X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/4/22)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/4/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Friday nights in the NBA are where it's at! There's nothing better than being welcomed to the weekend by a big old 9-game slate. To recap last night's picks it was an overall loss mainly due to player props. The Hawks pulled off the upset to kick things off, but the Grizzlies weren't able to get it done in Boston. The Warriors and Mavs scored a whole bunch of points killing our under but the Clippers came through late with a blowout of the hapless Lakers. Reggie Jackson crushed his assists prop, but Terrance Mann went the entire first half without a rebound. Poeltl just missed his PRA prop and Seth Curry missed his points prop, too. Just to remind you, I usually put out my spread and total bets in the morning then I update this article no later than 3:00 PM with any player props that I love as the books are usually slow to get them up or are waiting on injury updates.

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, March 4, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 114-106-2
  • Against the Spread 61-50-2
  • Over/Under 25-36
  • Other/Props 28-21
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Indiana Pacers (-3.5) @ Detroit Pistons (230.5 total)

Detroit pulled out a nice road win last night in Toronto, but barely as they only won by two points despite leading by 15 going into the fourth quarter. The Raptors were ripe for an upset without several key starters and playing so many games in such a short period since the break.

The Pacers came through for us last time, though it took overtime for them to cover against the Magic in that one. I've said it before but I am intrigued by this new look Indiana team and I think they're going to give good teams trouble and win some games against bad teams down the stretch.

Malcolm Brogdon and Tyrese Haliburton make a formidable backcourt duo and Buddy Hield finally has the green light to fire away from deep. The trio of Brissett, Jackson, and Smith inside is an exciting group and they've basically nudged Goga Bitadze all the way out of the rotation.

Detroit is on a back-to-back here and their point differential in those games this season is third-worst in the league at -12.8. I know they've played better lately, but I think they got their big win last night and we see Indiana handle them here.

The Pick: Pacers -3.5 (-110)

 

Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) @ Washington Wizards (221.5 total)

Part of me feels like I should be going back to the well on the Hawks here and that I should just be thankful they came through in the fourth quarter last night in a big win over the Bulls. Trae Young is just special and it's really fun watching him in clutch time. Not only was he making big shots, but he was also finding his shooters for open looks. Even without John Collins, this Atlanta team has been scrappy and there is a fairly large talent gap here between them and Washington.

The Wizards still haven't got to see Porzingis in action yet since they acquired him and they're basically playing a bunch of young guys who they want to get a look at for their rebuild. Kyle Kuzma has been fantastic and there are some good young players on this team, but Atlanta really needs to keep winning as they're fighting for a playoff spot and I'll take them here based on their solid recent play and Trae Young's clutch factor. The Hawks find a way to win (and cover) tonight.

The Pick: Hawks -2.5 (-110)

 

Minnesota Timberwolves (-8) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (230.5 total)

Okay so I know the Thunder hurt us against the Kings, but I'm going back to them tonight despite my better judgment probably. Is this team good? No. Do they continue to surprise teams? Yes - just ask the Nuggets who got caught sleeping on them on Wednesday night. OKC pulled off a 12-point upset of Denver behind 29 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 26 from big man Isaiah Roby.

The Wolves are having their best season in some time, but their defense is not their strength as the fact that we have a game with the Thunder in it that has a 230-point total is proof that everyone in Vegas knows that. Minnesota is missing Anthony Edwards again tonight and their overall point differential this season is only +1.3. That tells me they've been in a lot of close games and gives me some hope that the Thunder (who remember have the second-best record ATS in the league this season) can hang with them or even steal a win.

I'm not predicting the upset, but I like the home dogs here with the points. In SGA we trust!

The Pick: Thunder +10 (-110)

 

NBA Totals Betting Picks

No totals picks today. Scoring continues to be on the rise in the league in the second half and even when I weigh the most recent 10-game sample more highly in my model I'm still getting a ton of unders in my projections.

If you wanted to take a shot at Cavs-Sixers under, it's the biggest discrepancy in the model but we have seen some increased offensive efficiency from the Sixers in the Harden era and I'm probably not going there today.

 

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

3:00 UPDATE

Tyrese Haliburton over 3.5 rebounds (-125) - Haliburton had only three boards last time out but had four or more in six straight before that. He's very active on the boards for a guard and locked into big minutes alongside Brogdon.

Scottie Barnes over 25.5 points/rebounds (-125) - No FVV again tonight and Orlando has allowed nearly three more points/boards to the PF position than league average. Barnes has a double-double in three straight games and has cleared this number with relative ease.

Clint Capela double-double (+105) - This is really reliant on John Collins' status but I think he's probably going to be out again since the Hawks just played last night and we haven't had any positive updates on him. The Wizards allow 2.6 points/rebounds more than league average to centers and Capela has two double-doubles in his last five games while flirting with one the other night (8 points, 9 rebounds) in only 18 minutes against Toronto.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: 3-team 5-point teaser (+150)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Seiya Suzuki

Returns For Series Opener Against Phillies
Willy Adames

Knocks In Go-Ahead Run In Win
Wilyer Abreu

Cools After Hot Start
Vinnie Pasquantino

Continues Dismal Start
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Josh Naylor

Drives In Run In Loss
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Garrett Crochet

Dealt Second Loss
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Rhett Lowder

To Throw A Bullpen Session On Saturday
Aidan Miller

Showing Well At Double-A Of Late
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
J.J. Wetherholt

Absent From Lineup All Week
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Jac Caglianone

Roams Right Field At Double-A On Thursday
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
Sebastian Walcott

Smacks Second Home Run Of 2025
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kenley Jansen

Records His Sixth Save Of The Season
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Miguel Vargas

Homers Against The Twins On Thursday
Hunter Goodman

Delivers In Game 1 On Thursday With Two Hits
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Christopher Morel

Home Run Seals Victory For Rays
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Zach Neto

Hits Go-Ahead Home Run On Thursday
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Tallies Three Hits In Win Against Arizona
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Pete Fairbanks

Picks Up Fourth Save On Thursday
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Picks Up Save On Thursday
Corbin Burnes

Picks Up Eight Strikeouts In Thursday's Start
MacKenzie Gore

Strikes Out Eight In Loss On Thursday
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jaxson Dart

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall
Matthew Golden

Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF