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I'm looking for that big night to flip my record as I'm languishing a few games under .500 this postseason. The night started off great with the Grizzlies overcoming two big deficits to pull out the win and cover. Ja Morant hit his assists props and things were looking good. I didn't bet the Utah game but was kicking myself for not having some more faith in Dallas, who I had backed with the points in both games one and two. Rudy Gobert was benched for a long stretch and fought foul trouble, so he didn't get the boards we needed.
The Nuggets continue to break my heart. They made a few solid runs last night and even led the game at one point in the fourth quarter. But Golden State was just too much once again, and the Nuggets are now staring at elimination this weekend. We have three more games on the slate tonight, all with close spreads as the favorites are all on the road in game three of their series.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 28-31
- Against the Spread 10-11
- Over/Under 3-4
- Player Props 15-16
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/22
Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (221.5 total)
So we have a pattern here in all three games tonight. Each of the road teams is favored, but not by much. While the Bucks and Suns are dealing with the loss of a major star in their series, Miami is likely going to be at full health tonight, assuming Bam Adebayo plays. They're my favorite...favorite on the night, as I still have them well ahead of Atlanta in terms of overall talent, defense, and toughness.
The Hawks battled in game two and showed they weren't going to lay down in this series. But in doing so, they also awoke playoff Jimmy Butler who decided to take matters into his own hands and drop 45 on Atlanta with big buckets down the stretch in the fourth quarter.
Trae Young's greatness is not lost on me, but in the playoffs, I will take Jimmy Buckets all day. He's not going to rely on three-pointers to get his, he's going to get to the basket, get fouled, and continue to attack the heart of the Hawks defense that is missing center Clint Capela and his rim protection.
Miami has been excellent on the road all season, so with the series shifting to Atlanta, I am not all that concerned. I like Miami to cover here, but with the spread so narrow I am not taking any chances. I will just bet the money line for slightly worse odds (-120 compared to -110) just in case it takes a last-second shot or a free throw to win here. I'm not taking any unnecessary risk!
The Picks: Miami ML (-120 DK)
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) @ Chicago Bulls (223 total)
This series just got really interesting. The Bulls pulled out a huge win in game two and now head back to Chicago to face a Bucks team that just lost Khris Middleton for the rest of this series at least. Between the road disadvantage and the cappers dinging the Bucks for the loss of Middleton, we now see the Bucks as only 2.5-point favorites here while they were favored by nearly 10 points at home in games one and two.
Call me crazy, but I'm buying the Bucks on the road. Yes, they're without Middleton, but they still have the MVP in Giannis, who was still unstoppable in game two. Jrue Holiday should step up, and Brook Lopez has not been stopped yet in this series, either. They have plenty of depth on the wings in Wes Matthews, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton to make up for Middleton's shooting and I think they also have the intangible "rally around the injured teammate" narrative on their side here, too. On paper, the Bucks were worse without Middleton this season, going 7-9 without him but only marginally worse in their overall net rating. It's not enough to move the needle all the way to Chicago for me.
The Bulls needed 41 from DeRozan to win by four in game two. I don't think he can do that every night, and that win was the first time Chicago had beaten Milwaukee this season in five tries. I'm back on the Bucks here. I'll have the money line in parlays and I will probably buy this spread down to -2 or -1.5 for some additional safety, but they are perfectly playable at the current number of -2.5, too.
The Pick: Bucks -2.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns (-1.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (216.5 total)
Did you pick on my theme yet? I'm taking the opportunity to get the better team in the series at a very coverable number in each of these games tonight. Much has been made of the loss of Devin Booker, and there is no doubt that the Suns aren't as good without him. But if there is one team that has the depth and quality of talent across the roster to weather the storm and advance without their best scorer, it's Phoenix.
When we look at game two, there are some outliers that I saw from the Pelicans that simply won't happen again. they shot 17-30 from downtown, good for 56%. They clearly found some success with the small ball lineup of Ingram-McCollum-Jones-Nance-Murphy and I love what they did there, but I don't think that type of offensive output is sustainable.
The Suns are going to play through Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton and they're smart enough to take advantage of the mismatches they get. Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Johnson will all need to step up and make shots, but they're perfectly capable of doing so. Crowder and Johnson were a combined 1-11 from three in game two, and neither of them are likely to shoot that poorly again.
The Suns had the best road record in the league this year, going 32-9 with an average margin of victory of six points. This spread doesn't give Phoenix nearly enough credit, and again I am willing to back the better overall team here to win what is basically a pick 'em.
The Pick: Suns -1.5 (-115)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Chris Paul over 11.5 assists (-145 DK) - This prop is starting to get some juice, but Paul gets a big assist boost without Booker and has averaged 12 per game through two games in this series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 13.5 rebounds (-135 DK): Rudy G let us down on his rebounds prop last night, but Giannis has been crushing the boards against the Bulls so far with 17 boards per game. He should pick up a few extra with Middleton out, too, and playing 40 minutes a night in the playoff games just raises his overall counting stat projections considerably.
Trae Young over 4.5 turnovers (-135 DK): This is rarely a prop type that I bet, but you can't ignore how often Trae has turned it over already in this series. He has 16 TO through two games, which is 8 turnovers a game! He already averages 4.1 per game this season, so the increased playing time, usage, and the tough Miami defense has created a windfall of turnovers so far.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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