RADIO
It's the last NBA slate of the year! Happy New Years' Eve, my fellow NBA brethren and welcome back to my NBA best bets article. New Year's eve is always a fun slate of NBA games, but obviously, we are still seeing team rosters ravaged by COVID health and safety protocols. That won't stop me from making a few NBA bets and after crunching the numbers, I think there are still a few spots we can attack!
Today is yet another adventure in the world of COVID protocols and injuries so just be warned! Remember to continue to keep checking spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) especially if players are ruled in or out. Several of these spreads have already moved a lot since I started my research this morning!
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 31st, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 64-70
- Against the Spread 36-25
- Over/Under 19-22
- Other/Props 4-4
- Teasers/Parlays 5-20
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Phoenix Suns (-4) @ Boston Celtics (215 total)
This is the early afternoon game so I hope you are catching this article in time! Both teams have some key players missing due to injuries and health/safety protocols, but Phoenix has the depth to be in a better position to handle it. As long as Chris Paul and Devin Booker are out there, I have a lot of faith in the rest of the Suns' role players rallying around their stars.
The Suns have been one of the best teams in the league this year and the interchangeable parts aspect of their wing players (Cam Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder) has certainly helped them win a ton of games. They're solid defensively and JaVale McGee has shown the ability to fill in when starter Deandre Ayton is out.
The Celtics really miss Jayson Tatum when he's out and to an extent, Dennis Schroder, too, as he provides some much-needed ball-handling and scoring for a team that lacks it. This team just dropped their last two games to Minnesota and the Clippers - both of whom were missing the majority of their starters. I think Phoenix takes care of business in this one and four points aren't all that much to lay considering the margins by which the Suns have been winning this season.
The Pick: Suns -4 (-115 DK Sportsbook)
Miami Heat (-3.5) @ Houston Rockets (216 total)
This spread made me do a double-take and I suppose the reason that Miami is only favored by 3.5 points has a lot to do with how many of their players are out. There is really just one player that matters to me here and it's Jimmy Butler, who is currently questionable. Butler is easily the best player in this game and has shown the ability to put Miami on his back plenty of times. He happens to have the sixth-man of the year healthy to help him, too, in Tyler Herro. Houston will certainly compete in this one, but Miami is the better team, even if they are short-handed.
My gut says Butler plays as he knows his team badly needs him and fellow veteran guard Kyle Lowry is still out. As long as Butler is in, I am in on the Heat at this number. I will bet it now in the hopes he plays, but I will also caution everyone that it's no guarantee that he plays and if you want to be extra cautious you could wait on this one for some confirmation.
The Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook). You may want to wait for an update on Jimmy Butler and then pounce quickly.
Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (226.5 total)
I honestly was set to bet some overs on this game and the Memphis game, but the model is showing that these totals are a bit inflated already and I think they will only go up. Instead, I'm going to do what I have done for much of the season - bet against the Lakers!
This worked out poorly on Tuesday as they ended up covering against Houston, but they came right back to Earth on Wednesday when they lost to Memphis. The Lakers are a one-man show right now as LeBron James has been playing at a whole different level, but they still have been terrible against the spread this season and their defense continues to be a huge issue. The Blazers are short-handed here and are really missing Jusuf Nurkic's presence inside. But this is a prime spot for Damian Lillard to take over and go nuts (like we saw Morant do on Wednesday). Lillard and Norman Powell might be able to carry this offense and the improved play of Nassir Little and Larry Nance Jr. as undersized big men might be enough to contain the Lakers on the other end.
I'm taking the Blazers with the points, even though I acknowledge they've been poor as underdogs and on the road ATS this season.
The Pick: Blazers +5.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NO TEASER OR PARLAY PICKS TODAY! Feel free to build your own using my model (and your best instincts!)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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