RADIO
So I took the weekend off from the NBA betting and just played a little DFS. Things are going to get interesting here down the stretch as most teams have about 18-20 games remaining in the regular season. We are seeing the playoff picture in both conferences shake out and some teams go full tank mode by running out a bunch of young players for big minutes. This makes things tricky as the data won't always point to the right answer on a nightly basis and I'll be trying my best to wade through the mess and find some more reliable games to target on a nightly basis.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, March 7, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 117-109-2
- Against the Spread 62-52-2
- Over/Under 25-36
- Other/Props 30-22
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (+7.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (232 total)
Let's get a couple of things out there first. Yes, the Sixers do have James Harden back tonight and they are 4-0 with him in the lineup and have a massive +17 net rating in those wins. They were handled by the Heat without him the other night, too, showing us that the supporting cast surrounding the Harden-Embiid core is pretty beatable by good teams and I'm buying into the "Harden effect" here that he does indeed elevate this entire team.
And the other caveat here is that Nikola Vucevic is questionable for tonight's game but his coach said that he thinks he should play. I'd be surprised if he missed, as this is a huge game with playoff seeding on the line.
This line just feels too big considering the Bulls have been (even with all the injuries) a top-4 team in the East. If Philly is clicking on offense then Chicago could be in trouble, but we saw the Cavs hang with Philly the other night before eventually fading in the final minutes and I view Chicago similarly to Cleveland and they're likely better than the Cavs when they get Caruso and Ball back. I'm banking on DeRozan, LaVine, and Vucevic battling here and the Bulls keeping this game close.
The Pick: Bulls +7.5 (-110)
L.A. Lakers (+2) @ San Antonio Spurs (234.5 total)
The Lakers pulled out a huge win at home on Saturday night, beating the Warriors 124-116 on the strength of 56 points from King James. Does that mean they have momentum and are about to right the ship? Eh...maybe, but I think what it really means is LeBron is still capable of putting any team on his back on any given night and beating anyone. That game was more of a testament to LeBron's greatness than it was a sign that the Lakers are improving.
This brings me to my pick for tonight's game - the Spurs. San Antonio has been a better team than L.A. all season and I have them as 4-5 point favorites tonight at home. Dejounte Murray is a burgeoning superstar and has a solid cast of young players surrounding him. LeBron is still the best player in this game, but the Spurs are better everywhere else and have a deeper bench. LeBron can't carry the Lakers every night, I think the Spurs win this one and they don't need to win by much to cover.
The Pick: Spurs -2 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Houston Rockets (+14.5) @ Miami Heat (224 total)
This bet looks pretty solid from all angles and there are some solid trends to back it. The Rockets just played last night and pulled off a big upset of the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies laid an egg there and everyone knows it as Houston is an even bigger underdog tonight in Miami. But most importantly, this back-to-back means Houston is more likely to give allow more points than usual as they've allowed almost two more points per game to opponents in games where they are playing on no days rest.
Over the last ten games, they've allowed a whopping 123.5 points per game on average to opponents which is way up from their season average of 117.5. Miami isn't usually thought of as an elite offensive team, but they can be very efficient on offense thanks to some sharpshooting three-point marksman like Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler finds a way to get to the line to get his even on nights when he's not making shots. I like the Heat to go over 120 points here in either scenario - whether they blow out the Rockets or if the game is close.
The Pick: Heat Team Total OVER 119.5 (-120)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update
Bam Adebayo over 35.5 PRA (-115) - We know that big men smash against Houston and we saw first-hand last night that even lesser bigs (no offense Steven Adams) can do serious work in the paint against the Rockets. The only thing really stopping Bam here is if this game gets out of control too early.
Kevon Looney over 7.5 rebounds (-130) - The Warriors may only have 8-9 players tonight and Looney is projected to pick up another 7-8 minutes of playing time. As an elite rebounder on a per-minute basis that bumps his rebound projected up around 10 and he should cruise over this number.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: 4-team ML Parlay = ATL/MIN/MIA/DEN (-105)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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