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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/6/22)

luka doncic NBA dfs lineup picks daily fantasy basketball advice

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 2/6/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

With no football to watch or wager on today (if you're wagering on the Pro Bowl, then you're a special type of gambler), I thought I would drop a bonus Sunday NBA best bets. There are eight games today scattered across the afternoon and evening for our viewing and betting pleasure.

To recap, Friday was a solid bounce-back day for me. All three bets from the article hit and I added the Rockets to my card later in the afternoon on Twitter (so I can't count that one on my record). It was one of those days where the macro bets, prop bets, and DFS lineups all hit and it was a thing of beauty. The record is back up over .500 and I intend to keep it there.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Sunday, February 6th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 72-71
  • Against the Spread 45-38
  • Over/Under 21-29
  • Other/Props 6-4
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bulls (219.5 total)

This is one of the best games of the day as the Sixers bring the fifth-best record in the East into Chicago to face off against the conference-leading Bulls. Chicago has climbed to the top of the standings in the East as of today despite battling injuries all season, most notably the long absences of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. However, they'll have their hands full today with a Sixers team that has already beaten them twice this season.

The Sixers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Mavericks on Friday night and have now dropped two straight games after reeling off five wins in a row before that. If both teams are fully healthy, I would probably lean towards Chicago here but the Bulls could be without Zach LaVine again today in addition to the other missing guards I already mentioned.

The individual matchups here favor the Sixers as Embiid is too much for Vucevic inside, Tobias Harris will be too much for Javonte Green, and Tyrese Maxey has really raised his play lately which will be an issue for the Bulls as their best defensive guards will be in street clothes. The power forward position has really performed well against Chicago this season so I am adding Tobias's points/rebounds/assists here as a secondary prop bet.

I'm not messing around with that half-point and potentially losing the bet if Philly wins by only one, so I'll take the ML here instead at -120.

The Pick: Sixers ML  (-120 DK Sportsbook)

Bonus Pick: Tobias Harris o/28.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (218 total)

Picking against the Hawks was a bit scary on Friday night, but the red-hot Raptors came through and handled them in the second half, making me look smart (and not just lucky?). The numbers back up this play today and so do my eyeballs as I watched Luka Doncic single-handedly dismantle the Sixers on Friday night. Luka is simply playing on another level right now and it's truly impressive what he's been able to do in Dallas this season with Kristaps Porzingis constantly hurt and a bunch of role players around him.

Atlanta is dealing with some injuries once again with John Collins and Danilo Gallinari both questionable for this game. They've been pretty bad as road underdogs this season (6-11) while the Mavericks are 9-8 as home favorites. Luka should go nuts today (play him in DFS, please) and Dallas seems to have found a solid lineup to put around Luka lately with some unsung heroes like Reggie Bullock playing well and Jalen Brunson emerging as a worthy Robin to Luka's Batman.

I like Dallas to cover at home based on the way they're playing right now and my total lack of faith in Atlanta establishing any consistency this season.

The Pick: Mavs -2.5  (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Totals and Other Betting Picks

New Orleans Pelicans (-5) @ Houston Rockets (230.5 total)

So the first thing you'll notice in the model today is that this is the biggest disparity with my projection coming in nearly nine points lower than Vegas. A lot of that has to do with some recent trends where both the Pelicans and Rockets have been scoring under their season averages. This is a pretty gross game overall with both teams being bottom feeders and it's hard to know what type of effort we are getting from these players on tanking teams on a nightly basis.

I think the Pelicans win, but I'm not confident enough to lay five points because Houston has some dudes who can play when they feel like it. I would take the under at 230.5 but I also worry that if the Pelicans do run away with this that the game goes over in garbage time as these types of games tend to do.

I have a very specific bet and angle here. I'm taking the Rockets under their team total of 112.5 points. Here's why.

Houston has exceeded that 112 points just once in their last six games and while the Pelicans suck, their defense has allowed opponents to score over 112 points just three times in their last seven games going all the way back to mid-January. The only meeting between these teams this season ended in a 118-108 win for the Rockets, showing that our under here is certainly viable and the team total under could certainly work if we flip those scores around in an expected Pelicans win.

The Pick: Rockets team total UNDER 112.5  (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: Celtics/Timberwolves/Cavaliers ML Parlay (+112 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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