RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Friday nights usually bring excellent NBA slates and tonight is no exception as we have nine games tonight including a late-night national TV game with the Sixers facing the Mavericks in Dallas on ESPN.
Wednesday was a frustrating night for me. Denver ended up sitting most of their regulars and I had to void that bet as a result. They still battled and only lost by four, but I wasn't taking any chances at that point. Betting on the Knicks to get under burned me again as they failed to slow down Ja Morant and the Grizzlies and that game cruised over its total. I thought we had a win in the OKC-DAL under, but the Mavs allowed the Thunder to tie the game late, and then it went to overtime where Dallas ended up losing as an 11-point favorite. The NBA has been wonky lately, hasn't it?
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, February 4th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 69-71
- Against the Spread 43-38
- Over/Under 20-29
- Other/Props 6-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ Indiana Pacers (231.5 total)
I'm scratching my head as to why the Bulls are such small favorites today. Yes, they're banged up and leaning hard on their core of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic to log heavy minutes and carry this team. And yes, they just played an overtime game last night against Toronto. And yes, Zach LaVine is questionable with back spasms.
Okay, wait - I think those are all the reasons why Vegas is giving the Pacers as much of a shot as they are. But let's consider that this Indiana team is rolling out Caris LeVert and a bunch of backups on a nightly basis with their top talent Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon all shelved and being potentially shopped in trades. Heck, even their best young prospect Isaiah Jackson is out tonight after getting hurt one minute into their last game (and frustrating DFS owners everywhere).
Even if LaVine sits and the Bulls are a bit road weary, I have to give them the advantage here and I think Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are more than capable of picking up the slack. Give me the Bulls here.
The Pick: Bulls -2.5 (good up to -4) -110 DK Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks (+2) @ Toronto Raptors (216.5 total)
Let's talk about the Toronto Raptors for a minute, can we? This is a team that many people (including myself) had left for dead earlier in the year while Pascal Siakam was hurt and it appeared they were simply a team that was probably looking to rebuild this year. But fast forward to February and they're now 27-23, good for 7th-best in the East, and riding a four-game winning streak.
One of those recent wins game on the road at Atlanta as they beat the Hawks 106-100 on Monday. Now the Hawks were without their best player in that one as Trae Young sat, but it's still an impressive road win for this Toronto team.
This one could go either way and honestly, the Hawks are playing some really good ball right now. They beat the Suns last night at home and really surprised me in the process. That's a really good quality win. But Toronto also beat the Bulls last night in OT, too. The Raptors run a tight rotation and push their core guys big minutes, which might be one thing to consider here, but with both teams on back-to-backs, I'm not sure it's an advantage either way.
I like the Raptors at home to cover, but it will be a close game for sure. My favorite bet here is actually the over as the model has this one going over 220 total points tonight. Both teams have been scoring the ball well of late and the lack of rest for each team usually hurts the defense more than the offense, though the trends for these two teams are pretty neutral on B2B. They combined for 206 points on Monday, but the addition of Trae Young for Atlanta is only going to increase their offensive efficiency and likely increase the overall pace of the game, which should equal more points.
The Pick: Raptors -2 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: OVER 216.5 (good up to 218) -110 DK Sportsbook
The Pick: Boston/Portland/Denver ML Parlay (+119 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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