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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/5/22)

Chris Paul

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/5/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Welcome...to the Jungle! That is the NBA betting landscape currently as we have only six days of regular-season games remaining. There are still teams with plenty to play for in terms of seeding, but we know for the most part which ten teams are going to qualify for the postseason at this point with the Lakers being the one exception should they win tonight and go on a run (highly unlikely, but not impossible). I'm coming off a mediocre day on Sunday where I hit both spread bets but missed the game and team totals badly. There are 12 games tonight and I've spent more time analyzing them than I probably should have this morning to try to find some angles. I think we have a few but definitely check back later this afternoon for player props, too.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, April 5, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 182-159-2
  • Against the Spread 82-70-2
  • Over/Under 35-45
  • Player Props 65-44
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks

Charlotte Hornets (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (225.5 total)

The Heat are 3-0 against the Hornets this season, winning the first two games easily and then needing two overtimes to beat Charlotte by four points in their third meeting. Miami was good to us on Sunday, coming back against Toronto to cover and win outright in a hard-fought game against a surging Raptors team. They did that without their star Jimmy Butler, mind you, who should be back in the lineup here tonight. Kyle Lowry is iffy for this one but sounds like he's going to try to play so Miami should be at full health - which is bad news for Charlotte.

The Heat aren't the top seed in the East for no reason, this is a battle-tested, chip-on-their-shoulder club that showed a lot of resiliency this season. They win with excellent team defense and rebounding, and are yet another example of how the "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" approach in the NBA has worked beautifully this season (see also, CLE, MEM, PHX, GSW).

The Hornets did get Gordon Hayward back and have played better down the stretch. But they're just not on Miami's level and the Heat have mismatches inside (Bam against Plumlee and Harrell) as well as on the perimeter (Butler vs. Charlotte wings) that they should take advantage of in this one. Miami has the sixth man of the year in Tyler Herro coming off the bench, too, giving them the advantage with their second unit.

Five and a half points is a weird number here, but the more I've been looking at it, the less worried I get. I think the Heat cruise in this one and win comfortably. On a night with a bunch of really big spreads, this is a good team with a very manageable number.

The Pick: Miami -5.5 (-110 DK)

 

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) @ Chicago Bulls (228.5 total)

This game matters a bit more for Chicago than Milwaukee, as the Bulls could still technically drop out of the top-6 and into the play-in if they lose a few more games this week and teams like Toronto and Cleveland both win out. But the Bucks are suiting everyone up as of right now and are the clear favorites here as they should be. They're 3-0 against the Bulls this season and some of my Chicago fan friends know the Bulls' record against the top teams in each conference is abysmal (so I won't repeat it here now).

Chicago is still a good team, though, and they're not likely to be blown out as they were in the last meeting between these two. Their defense still is very mediocre at best, even with Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams back as Lonzo Ball continues to be out.

My model likes the over here by about four points, but I'm going to adjust that a tad and go with just the Bucks team total in case the Bulls struggle offensively. We need the Bucks to score 117, which they have in 10 of their last 11 wins (and even a few of their losses, too).

The Pick: MIL team total OVER 116.5 points (-115 DK)

 

L.A. Lakers (+11.5) @ Phoenix Suns (231.5 total)

So it looks like both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable for this game and I'm not totally convinced that either of them plays. It feels more and more like a lost season for the Lakers and they'd much rather pack it in and blame coaching, injuries, and whatever else they can think of for this terrible year and failing to meet expectations. Even with a healthy and productive Anthony Davis, the Lakers still lost to Denver on Sunday and our Denver team total went soaring over as L.A. continued their recent pattern of poor defense.

A fully healthy Suns team is this Laker defense's worst nightmare. I've called them the Death Star before and watching their offense with Chris Paul at the helm, Devin Booker knocking down shots, and everyone else knowing their role is a thing of beauty. Phoenix is 3-0 against L.A. this season and they casually dropped 140 points on them in their last meeting without CP3 in the lineup (and LeBron played in that game). I'm all of this Suns' team total as they're averaging 122 points per game over their last ten, while the Lakers are allowing nearly 124 points to their opponents in the same span.

The Pick: PHX team total over 121.5 (-120 DK)

 

Memphis Grizzlies (+5) @ Utah Jazz (221.5 total)

The Grizzlies are five-point underdogs? On what planet? Are they playing the Monstars or what? I'm trying to figure out what's going on with this line because it simply doesn't make any sense to me. Yes, I know Ja Morant is out but if you've been reading this column you'll know that Memphis is still 17-3 ATS without Morant this season. Dillon Brooks is doubtful, too, but the rest of the Memphis squad should be ready to roll as the starters were all rested over the weekend and haven't played in four days.

I have Memphis favored here (barely) as I have that much respect for their ability to compete any given night no matter who is in their lineup. They've been a superior team compared to Utah in every way this season and are 2-0 against them head-to-head. I'll gladly take the five points here and probably put a smaller amount on the money line, too. Utah simply doesn't defend all that well and relies entirely too much on Donovan Mitchell to carry their offense. They have some other shot-makers such as Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson, but I still think Memphis is the all-around better team and they play with a physicality that can't be matched by the Jazz. Adams is the perfect big man to give Gobert trouble on the interior and the Grizzlies guards should have their way with the aging Mike Conley and defensively-challenged Mitchell.

The Pick: Memphis +5 (-110 DK)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Darius Garland over 33.5 points/assists (-110 DK) - I had to shop around to get the lowest number here and I entertained the PRA at 36.5, too, but let's not worry about rebounds. Instead, let's focus on what Garland does extremely well - score and pass. He had 25 points and 12 assists against Orlando when they met just a few weeks ago and I expect him to have another big outing today in a good matchup and must-win scenario for Cleveland.

Tre Jones over 23.5 PRA (-110 DK) - The spread makes me a tad nervous here as Denver is now favored by over nine points, but they also have let plenty of lesser teams hang around this season. Tre has been damn good as the starting point guard this season when DJM is out, averaging 13-5-7 in 8 starts. I like using guards against Denver, too. If he's going to be DFS chalk (and for good reason) let's cash in on his PRA number being a few points too low, too.

Fred VanVleet and Drew Eubanks both over 1.5 BLK/STL (+155) - I rarely include a player prop combo but this one is juicy. FVV averages over a half-block per game which is elite for a guard and has been on a tear lately with four, six, seven, and three "stocks" in his last four. Meanwhile, Eubanks had 5 "stocks" of his own the last time that Portland met OKC - the team that allows the second-most defensive stats to the center position (after Houston).

Steven Adams over 8.5 rebounds (-130 DK) - Adams is averaging over 11 boards per game over his last five games and nearly ten per game this season. His playing time fluctuates a lot depending on game flow, but he should be needed tonight to combat the size of Rudy Gobert on the interior. He has averaged 9 or more boards in head-to-head matchups with Gobert in eight of their last ten meetings.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

I don't do this often but how about a crazy ole' 6-team parlay? (always go easy on the units on these big parlays!)

The Pick: Raptors/Heat/Nuggets/Cavs/Bucks/Pelicans ML Parlay (+711 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
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Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
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Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
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To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
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Takes Positive Step On Friday
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Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
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To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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A Game-Time Decision Friday
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Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
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Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
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Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
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Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
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Set For Featherweight Bout
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Looks To Bounce Back
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Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
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Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
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An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
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Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
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A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
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Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
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Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
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Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
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Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
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Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
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Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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