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Friday night's game featured two games that came down to the wire and one big ole' Bucks blowout. The Miami Heat choked away game three in the fourth quarter, costing me a chance at going 3-0 on sides last night and busting up my parlays. Jimmy Butler took some ill-advised shots on the final two possessions while Trae Young made a huge shot in the closing seconds to secure a one-point win and ensure that Atlanta wouldn't be swept.
I thought the Bucks would bounce back, but I didn't anticipate they'd throttle the Bulls as they did in game three. If anything that just proves to me that Chicago's game two win was flukier than ever. The Suns needed big efforts from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton to hold off those pesky Pelicans, but they now lead their series 2-1, also. Props only went 1-2 last night and I've admittedly gone cold on them this postseason, but we will keep after it. Today and tomorrow we have four-game slates and despite having to also cover MLB and wanting to sleep, I couldn't resist making some picks for you. It's the NBA Playoffs, c'mon! There are no days off!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 31-34
- Against the Spread 12-12
- Over/Under 3-4
- Player Props 14-18
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/23
Philadelphia 76ers (-3) @ Toronto Raptors (213.5 total)
So here's where I have to get a little weird with my picks today. I was ready to bury the Raptors after seeing Joel Embiid hit a game-winning three in overtime of game three as that felt like a back-breaking blow to their chances of making this a competitive series. But then yesterday we found out that Embiid has a torn ligament in his thumb. Embiid plans to play through it, but we have no idea how it might affect him or his shooting. I honestly thought that the Sixers might even sit him down and try to win game four without him, having the advantage of being up 3-0 in the series.
The Embiid injury opens the door for the Raptors here, if even ever so slightly. We've seen plenty of teams up 3-0 take their foot off the gas before, and the underdogs who are living to fight another day play their guts out trying to stave off elimination. I'm not one to make picks based on narratives, but in the postseason, I think they may carry some more weight than usual. And to be fair, Toronto is at home and covered this spread in game two.
I think Toronto either wins a close game or they get blown out, I don't see too many outcomes in between. I'm going to roll with the Raptors here in game four and take them to win outright at some nice odds. I think they can win here and push this series to five games, sending it back to Philadelphia where the Sixers probably close them out there.
The Picks: Toronto ML (+130)
Dallas Mavericks (+5.5) @ Utah Jazz (212.5 total)
Why are the Mavericks still such heavy underdogs after going up 2-1 in the series? I'm not sure that I get it, but I suppose bettors simply aren't convinced they're that good or they are waiting for Utah to wake up. Guess what, people, this is who Utah is! The Jazz are a "good but not great" team and their inability to stop a Dallas team without its star has proven that.
Guess what else? Luka Doncic could return tonight! So Utah could be in big trouble here. I'd say they play better with their backs pressed up against the wall a bit, but I am not sure they're capable of playing that much better. They are getting 30+ per night from Donovan Mitchell and 20+ from Bojan Bogdanovic. They simply have no answers defensively for the Mavs small-ball lineups. They even tried benching Rudy Gobert and playing Eric Paschall as a small-ball center late in game three.
The Jazz are bewildered and the Mavs are playing with the utmost confidence. I like them to cover here even if Luka doesn't suit up, and if Doncic plays, I will be betting the Dallas money line as well, as I think they win if he's able to play even half his minutes with his usual effectiveness.
The Picks: Mavs +5.5 (-110), Mavs team total OVER 103.5 points (-115)
Boston Celtics (+3) @ Brooklyn Nets (222.5 total)
Today I happen to be on a bunch of underdogs after I was on all three favorites last night. I hate that I love these Celtics so much. Let me clarify. I don't like the Celtics, I have always hated their franchise and most of that came out of the fact that they were always good and their fans always annoyed me. What I am trying to say is that I love watching THIS Celtics team play and I find myself rooting for them in this series. Some of that could be due to my loathe for Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, but either way, I'm pulling for Boston here.
My rooting interests never impact my picks though, I promise! Boston should be favored here and I've backed them in both games one and two, so it should be no surprise to you that I am on them again. Reports are that they will get starting center Robert Williams III back today in a limited fashion. After tearing his meniscus, he's healed faster than anticipated and even 15-20 minutes of Williams is going to be a big boon to this Celtics interior defense and rebounding. Al Horford does a great job but has physical limitations of being undersized, and let's face it - he's old.
Boston has all the momentum here. They stole game one with a buzzer-beater and then battled back in game two from a big deficit to cover with ease. I'm not sure what else to say about this series at this point, other than Boston's players trust each other and are the more cohesive unit on the floor. They're tough, gritty, and find ways to get offensive rebounds, and loose balls. Tatum and Brown make big shots and never shy away from big moments. I like Boston here as they are the better TEAM despite Brooklyn having the two best players in the series.
The Pick: Celtics ML (+135)
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (232.5 total)
This series has been...crazy. The last two games have seen a ton of fouls that have really impacted how these teams want to play. It was Memphis who got into foul trouble early in game three and Minnesota raced out to another huge lead that was reminiscent of the lead they blew (but eventually recovered) in game one.
They didn't recover in game three. They ended up losing by nine points despite having a 20-point or better lead TWICE at different points during that game. I'm sure Minnesota fans are sick about it, so I won't rub it in, but it certainly feels like they've missed their chance at grabbing the upper hand in this series. I've been on Memphis from the beginning of the series and that doesn't change tonight. When they're clicking, they're a really tough team to stop as Morant has the ability to create his own shot and get open looks for shooters Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane.
JJJ is a walking foul, but probably the most athletic dude on the floor at all times and when he's making shots it's almost like found money for Memphis. Brandon Clarke has been huge in this series and is a real problem for Minnesota with his athleticism and ability to score on the pick and roll. Memphis just keeps coming at you with more guys and they can deploy so many different types of lineups by going really small with Kyle Anderson at the four, or much bigger with Clarke and Jackson both out there at the same time.
The T-Wolves just seem out of sorts. Who is their go-to guy? Is it KAT? Is it Edwards? Is it Russell? I wouldn't totally count them out in this series if they can win tonight, but I think the much more likely outcome is a Memphis win and for the Grizz to head back home up 3-1 (sorry, Kyle Ringstad!).
The Pick: Grizzlies -3 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Donovan Mitchell over 30.5 points (-110) - The Spider is 3/3 on this prop in the series, scoring 32 points twice and 34 points in game two. Win or lose, I think he's likely going to get there as he's taking a huge volume of shots and has two games already with double-digit free throw attempts, too.
Ja Morant over 8.5 assists (-125): We hammered this at 7.5 last game and he had another 10-assist night in game three. He played 40 minutes in game three and the ball is in his hands every possession. With shooters flanking him and capable finishers like Clarke and JJJ inside, it's very feasible for him to get there yet again tonight.
OG Anunoby over 27.5 PRA (-110): The Raptors are fighting for their lives and so I expect their starters to continue to basically play the entire game as they did on Wednesday. OG is 3/3 hitting this prop in the series and Scottie Barnes is still out today, so I'm firing him up and hoping the Raptors can win one to extend the series.
Bruce Brown over 9.5 assists/rebounds (-125): Brown had a terrible game one, but in game two we saw him have another huge performance where his production returned to what we saw against Cleveland in the play-in game. His scoring can be erratic, but he crashes the boards and has been a great passer, finding Claxton on lobs for dunks and feeding Kyrie/KD coming off screens.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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