty underdogs quite often. They've won three games in a row now, including a surprising upset of the Sixers last Thursday. As soon as I saw this spread this high, I knew I'd likely be in on the Pistons with the points here.

Let's talk about Dallas though for a minute. I respect what they've done this season and how they've managed to get the most of their role players. They are a really good, probably underrated team and Luka is a star. However, their recent results are a bit screwy. They just beat the defending champion Bucks by six on the road but also lost by 32 to Washington the game before. Perhaps the Washington loss was fluky, but I do think they tend to play down or up to their competition a bit.

I'm taking the improved Pistons to cover here, though I do think Dallas wins.

The Pick: Pistons +9 (-110 DK)

 

Brooklyn Nets (-7) @ New York Knicks (232 total)

The Nets beat Houston last night, but let them hang around a bit longer than they should have and the Rockets trimmed the lead to 10 points in the fourth quarter at one point. Brooklyn has to turn around and play the Knicks tonight in a game that will likely be tougher than you (or they) might think.

The Knicks were one of only a few teams off last night and have the rest advantage here. Those splits are something I look at every day, but I usually don't weigh them a ton unless I see some major trends. Brooklyn is only 3-9-1 ATS this season on back-to-backs and the Knicks are 12-8 ATS when they have the rest advantage. Those two trends paired together make for a compelling case for the Knicks.

And then when we look at the season series, it only confirms my Knicks pick! Consider that even though Brooklyn is 3-0 against New York this season, they've won those three games by a combined 10 total points (an average margin of victory of 3.3 points).

So I'm in on the Knicks as home dogs to cover, but I also like this total and you can see in the model it's way over where I would expect it to be. I have this game much closer to a typical NBA game with a projected 222 total. And again, when we look at the season series, we see that the totals of the first three matchups were 222, 217, and 217. So I'm grabbing the spread and total here in this one.

The Pick: Knicks +7 (-110 DK)

Bonus Pick: UNDER 232 (-110 DK)

 

Washington Wizards (+10.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (231 total)

The Wizards are getting absolutely no respect with this line, despite beating a playoff team last night by 18 points on the road. Washington has been pretty decent down the stretch and while they lost by 40 to Boston (who is just playing at an unreal level right now), they also have an impressive win against Dallas in their most recent five-game stretch.

I just really never, ever trust the Hawks - and if you have read this column this year, you know that. I had the Raptors covering against them yesterday and it was the one pick I was really on but didn't include based on not enough supporting trends. The Hawks are just really poor on defense and missing John Collins' inside presence late in the season. With both teams having played yesterday, the advantage here in the trends goes to Washington, who has been one of the best teams with no rest (8-4) while Atlanta has been one of the worst (5-10) this season ATS.

Again, this is just too big of a number, and as I said with the Detroit-Dallas game, I'm definitely more inclined to take some worthy underdogs with the points today than I am jumping on heavier favorites.

The Pick: Wizards +10.5 (-110 DK)

 

Boston Celtics (-7) @ Chicago Bulls (222 total)

I wanted to include something from this game earlier this morning, but still don't feel good about laying seven points on the road with the Celtics, despite the overwhelming support for them to handle the Bulls in this one. Chicago gets Zach LaVine back, but their still struggling defensively and have allowed 116 points per game over their last ten. They're fading down the stretch and their defense is going to be what prevents them from making a run in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Boston is surging and scoring points in the process of racking up wins. They're averaging 123 points per game over their last ten and we rode their team total the other day in another good spot. This total is surprisingly low to me with Chicago being on the second half of a back-to-back and I want to take advantage of that by jumping on the Boston total at only 115.5. They've scored exactly 114 points in each of their first two meetings with the Bulls this season, but those games were much earlier in the season when Chicago was playing much better defense and Boston wasn't in such great offensive form.

Celtics team total over 115.5 (-115 DK)

 

Phoenix Suns (+2.5) @ L.A. Clippers (229.5 total)

I'm totally backing off the Suns here as they've moved from -3 to +2.5 as bettors are anticipating that they rest guys tonight. If they play their guys, then maybe jump on them as underdogs but this is no longer a bet I endorse until we know who is playing for Phoenix.

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Al Horford over 22.5 PRA (-105 DK) - If it ain't broke, don't fix it! Big Al has hit his PRA prop three straight times since taking over at center for Robert Williams III and today gets a Bulls team playing their second game in two nights. He's about as reliable as they come as a rebounder and passer, and usually scores just enough to put him into the 25-30 PRA range with starters' minutes.

Obi Toppin over 26.5 PRA (-120) - Toppin has finally been given big minutes for the Knicks late in the season with Julius Randle shut down and has 28 and 31 PRA in his most recent two starts at PF. I think the Knicks keep this one close and Toppin gets there.

