X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/31/21)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/31/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

It's the last NBA slate of the year! Happy New Years' Eve, my fellow NBA brethren and welcome back to my NBA best bets article. New Year's eve is always a fun slate of NBA games, but obviously, we are still seeing team rosters ravaged by COVID health and safety protocols. That won't stop me from making a few NBA bets and after crunching the numbers, I think there are still a few spots we can attack!

Today is yet another adventure in the world of COVID protocols and injuries so just be warned! Remember to continue to keep checking spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot)  especially if players are ruled in or out. Several of these spreads have already moved a lot since I started my research this morning!

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 31st, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 64-70
  • Against the Spread 36-25
  • Over/Under 19-22
  • Other/Props 4-4
  • Teasers/Parlays 5-20

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Phoenix Suns (-4) @ Boston Celtics (215 total)

This is the early afternoon game so I hope you are catching this article in time! Both teams have some key players missing due to injuries and health/safety protocols, but Phoenix has the depth to be in a better position to handle it. As long as Chris Paul and Devin Booker are out there, I have a lot of faith in the rest of the Suns' role players rallying around their stars.

The Suns have been one of the best teams in the league this year and the interchangeable parts aspect of their wing players (Cam Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder) has certainly helped them win a ton of games. They're solid defensively and JaVale McGee has shown the ability to fill in when starter Deandre Ayton is out.

The Celtics really miss Jayson Tatum when he's out and to an extent, Dennis Schroder, too, as he provides some much-needed ball-handling and scoring for a team that lacks it. This team just dropped their last two games to Minnesota and the Clippers - both of whom were missing the majority of their starters. I think Phoenix takes care of business in this one and four points aren't all that much to lay considering the margins by which the Suns have been winning this season.

The Pick: Suns -4 (-115 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Miami Heat (-3.5) @ Houston Rockets (216 total)

This spread made me do a double-take and I suppose the reason that Miami is only favored by 3.5 points has a lot to do with how many of their players are out. There is really just one player that matters to me here and it's Jimmy Butler, who is currently questionable. Butler is easily the best player in this game and has shown the ability to put Miami on his back plenty of times. He happens to have the sixth-man of the year healthy to help him, too, in Tyler Herro. Houston will certainly compete in this one, but Miami is the better team, even if they are short-handed.

My gut says Butler plays as he knows his team badly needs him and fellow veteran guard Kyle Lowry is still out. As long as Butler is in, I am in on the Heat at this number. I will bet it now in the hopes he plays, but I will also caution everyone that it's no guarantee that he plays and if you want to be extra cautious you could wait on this one for some confirmation.

The Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook). You may want to wait for an update on Jimmy Butler and then pounce quickly.

 

Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (226.5 total)

I honestly was set to bet some overs on this game and the Memphis game, but the model is showing that these totals are a bit inflated already and I think they will only go up. Instead, I'm going to do what I have done for much of the season - bet against the Lakers!

This worked out poorly on Tuesday as they ended up covering against Houston, but they came right back to Earth on Wednesday when they lost to Memphis. The Lakers are a one-man show right now as LeBron James has been playing at a whole different level, but they still have been terrible against the spread this season and their defense continues to be a huge issue. The Blazers are short-handed here and are really missing Jusuf Nurkic's presence inside. But this is a prime spot for Damian Lillard to take over and go nuts (like we saw Morant do on Wednesday). Lillard and Norman Powell might be able to carry this offense and the improved play of Nassir Little and Larry Nance Jr. as undersized big men might be enough to contain the Lakers on the other end.

I'm taking the Blazers with the points, even though I acknowledge they've been poor as underdogs and on the road ATS this season.

The Pick: Blazers +5.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

NO TEASER OR PARLAY PICKS TODAY! Feel free to build your own using my model (and your best instincts!)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shohei Ohtani2 hours ago

Threw "Light" Bullpen On Thursday, Will Throw Again On Saturday
Alec Marsh2 hours ago

Shut Down For At Least Seven Days
Ryan O'Hearn2 hours ago

Adley Rutschman, Ryan O'Hearn Sitting On Saturday
Pavin Smith2 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Geraldo Perdomo2 hours ago

Batting First On Saturday
Oswaldo Cabrera3 hours ago

Not In Saturday's Lineup
Cody Bellinger3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Saturday
Jason Heyward3 hours ago

Gavin Sheets, Jason Heyward Sitting Against Lefty On Saturday
Miguel Amaya3 hours ago

