RADIO
We are on a heater, folks! Yesterday's picks went 4-0 to follow up on undefeated picks from Sunday and Friday. It feels good to be getting stuff right and the hot streak has been a boon to my overall season record and bankroll - and hopefully to yours as well!
It's tempting to go and make a bunch of picks on a big slate like we have tonight, but I'm really just honing in on a few spots that I absolutely love to try to keep the winning percentage and profits high. You'll notice I haven't been betting game totals as much lately and that's really because of how the recent surge in scoring has confused my model after we had some below-average offense for much of the first two months of the season. The spread bets and prop bets have been buttering our bread so that's where I'm going again today.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, February 8th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 80-71
- Against the Spread 49-38
- Over/Under 21-29
- Other/Props 10-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Phoenix Suns (+1) @ Philadelphia 76ers (217 total)
The Suns are probably the only real live underdog on the slate and I'm jumping on them at these odds while I still can. I saw they opened up at +2 last night and put a little on them while I could and this line has already moved a full point in their favor.
Phoenix is fully healthy and they are reminding everyone just how good they are. They had an epic 18-game winning streak earlier this season and then another 11-game winning streak in January that was just snapped when they lost to Atlanta last week. Last night they were in full control of the game against Chicago on the road throughout, despite only winning by three points.
The back-to-back shouldn't scare us too much here, as the Suns only had one player (Devin Booker) log more than 35 minutes last night and they have a deep, talented bench unit who can step up and play bigger minutes when needed. That's one of their biggest edges in this game as the Sixers bench is pretty weak and has been missing its best scorer with Shake Milton out.
The Suns are a better team than the Sixers, even if Philly does have the best player in the game with Joel Embiid going full beast mode lately. I'll take the balance that Phoenix has here and I think Philly will have a hard time stopping all of the Suns options on offense. Phoenix is the better defensive team, too.
Let's roll with the Suns are slight road dogs here. Hit this bet ASAP because I think they may even be favored by the time that this game tips tonight.
The Pick: Suns ML (-105 DK Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) @ Sacramento Kings (233.5 total)
I don't want to oversimplify this too much, but Minnesota is a good team and the Kings just simply are not. While Minnesota does have a few guys currently questionable (D'Angelo Russell, Taurean Prince, and Patrick Beverley) they still have a much more talented roster than the Kings, who have been struggling badly without their best player De'Aaron Fox (also questionable for this game, but hasn't played since January 19th).
Minnesota is 8-3 in their last 11 games with those three losses coming to good teams (Atlanta, Golden State, and Phoenix). They've been beating up on bad teams when given the opportunity and have won their last three by an average margin of 13 points. Over the last two weeks, Minnesota has impressive 6.6 net rating. Meanwhile, the Kings are 2-8 over their last ten and simply don't have the firepower to keep up with Minnesota. Haliburton is a good young player and Harrison Barnes has stepped up with Fox out, but they get destroyed by big men inside so Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to do whatever he wants.
I'll take the Wolves here and lay the points, hoping that they can get out in front early and put some distance between themselves and the Kings. I've been burned in the past by Minnesota not covering in wins, but this feels like too good of a matchup to pass up.
The Pick: Wolves -4 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Player Prop Betting Picks
There aren't too many props out this early today, but one guy I have circled already is Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans have a rematch with the Rockets today and Ingram just dropped a 33-3-12 line on these guys in the New Orleans win. That makes two games in a row with 12 assists as it seems Ingram has taken over more of the play-making role for this offense lately.
Houston bleeds points to everyone, but they've been especially bad against wings lately. Ingram's number is 36.5 on DraftKings and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number jump or the juice increase here as he could be a popular pick. I'm locking him in now and will be tempted to bet it higher, too, this is a great spot for him and this Pelicans offense.
The Pick: Brandon Ingram over 36.5 PRA (-115 DK Sportsbook)
Note: This has moved all the way to 39.5 with the trade that shipped out Josh Hart today. It's still bettable there, but not the same value he had this morning.
Reggie Bullock has been simply awesome for Dallas since entering the starting lineup. He's been the third scoring option for the Mavs behind Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson and has been on fire from deep, making 4.7 threes over his last six games. There is a lot of juice on this bet at o/2.5 right now but I wouldn't mind grabbing it at o/3.5 later today, too. Detroit gives up a ton of threes and opposing shooters are shooting over 2% better from behind the arc than league average.
The Pick: Bullock over 2.5 threes (-160 DK Sportsbook)
I might be a bit emboldened after hitting a few of these ML parlays in a row now, including a four-legger and a five-legger yesterday with all the favorites winning. But here goes nothing! Let's try another five-leg favorite parlay today.
The Pick: Boston/Atlanta/Memphis/New Orleans/Dallas ML Parlay (+218 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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