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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/7/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 2/7/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

I hope you caught this piece yesterday as I dropped a special Sunday edition of my picks and we had a clean sweep! All three main plays hit as well as my favorite player prop (Tobias Harris PRA) and the money line parlay. That makes two straight sweeps and I'm really hoping we might be hitting our stride now.

It's a lot easier writing this piece the day after I got some stuff right. And I appreciate those who tailed and reached out with thanks or a shout-out. My goal is always to help people win as often as possible and to help educate others as to how I make my daily picks, which is why I always include my data and projections.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, February 7th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 76-71
  • Against the Spread 47-38
  • Over/Under 21-29
  • Other/Props 8-4
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Toronto Raptors (-2) @ Charlotte Hornets (226 total)

The Raptors are the only small favorites on the slate as the next closest would be Miami who is currently -6 but we aren't sure about the status of some key pieces there.

I'm all over the Raptors here as I love this spot for them. There might not be a hotter team in the NBA right now than Toronto as they've won five straight and seven of their last nine games. During that stretch, they picked up a convincing 125-113 win over these Hornets, and what was even more impressive was the fact that they were without their lead guard Fred VanVleet that night.

Toronto is getting healthy and playing some great basketball of late. Over the last two weeks (7-2), they have a 3.7 net rating. Meanwhile, the Hornets are trending in the other direction with a -2.9 net rating over the same span and a 2-6 record. Both teams should have their core pieces today, but I give Toronto a major edge here based on their solid recent play. They've also been pretty solid on the road with a 12-11 mark (13-10 ATS).

VanVleet and Pascal Sikam are playing at a really high level right now, but the emergence of Gary Trent Jr. as a third scoring option has led to some elite offensive performances. Scottie Barnes would probably be the rookie of the year if Evan Mobley wasn't having the year he's having. OG Anunoby is a defensive force and the combo of Precious Achiwura, Chris Boucher, and Khem Birch are solid on the interior.

The Raptors are a better team right now and Charlotte has fizzled out after their hot start. I have Toronto projected to win by five and I'm slamming this bet today as my top-rated bet on the board. We had some luck with adding a player prop yesterday, so I'll toss in Pascal Siakam over 36 points/rebounds/assists as well. He smashed that number in their first meeting and has been averaging almost 40 PRA over these last seven games for Toronto.

The Pick: Raptors -2 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

Bonus Pick: Pascal Siakam o/36.5 PRA (-120 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Totals and Other Betting Picks

Golden State Warriors (-12.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (211.5 total)

Talk about a mismatch! The poor Thunder are running out of healthy bodies as their star guard Shai Gilegous-Alexander is out again tonight and they could be without Lu Dort again who is listed as questionable. Rookie Josh Giddey is the last talented offensive player they have left and he should have his hands full tonight as OKC has to face one of the best defenses in the league when they host the Warriors.

I'm not too proud to admit that I watched a large chunk of the Thunder's loss to Sacramento on Friday night and it was painful to see them struggle as much as they did. They managed only 103 points against a very poor Sacto defense and lost by 10 points at home to a Kings team that was without De'Aaron Fox. To say this club is "offensively challenged" right now might be too kind. They're terrible. Giddey is the only guy who can get his own shot or create for anyone else and Golden State is going to be all over him.

Without SGA in the lineup, this OKC is averaging only 98 points per game - woof. They are currently implied for 99.5 points and that's just too many points for this matchup. Instead of betting the Warriors and laying those points or betting the under, I'm taking the angle I had on the Rockets yesterday and going under the Thunder team total. I think they'll really struggle here and this one should get ugly.

With no other totals or spreads really popping, I thought I'd add another prop to the mix. Chris Paul and the Suns are facing a wounded Chicago team that is bleeding points to opponents tonight and production to both guards and big men (Embiid had 40 points yesterday). They've allowed the third-most PRA to point guards over the last two weeks in the NBA and CP3 has hit this number in seven of his last nine games. Yes, the Suns are healthy now, but CP3 is the engine that drives that offense and I look for him to have a big night either in the scoring or assist columns (or both) as the Bulls have none of their usual guards available to defend him.

The Pick: Thunder team total UNDER 99.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

Bonus Pick: Chris Paul o31.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: Miami/GSW/PHO/UTA ML Parlay (+176 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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