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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/4/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Friday nights usually bring excellent NBA slates and tonight is no exception as we have nine games tonight including a late-night national TV game with the Sixers facing the Mavericks in Dallas on ESPN.

Wednesday was a frustrating night for me. Denver ended up sitting most of their regulars and I had to void that bet as a result. They still battled and only lost by four, but I wasn't taking any chances at that point. Betting on the Knicks to get under burned me again as they failed to slow down Ja Morant and the Grizzlies and that game cruised over its total. I thought we had a win in the OKC-DAL under, but the Mavs allowed the Thunder to tie the game late, and then it went to overtime where Dallas ended up losing as an 11-point favorite. The NBA has been wonky lately, hasn't it?

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, February 4th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 69-71
  • Against the Spread 43-38
  • Over/Under 20-29
  • Other/Props 6-4
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ Indiana Pacers (231.5 total)

I'm scratching my head as to why the Bulls are such small favorites today. Yes, they're banged up and leaning hard on their core of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic to log heavy minutes and carry this team. And yes, they just played an overtime game last night against Toronto. And yes, Zach LaVine is questionable with back spasms.

Okay, wait - I think those are all the reasons why Vegas is giving the Pacers as much of a shot as they are. But let's consider that this Indiana team is rolling out Caris LeVert and a bunch of backups on a nightly basis with their top talent Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon all shelved and being potentially shopped in trades. Heck, even their best young prospect Isaiah Jackson is out tonight after getting hurt one minute into their last game (and frustrating DFS owners everywhere).

Even if LaVine sits and the Bulls are a bit road weary, I have to give them the advantage here and I think Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are more than capable of picking up the slack. Give me the Bulls here.

The Pick: Bulls -2.5 (good up to -4) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

Atlanta Hawks (+2) @ Toronto Raptors (216.5 total)

Let's talk about the Toronto Raptors for a minute, can we? This is a team that many people (including myself) had left for dead earlier in the year while Pascal Siakam was hurt and it appeared they were simply a team that was probably looking to rebuild this year. But fast forward to February and they're now 27-23, good for 7th-best in the East, and riding a four-game winning streak.

One of those recent wins game on the road at Atlanta as they beat the Hawks 106-100 on Monday. Now the Hawks were without their best player in that one as Trae Young sat, but it's still an impressive road win for this Toronto team.

This one could go either way and honestly, the Hawks are playing some really good ball right now. They beat the Suns last night at home and really surprised me in the process. That's a really good quality win. But Toronto also beat the Bulls last night in OT, too. The Raptors run a tight rotation and push their core guys big minutes, which might be one thing to consider here, but with both teams on back-to-backs, I'm not sure it's an advantage either way.

I like the Raptors at home to cover, but it will be a close game for sure. My favorite bet here is actually the over as the model has this one going over 220 total points tonight. Both teams have been scoring the ball well of late and the lack of rest for each team usually hurts the defense more than the offense, though the trends for these two teams are pretty neutral on B2B. They combined for 206 points on Monday, but the addition of Trae Young for Atlanta is only going to increase their offensive efficiency and likely increase the overall pace of the game, which should equal more points.

The Pick: Raptors -2  (-110 DK Sportsbook)

Bonus Pick: OVER 216.5 (good up to 218) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: Boston/Portland/Denver ML Parlay (+119 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
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Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
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Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
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Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
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Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
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Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
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Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
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to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
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Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
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Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
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Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
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Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
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Absent on Sunday
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Placed on 10-Day Injured List
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Tyler Reddick

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a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
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Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
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Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
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Fighting for No. 3 Job
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Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
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Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
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Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
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Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
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Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
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May be A Sneaky DFS Option Who Can Pay Off for Sonoma Lineups
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Could Austin Cindric Work for DFS Lineups at Sonoma?
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AJ Allmendinger

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Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
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Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

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Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
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Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
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a Smart Play for Scottish Open
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Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
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Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
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Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
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Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
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