Dorian Finney-Smith over 1.5 3PM (-175 DK) - DFS didn't get there last time for us, but is in another good spot for him here against Detroit. The Pistons allow a lot of open looks for spot-up shooters and DFS gets most of his shots up on offense on spot-up threes when Luka penetrates. He just needs two tonight and shoots the long ball around 39%. He has two threes or more in 8 or his last 10 games.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

No parlays today, make some of your own using my model!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Victor Robles10 mins ago

Expected To Miss 12 Weeks With Fracture In Shoulder
Jeff McNeil12 mins ago

Taking Batting Practice, Close To Rehab Assignment
Tyrone Taylor18 mins ago

Getting Another Start For Mets
Luis Torrens24 mins ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Spencer Strider32 mins ago

Expected To Throw 90 Pitches In Thursday's Start
Francisco Alvarez44 mins ago

Takes On-Field Batting Practice Tuesday Afternoon
Andrew Benintendi1 hour ago

Not In Tuesday's Lineup After Sunday's Early Exit
Hunter Cranton2 hours ago

Sidelined With Concussion
Ryan Lasko2 hours ago

Hits Seven-Day Injured List
Francis Pena3 hours ago

Headed To Extended Spring Training
Matt Vierling3 hours ago

Cleared To Start Throwing Program
C.J. Culpepper3 hours ago

Hits Injured List, Having Trouble Increasing Workload
Bryce Eldridge3 hours ago

Placed On Double-A Injured List
Gleyber Torres3 hours ago

Might Not Need A Rehab Assignment
Jake Rogers3 hours ago

Scratched With Oblique Tightness
Manuel Margot3 hours ago

Tigers Place Manuel Margot On 10-Day Injured List With Knee Inflammation
Jonny DeLuca3 hours ago

Rays Place Jonny DeLuca On 10-Day Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Royce Lewis3 hours ago

Weeks Away From Starting Rehab Assignment
David Peterson3 hours ago

Lined Up To Start On Saturday
Cody Bellinger3 hours ago

Out Tuesday With Food Poisoning
Zach Neto5 hours ago

Continues Strong Rehab Assignment
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Grayson Rodriguez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Injury News

Top 25 Injured Players to Stash for Fantasy Baseball - Week 2 (2025)

Welcome, RotoBallers, to another installment of the Injured Players to Stash for Fantasy Baseball series as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. Today, we list the top 25 high-profile injured MLB players worth stashing in your leagues, including names like Royce Lewis, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Neto, and more. Whether managers had to […]


Jordan Lawlar - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookies

Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Prospects to Stash (Redraft): Eric Cross' Rookie Rankings for Week 2

With Low-A, High-A, and Double-A starting this past Friday, we now have all four minor league levels in full swing as thousands of players aim to become fantasy-relevant players. Or just reaching the Majors in general. Same thing. We had several notable prospect promotions last week, including Chase Dollander and Zac Veen getting the call […]


Dylan Cease - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks

MLB DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel Expert Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Today (4/8/25)

It's a cold day, RotoBallers, and I'm ready with the Tuesday edition of our MLB DFS picks. I'll be giving my insight every week on this day to help you cash in your DFS contests, and hopefully, I will be able to provide more as the summer comes. Tonight, we have 10 games to look […]


Chris Sale - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Starts and Sits - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball (April 7 - April 13)

The MLB season is off and running, and so are we with our starting pitcher starts/sits for fantasy baseball Week 2- Monday, April 7 through Sunday, April 13. We've gotten a couple of looks at most pitchers by now, but the sample size remains small, which means we remain diligent! Bookmark us for every start/sit option […]


Dennis Santana - Fantasy Baseball Closers, Waiver Wire Pickups, Bullpens and Saves

Champ or Chump: Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, Clay Holmes Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

We've reached the second week of the 2025 MLB season, and as expected, Rafael Devers is not the worst player in the league. Players have twice as many games played (or more) than they did this time last week, but we're still working with tiny samples. You shouldn't blindly overreact to this season's stat lines. […]


Kris Bubic - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Tyler Mahle, Kris Bubic, Kumar Rocker

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 1 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. It feels so good to be back! For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put […]


Quinn Mathews - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookie Rankings

Top-5 MLB Pitching Prospects To Stash For Fantasy Baseball Redraft Leagues - Week 2 (2025)

Welcome back to our top starting pitcher fantasy baseball prospects to stash for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. Even though the regular season has just started, there is no better time to look ahead and identify high-upside stashes. Last season, we saw several prospect pitchers become league-winners as soon as they reached the […]


Luis Garcia - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 2)

Welcome back to a new season of The Cut List as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those who are not familiar, this is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling […]


When Will Grayson Rodriguez, Brandon Woodruff, George Kirby Return? Fantasy Baseball Injury Update

We are over a week into the MLB regular season, and fantasy baseball is off to a flying start for many squads. Like MLB teams, it's been a bumpy start for some fantasy teams. One contributing factor to many slow starts is injuries to key players. Specifically, starting pitcher injuries can be hard to overcome […]


Tyler Soderstrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Risers, Fallers and Buys/Sells - Chris Clegg's Outlooks for Week 2

Welcome back RotoBallers to my dynasty fantasy baseball risers, fallers and buys/sells for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. We are just one week into the MLB season and three games into most minor league levels, but there is still plenty of baseball to talk about. I mean, we have already had some prospects […]


Corbin Carroll - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB News, Draft Kit

MLB DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel Expert Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Today (4/7/25)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! My name is Brandon, and this is my debut with the MLB team! You can find me and my work with the NHL and Soccer teams, respectively! Tonight, we have a seven-game slate, and the currently live top-three highest implied team totals are: San Diego with 4.7, Arizona with 4.5, and New […]


Riley Greene - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB News

Fantasy Baseball Players To Watch For The Week Ahead (April 7 - April 13)

With the first week in the books, welcome back to my weekly Players to Watch for the Week Ahead series for 2025 as we look ahead to the week of April 7 - April 13. In this article, I'll look at players like Logan O'Hoppe, Riley Greene, Spencer Schwellenbach, and others. For those who are not […]


Felix Bautista - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low for Week 2? (2025)

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our weekly article about well-known fantasy baseball players. During each week of the fantasy season, we will identify which big-time players are in a slump and determine what we should do with them in fantasy (drop, hold, or sell low). These difficult decisions could be the difference in winning your matchups every […]