RADIO
It was another 3-1 night as both props hit and our Mavericks managed to just barely get over their total behind a huge outing from Luka Doncic. The Milwaukee-Phoenix game went over as the Suns just couldn't be stopped and I hope a few people took the Suns -3 at home as the model liked them a lot there.
It's Friday and we have our first post-tradeline slate with seven games in the association tonight. It's a somewhat small slate for a Friday night, but we certainly have a few games worth targeting with bets. I continue to excel against the spread and with prop bets, but totals have been tough. If I make some specific picks that are not game totals or spreads you'll see those tracked under the other/props category that includes player props, too.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, February 11th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 89-74
- Against the Spread 52-39
- Over/Under 22-30
- Other/Props 15-5
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+8) @ Atlanta Hawks (232.5 total)
While it's very clear that the Spurs are regrouping for next season after trading away Derrick White, and Thaddeus Young yesterday I still think this is one of the better young core groups of players on a non-playoff team in the NBA. And this spread is being heavily influenced by yesterday's trade in my opinion as the Hawks just really shouldn't be this heavily favored against a decent team like San Antonio.
Yes, the Spurs were better with White, but they still have a star in Dejounte Murray and some really good young wings in Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker IV who will now have the opportunity for bigger roles. Keldon Johnson is playing at a high level right now and Jakob Poeltl is a quality center.
The Spurs are only 3-7 over their last ten games but have had a brutally hard schedule. Those losses were to Brooklyn (with Harden + Kyrie), Philly, Memphis, Phoenix, Golden State, Miami, and Cleveland. This team is better than their record shows.
The trends really back the Spurs here as well. The Hawks' overall point differential is only .4 points while the Spurs are at -.3 for the season. That tells us that Atlanta rarely blows teams out and the Spurs rarely get blown out. As home favorites, the Hawks are 15-13 ATS this year but with a -1.1 differential while the Spurs are 12-9 as road dogs with a +3.5 differential.
I'm backing the Spurs with the points here and I think they keep this game close. I'm going with the numbers here which suggest the line is simply too big on Atlanta.
The Pick: Spurs +8 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Denver Nuggets (+6) @ Boston Celtics (219 total)
I'm definitely going against the grain here and I don't mind it one bit. The Celtics may have won six straight games, but they've been beating up on bad teams and the Nuggets simply aren't a bad team and will have the best player on the floor tonight in Nikola Jokic (sorry to all the Jayson Tatum stans out there).
Yes, I'm backing two road dogs to cover on the same night, but I have to go where the numbers and the trends tell me to sometimes. Denver is 7-3 over their last ten games and playing really well right now. They have a +2.3 point differential as road dogs this year while the Celtics are -1.2 as home favorites.
Sometimes you have to pick with streaks and sometimes you have to look to go against them. The best thing here is we don't even need the Nuggets to win this game, just to keep it competitive to the final possessions which I think they can do. Jokic is perfectly capable of carrying this team to a big road win and we've seen Denver beat plenty of other good teams this season. I'm backing the Nuggets with the points on the road.
The Pick: Nuggets +6 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) @ Detroit Pistons (226 total)
There was a time earlier in the season where we were betting the over in Charlotte games just about every night and winning money. But as the season goes along it's important to recognize that trends change and you can't simply keep going back to the same spots all the time.
This is one of five games projected to go under tonight, though I don't have it going as far under as I have the Spurs-Hawks, Nuggets-Celtics, or Wolves-Bulls. I'm less interested in those unders as those games all feature good teams that have been scoring a lot of points lately. I don't know many people who would call the Pistons a "good team" and I think we are all starting to doubt whether or not the Hornets are even an "average team" at this point.
The Hornets are reeling right now and have not been scoring like they were earlier in the season. But it's equally important to note that they also have not been giving up nearly as many points on defense, too. They're now 26-29-1 this season at going over which is a total reversal from the trend we saw early in the season when their games were going over with ease.
Detroit is a disaster right now, too, as they've dropped six games in a row and have scored only 103 points per game over their last ten games. Their best offensive player, rookie Cade Cunningham has missed five straight and is questionable again tonight. Without him in the lineup this season, they've managed only 99 points per game this year.
Someone has to win tonight, but I'm banking on the Pistons continuing to struggle to score the ball. I'm taking their team total under 109.5 points. Consider that they've only gone over that number three times in the last month!
The Pick: Pistons' team total under 109.5 points (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Prop Bet Picks
I'm running a bit short here on time to get this thing out in time for you to act on these bets so I will spare you some of the explanations here. I really like all the Spurs props, but I'm going to feature Dejounte Murray here. I also really like the Bulls guys in that massive 240-point total game, but the matchup is probably the best for Zach LaVine and he could continue to have more ball-handling duties if Ayo Dosunmu is out again which could boost his assist totals.
The Pick: Dejounte Murray over 40.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)
The Pick: Zach LaVine over 35.5 PRA (-115 DK Sportsbook)
No Teasers or Parlays tonight!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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