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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/4/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.
Welcome to the weekend and there's no better way to spend Saturday night in than watching (and maybe betting on) seven NBA games, right? Maybe I am just in a good mood today after watching my Cavs put a beat down on a pretty solid Wizards team last night, leading by as many as 30 points at one point in a dominant road win.
The best part was I recommended them as a play in this article yesterday, so literally a "win-win" for me in that regard. The Lakers and Clippers did their part by going over their total, but the Hawks choked their game away and kept us from a near-perfect night as they fell to a Tobias-less Sixers team in their game. We have some great games tonight and I am focusing on three games in particular that I am betting spreads or money lines so this will be the first time I don't feature a total.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, December 4th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 33-45
- Against the Spread 17-13
- Over/Under 11-15
- Teasers/Parlays 5-17
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Miami Heat (+6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (213.5 total)
This spread honestly surprises me. What makes Vegas so certain the Bucks should be this heavily favored without their best player (and reigning league MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo? Milwaukee has been pretty bad in the two games he's missed with a -6.9 net rating in those games. They lost to an inferior Toronto team on Thursday night and were manhandled by this Miami team earlier in the year (granted in that game Miami was fully healthy and the Bucks were without Holiday and Middleton).
Meanwhile, the Heat got back on track last night with a big win over Indiana. They struggled against the Cavs on Wednesday (but lately, who hasn't - am I right?) but led wire to wire against the Pacers last night. This Miami team is tough and well-coached and guys like Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro are perfectly capable of filling it up on offense while Dwayne Dedmon and P.J. Tucker have picked up Bam's slack on the interior just fine.
This game should be ugly and I give Miami the edge here, even on a back-to-back. If you feel bold enough you can bet them to win, but for now I am just going to bet them to cover and keep this one close til the final buzzer.
The Pick: Miami +6.5 (-105 DK Sportsbook), It looks like you can get them +7 on FD Sportsbook, too.
Chicago Bulls (+3) @ Brooklyn Nets (222 total)
This is easily the best game of the night as far as two really good teams being matched up against each other. Brooklyn pulled out a tight win last night against Minnesota to improve to 16-6 this year while Chicago has beaten Charlotte and the Knicks (two pretty solid teams) in back-to-back games.
The Bulls have been one of my favorite teams to bet on this year as they have been awesome ATS this season. With a healthy Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup, their offense is about as good (and balanced) as any team in the East and their defense has been vastly improved this year with the additions of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso.
The Bulls handled this Brooklyn team 118-95 back in early November and while James Harden and Kevin Durant are some of the best offensive players in the game, I give the Bulls the edge here as they simply have more depth and they benefit greatly from not being so dependent on only 1-2 players. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up lately for Brooklyn, but their role players and bench simply haven't given them much.
When you factor in the back-to-back for Brooklyn and the good recent form for Chicago - on top of the dominance they showed in the first matchup, this makes me like the Bulls in this one. I'll be betting on them with the points and straight-up as I think they get a big win on the road tonight.
The Pick: Bulls +3 (-110 DK Sportsbook) and/or Bulls ML (+130 DK Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics (-1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (211 total)
This feels like a gift but seeing Boston only barely favored gets me pumped as I think they have a clear advantage over this wounded Portland team tonight. The Celtics battled Utah last night but came up just short. There is no shame in that as Utah is one of the better teams in the league. Normally I would shy away from a team who played their core-four guys big minutes on a back-to-back, but Boston rested Jaylen Brown last night and should have him in the lineup tonight, which should allow them to reduce the minutes of guys like Smart, Tatum, and Horford.
I want to keep attacking this Portland team without Damian Lillard. They were abused by the Spurs the other night and now they are going to be without Lillard's replacement Anfernee Simons, who has functioned as their best bench scorer for much of the season in addition to some spot starts. Portland has been really bad (-14.6 net rating) in the three games without Dame, that's just an incredible stat.
We have some good trends here backing Boston, too. They are 9-7 ATS as the favorite this year while Portland is 0-6 as the underdog - woof! Boston is also 8-4 ATS on the road this year and 2-1-1 ATS on back-to-backs. With Brown back in the lineup, I think they are easily a better team than Portland in their current state. I'm willing to back them -1.5 but also would consider betting them at higher spreads to get better odds (see below).
The Pick: Boston -1.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) and/or Boston ALT SPREAD -5 (+150 DK Sportsbook), you can always move that number up as high as you like and I personally think you can bet Boston as high as -7 or even -8 in this one.
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
I can't find any totals I really like today! Check back later as I could always add one or I might add some plays via Twitter, but the only games that really stand out on the model are the unders in Brooklyn-Chicago and Golden State-San Antonio and I simply don't trust those based on some recent trends.
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
NO TEASERS OR PARLAYS TODAY!
NBA Betting Picks: Positional Stats Matrix
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I use these when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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