Sitting On Saturday
Brooks Lee3 hours ago

Making Progress In Recovery
Tim Tawa3 hours ago

Promoted To Major Leagues
Ketel Marte3 hours ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Iván Herrera4 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Out Of Lineup On Saturday
Will Smith4 hours ago

Getting The Day Off Against Phillies
Gleyber Torres4 hours ago

Feels Great After Taking Swings
Clarke Schmidt4 hours ago

Making First Rehab Start On Saturday
Spencer Strider4 hours ago

Looks Great In Second Rehab Start
Ceddanne Rafaela4 hours ago

Getting The Day Off
Luis García Jr.4 hours ago

Luis Garcia Jr. Sitting Against Left-Hander
Keibert Ruiz4 hours ago

Jacob Young Resting On Saturday
José Ramírez5 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Leads Guards To Win With Three Homers
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts Of All Time - Le'Veon Bell, Peyton Hillis, LeSean McCoy, and more

Fantasy football managers have the fear of picking busts fresh in their minds every season because every year, players who are thought to be headed for productive seasons, whether due to injury, not reaching overly high expectations, or other reasons, bust hard. Those who drafted San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey are well aware […]


Mark Andrews - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Every AFC Team's Most Overvalued Dynasty Fantasy Football Player

The 16 teams that comprise the AFC all have players that I don't think are worth, on their own, what you could get for them in trades as compensation. Not all of them are bad players, though. In fact, some of them are quite good. "Most overvalued" is a relative thing. And since there's not […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Free Agency Check - Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers and Fallers

This NFL offseason has been incredible. With big-name free agents shuffling around the league, 2025 looks like an exciting season, and we haven’t even had the draft yet! Over the last few offseasons, we have seen a massive increase in quarterbacks switching teams. This season, the list includes Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Justin […]


Kenneth Walker III - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Running Back Next Gen Stats Review - Fantasy Football Outlooks For 2025

After the 2023 season, we covered Next Gen Stats for the running back position. We highlighted rush yards over expected per attempt and the percentage of carries with eight defenders in the box. Now, it's time to examine the Next Gen Stats for running backs again, but we'll mix in other advanced metrics. Unsurprisingly, rush […]


Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams all landed in new teams ahead of the 2025 season. Formerly of the Seahawks, Rams, and New York Jets, all three of these wideouts' fantasy football values have undergone marked shifts after landing at their […]


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! We already have one week in the books, with the XFL teams off to a hot start at 3-1 while the USFL conference went 1-3. We have Houston squaring off against Arlington in the early game and San Antonio versus St. Louis in the later […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: NFL Draft QB Scouting Report!

Michael F. Florio gives his scouting report for the 2025 NFL Draft QB class. Do Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders live up the hype? Should you be excited about Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe? Plus, he goes over the deeper options in this class! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks

Well, the opening week is always full of curveballs, and 2025 was no exception. We actually saw the Birmingham Stallions lose a game, looking bad in the process. Overall, I went 3-3-1 on spreads and over/unders last week, so a bit inconvenient that neither parlay worked out. It is a short season, so the pressure […]


Isaiah Bond - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers: 5 Undervalued Draft Targets

We all know at this point who the top names are heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty will be the dynasty rookie RB1. Tetairoa McMillan will be the rookie WR1. But fantasy leagues aren't won just by getting a top-2 or three rookie pick and grabbing the best guys. Rookie drafts are also […]


Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Two-Round Start-Up Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single Quarterback

The players you select in the early rounds of dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts have a massive impact on the chances of your team winning for many seasons after the first one. So it's crucial to nail these picks, and there are a few ways you can do that. Obviously, no one's being selected in […]


Tetairoa McMillan - College Football DFS Lineup Picks, NCAA CFB, NFL Draft Prospect

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single-QB

Thankfully, fans and fantasy football players only have to wait a few more weeks for the 2025 NFL Draft. That means dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are right around the corner. While dynasty fantasy outlooks for the NFL Draft prospects will change between today and the end of April, it’s time for another dynasty rookie […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For Wide Receivers On New Teams: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, and more

The 2025 NFL offseason has been full of breaking news alerts. Last year, all the action was at the running back position, with Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs changing teams. However, all the action has been at the wide receiver position this offseason. Some big-name wide receivers remained with their current teams. Tee […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Running Back Preview: Targets & Sleepers For 2025 Drafts

While the NFL is in the middle of its offseason, the fantasy football world never takes a break. Much in the fantasy world will change between now and the start of the regular season. Yet, let’s take an early look at the running back position for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Below are three early-round studs, […]