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We were SO CLOSE to a clean sweep on Monday night, but the Wizards lost by six and couldn't cover 5.5, which is where they were when I wrote them up in this piece on Monday morning. I actually grabbed them shortly after at +6 so that game pushed for me, but I have to go with what was in the article and so they were the only loss on the night. A 4-1 night will do wonders for the season record though!
We have 13 games on a huge NBA slate tonight. I actually like more totals than spreads today, but i am going to write up a few of each and give you some options to bet on this evening. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, December 8th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 40-47
- Against the Spread 22-15
- Over/Under 13-15
- Teasers/Parlays 5-17
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Philadelphia (-6) @ Charlotte (215.5 total)
We just saw these two teams battle it out on Monday with the Sixers finally pulling out a three-point win in overtime against a scrappy undermanned Charlotte team. The Hornets have been such a fun team, and it's too bad they're so short-handed for this back-to-back with Philadelphia because I would probably be picking them to win if they had one of Rozier or Ball in this game.
Philly continues to play down to their competition this season and is one of the few teams who actually have a worse defensive rating when compared to last season. Even if they don't want to admit it, they really miss Ben Simmons' presence on defense. Maybe Charlotte used up all their shot-making on Monday, but I've watched this team enough to know that they play incredibly unselfishly and the core of Hayward, Bridges, Washington, and Martin have enough offensive firepower to hang with Philly.
Maybe I am chasing this spread and Philly dominates, but I like the Hornets' chances of hanging with them again here at home. And if you're not liking this spread, then you should definitely at least hit the over, which is one of the top modeled bets according to the chart today. Even without overtime, these teams combined for 238 points on Monday.
The Pick: Charlotte +6 (-115 DK Sportsbook)
BONUS PICK: Over 215.5 (good up to 218) -115 DK Sportsbook
Oklahoma City (+7) @ Toronto Raptors (208 total)
This game is a bit tricky when it comes to parsing through the trends and data. OKC has been much better ATS this season than Toronto in terms of their overall record, however, we have to consider that they have been heavy underdogs in a lot of their games, so just because they are beating the spread it doesn't mean they are covering by much. In fact, their overall +/- ATS is still negative and they did lose a game by 80 points just last week.
The Thunder does have their best two players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, back in the lineup and is coming off a win against another bad team. However, they should still be overmatched here with the Raptors being a much better team on offense and defense. Toronto has won two straight games and my model likes them to win this one by double-digits. Considering that OKC has lost by an average margin of 10 points as underdogs and by a margin of 14 points on the road, I like the Raptors' chances of handling them by more than seven points!
The Pick: Raptors -7 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Denver Nuggets (-2.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (213.5 total)
It's no secret that I like betting the unders on both of these teams, so when they're facing off against each other, it only makes sense to look hard at the under. This game rates well in the model (I have it projected five points under the current total) with some trends to back it up. Denver is has gone under their total in 12 of 23 games while New Orleans had done it in 16 out of 26 (tied for the most in the NBA). I project this game for only 95 possessions tonight, which is a full four possessions less than league average and the slowest-paced game on the slate. I really think the offensively-challenged Pelicans will struggle against Denver's defense and the Nuggets are perfectly happy winning games 100-95. We are going under here for sure!
The Pick: UNDER 213.5 (good down to 211) -110 DK Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets (-6) @ Houston Rockets (227.5 total)
This total doesn't make any sense to me, I've been monitoring it since it opened and it's been going up, not down! And it's some clear reverse line movement as the majority of the money has come in on the under. Something is up, and if you're someone who is hesitant to go against the "smart money" then you may want to avoid this total.
But like c'mon Dude! I have this game projected nearly 12 points under the current total! My best guess as to how this total got so inflated is because Houston is on a six-game winning streak and averaging 119 points scored during that stretch. That number, however, is quite a bit inflated by a 146-point outing against Charlotte and four of those wins came against New Orleans, Orlando, and Oklahoma City (twice).
Is this Houston team for real? They're without their starting point guard Kevin Porter Jr. and facing a good Brooklyn team tonight. The trends line up for the under with both teams going under more often than over this season and the back-to-back for Brooklyn only further points to the under as they are 3-1 on unders without any rest this year.
I'm not afraid to go against the line movement here and dig in on the under. The more this total goes up, the more potential value is created in my opinion.
The Pick: UNDER 227.5 (good down to 223) -110 DK Sportsbook
With three totals that really stand out, I'm going to tease them all together and give us some wiggle room if our individual bets miss by a point or two.
The Pick: PHI-CHA over, DEN-NO under, BKN-HOU under 4.5 point teaser (+150 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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