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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/20/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
With only four games in the league yesterday, I opted to take the day off from betting and making picks and enjoyed some college basketball. Thank goodness for the St. Peter's Cinderella story because I realized yesterday that I simply don't enjoy watching college hoops nearly as much as I did when I was younger. The NBA is simply a superior product and it spoils you after a while because you get used to watching players who make incredible shots, defensive plays, and passes with great regularity and the college game is a lot slower and sloppier. With a big slate of games today (9), I decided to bring you the first-ever Sunday edition of NBA Best Bets as we wind down the final few weeks of the regular season.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Sunday, March 20, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 138-131-2
- Against the Spread 69-61-2
- Over/Under 29-40
- Other/Props 40-31
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-3) @ Denver Nuggets (222 total)
By now you all know I like taking some stands on close games and betting on bad teams lately hasn't really worked out all that well (see Friday's article when I had the Clippers +6 and they got demolished or a few slates before that when I tried taking bad teams like Orlando and Indiana with the points against superior opponents).
This matchup intrigues me and it sets up to be one of the more competitive games on the day. The Celtics are playing as well as anyone in the league right now and I'll admit they have surprised me as I thought they were likely heading for the play-in tourney as a fringe playoff team. They're 8-2 over their last ten with a +9 net rating and not really a team that I want to pick against usually.
But I'm going to because I am a believer in this Denver team and the man, the myth, the legend who is Nikola Jokic. Now my Cavs were able to pull out a big win (and we had them on Friday) against Denver, but this team is still trending in the right direction and playing well. They lost the only meeting with Boston so far this season back on February 11th, 108-102 but have gone 12-4 since then and I'll point out they didn't have starting point guard (for now at least as Jamal Murray's return is close), Monte Morris, in that game.
The Celtics will throw Robert Williams III and Al Horford at Joker tonight, but neither of them has the size to really bother him and I think he's going to put on a clinic in the post. We saw another skilled big man Domantas Sabonis go for 30-20 against Boston the other night and it serves as a reminder that their undersized frontcourt can struggle with skilled 7-footers. I'll probably bet them with the points and put a smaller amount on the money line as I think the Nuggets can battle here and grab a hard-fought win at home in this one.
The Pick: Nuggets +3 (-110) or Nuggets ML (+130)
San Antonio Spurs (+6) @ Golden State Warriors (229.5 total)
Betting on the Spurs is a bad habit that I wish I could quit. I don't smoke, I don't even really drink. But I have a soft spot for these Spurs and it seems like they keep winding up in these favorable spots where my model likes them more than other bettors or Vegas. If Stephen Curry was playing, I wouldn't dare go against the Warriors at home but without him this season the Warriors have a really poor net rating and they are coming off a demoralizing loss against the Celtics in which they were dominated in every aspect of the game.
Perhaps Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson can pick up the slack on offense, but I'm a bit bearish on Golden State being able to maintain their elite level of play without Curry, who was the consensus front-runner in the MVP race for the first few months of the season.
I've said this a dozen times before but the Spurs are NOT A BAD TEAM! They win games they probably shouldn't (and lose plenty they shouldn't either). They're well-coached and have a number of exciting young players who will compete on a nightly basis with Dejounte Murray emerging as a superstar this year. I just think six points is too many for this Spurs team and I like their chances of making this a game or pulling off an upset. I'm backing the road dogs here (I know, two underdogs today, Dan - and going against two really good teams?)
The Pick: Spurs +6 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Toronto Raptors (+5.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (223.5 total)
I'm going right back to the well on the Philly under here again after we were able to comfortably hit that bet in their win against Dallas on Friday. While Toronto isn't as good defensively as Dallas, they have been a top-6 team in defensive rating over their last ten games. Toronto should battle the Sixers and while I think Philly wins here, I won't be surprised at all if it comes down to the final minutes. This Raptors team is gritty and getting some great play from their rookie Scottie Barnes in addition to Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet.
After a big surge in offensive productivity when Harden first arrived, the Sixers have settled in as an above-average offense. The Harden effect is certainly real as this team is definitely a contender and better suited to make a run in the East, but this isn't James Harden when he was in Houston, running and gunning. This is an offense where the Sixers are content to play through Harden and Embiid in the half-court in a much slower-paced style of play. This game projects for under 95 possessions, which is around four fewer than league average and by far the fewest of any game in the league today. On a slate with a bunch of high totals, I'm singling out this game as the one where I'm going under and my model likes it to go around eight points under the current total.
The Pick: UNDER 223.5 (good down to 220) (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
I will try to add some props later today, but it's Sunday - and I have a family - so no promises! Make sure you check out the data at the end of the article, though to help make those prop bets!
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: UTA/PHX/MEM money line parlay (+110)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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