X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/11/22)

Dejounte Murray daily fantasy basketball NBA DFS lineup picks

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 2/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

It was another 3-1 night as both props hit and our Mavericks managed to just barely get over their total behind a huge outing from Luka Doncic. The Milwaukee-Phoenix game went over as the Suns just couldn't be stopped and I hope a few people took the Suns -3 at home as the model liked them a lot there.

It's Friday and we have our first post-tradeline slate with seven games in the association tonight. It's a somewhat small slate for a Friday night, but we certainly have a few games worth targeting with bets. I continue to excel against the spread and with prop bets, but totals have been tough. If I make some specific picks that are not game totals or spreads you'll see those tracked under the other/props category that includes player props, too.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, February 11th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 89-74
  • Against the Spread 52-39
  • Over/Under 22-30
  • Other/Props 15-5
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

San Antonio Spurs (+8) @ Atlanta Hawks (232.5 total)

While it's very clear that the Spurs are regrouping for next season after trading away Derrick White, and Thaddeus Young yesterday I still think this is one of the better young core groups of players on a non-playoff team in the NBA. And this spread is being heavily influenced by yesterday's trade in my opinion as the Hawks just really shouldn't be this heavily favored against a decent team like San Antonio.

Yes, the Spurs were better with White, but they still have a star in Dejounte Murray and some really good young wings in Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker IV who will now have the opportunity for bigger roles. Keldon Johnson is playing at a high level right now and Jakob Poeltl is a quality center.

The Spurs are only 3-7 over their last ten games but have had a brutally hard schedule. Those losses were to Brooklyn (with Harden + Kyrie), Philly, Memphis, Phoenix, Golden State, Miami, and Cleveland. This team is better than their record shows.

The trends really back the Spurs here as well. The Hawks' overall point differential is only .4 points while the Spurs are at -.3 for the season. That tells us that Atlanta rarely blows teams out and the Spurs rarely get blown out. As home favorites, the Hawks are 15-13 ATS this year but with a -1.1 differential while the Spurs are 12-9 as road dogs with a +3.5 differential.

I'm backing the Spurs with the points here and I think they keep this game close. I'm going with the numbers here which suggest the line is simply too big on Atlanta.

The Pick: Spurs +8 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

Denver Nuggets (+6) @ Boston Celtics (219 total)

I'm definitely going against the grain here and I don't mind it one bit. The Celtics may have won six straight games, but they've been beating up on bad teams and the Nuggets simply aren't a bad team and will have the best player on the floor tonight in Nikola Jokic (sorry to all the Jayson Tatum stans out there).

Yes, I'm backing two road dogs to cover on the same night, but I have to go where the numbers and the trends tell me to sometimes. Denver is 7-3 over their last ten games and playing really well right now. They have a +2.3 point differential as road dogs this year while the Celtics are -1.2 as home favorites.

Sometimes you have to pick with streaks and sometimes you have to look to go against them. The best thing here is we don't even need the Nuggets to win this game, just to keep it competitive to the final possessions which I think they can do. Jokic is perfectly capable of carrying this team to a big road win and we've seen Denver beat plenty of other good teams this season. I'm backing the Nuggets with the points on the road.

The Pick: Nuggets +6 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Totals Betting Picks

Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) @ Detroit Pistons (226 total)

There was a time earlier in the season where we were betting the over in Charlotte games just about every night and winning money. But as the season goes along it's important to recognize that trends change and you can't simply keep going back to the same spots all the time.

This is one of five games projected to go under tonight, though I don't have it going as far under as I have the Spurs-Hawks, Nuggets-Celtics, or Wolves-Bulls. I'm less interested in those unders as those games all feature good teams that have been scoring a lot of points lately. I don't know many people who would call the Pistons a "good team" and I think we are all starting to doubt whether or not the Hornets are even an "average team" at this point.

The Hornets are reeling right now and have not been scoring like they were earlier in the season. But it's equally important to note that they also have not been giving up nearly as many points on defense, too. They're now 26-29-1 this season at going over which is a total reversal from the trend we saw early in the season when their games were going over with ease.

Detroit is a disaster right now, too, as they've dropped six games in a row and have scored only 103 points per game over their last ten games. Their best offensive player, rookie Cade Cunningham has missed five straight and is questionable again tonight. Without him in the lineup this season, they've managed only 99 points per game this year.

Someone has to win tonight, but I'm banking on the Pistons continuing to struggle to score the ball. I'm taking their team total under 109.5 points. Consider that they've only gone over that number three times in the last month!

The Pick: Pistons' team total under 109.5 points (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

I'm running a bit short here on time to get this thing out in time for you to act on these bets so I will spare you some of the explanations here. I really like all the Spurs props, but I'm going to feature Dejounte Murray here. I also really like the Bulls guys in that massive 240-point total game, but the matchup is probably the best for Zach LaVine and he could continue to have more ball-handling duties if Ayo Dosunmu is out again which could boost his assist totals.

The Pick: Dejounte Murray over 40.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)

The Pick: Zach LaVine over 35.5 PRA (-115 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

No Teasers or Parlays tonight!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

 

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trent Grisham

Activated From Paternity List
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome, Ogbo Okoronkwo Could Be Available Via Trade During The Draft
Tobias Myers

Activated Off Injured List, Starting On Thursday
Arizona Cardinals

Paris Johnson Jr. Completely Healthy This Offseason
Jacob Stallings

Nick Martini Sitting In Game 1
Carolina Panthers

Derrick Brown Expected To Be Ready For Start Of Season
Jorge Polanco

Sitting Against Lefty
Denver Broncos

Broncos Fielding Calls For No. 20 Pick In NFL Draft
David Festa

Optioned To Triple-A

Browns, Giants Both Like Jaxson Dart
Willi Castro

Placed On 10-Day Injured List

Kevin Stefanski Thinks Travis Hunter Can Succeed As Two-Way Player
Hagen Smith

Showing Strikeout Potential At Double-A
Texas Rangers

Kohl Drake Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Robby Snelling

Tallies Nine Punchouts For The Second Time This Season
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Javier Rivas

Continues Hot Start To High-A Regular Season
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Chase Petty

Strikes Out Seven On Wednesday
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Cade Horton

Shines On Wednesday
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
NFL

Browns, Giants, Patriots Receive Calls For Picks Nos. 2-4
Austin Wynns

Collects Three More Hits on Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Closes Out Reds Win
Trevor Larnach

Launches Another Long Ball
Oneil Cruz

Keeps Stacking Stats
Logan Webb

Works Six Scoreless Innings In Giants Win
Christopher Morel

Mashes Second Homer Of The Season
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Chandler Simpson

Extends Hitting Streak To Four Games
Jacob Melton

Quiet Since Returning From Injured List
Lazaro Montes

Hits Home Run No. 5
George Kittle

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Tyler Lockett

Joining The Titans

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
New Orleans Saints

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice

Taking Part In Offseason Program

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog

Likely To Play In Game 3
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF