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Josh Wiesel's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/29/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We start off the New Year's weekend with a 10-game Friday night slate in the NBA. As we head towards the new year, the strategy for me is to stay the same. I generally like to pick two to three games in a given slate and give a single pick on each game.
I went 2-1 on Wednesday night on my picks. The Raptors were able to pull away late in the second quarter to cover the 3.5 first-half spread. Phoenix came ready to play in Houston and used a huge second quarter to build a 73-55 lead they never relinquished. Milwaukee did not cover the 1.5 first quarter spread and missed a wide open three that would've covered. My Sixers-Knicks teaser also just lost out, with the Knicks losing by nine. Overall, I was pretty happy with the night and going 2-1 on the single-game picks. Let's continue it tonight.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 29. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13!
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
New York Knicks (+1.5) @ Orlando Magic (226.5 total)
Both of these teams come into this game off of losses. Orlando lost at home to the Sixers without Joel Embiid. The Knicks couldn't contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams and lost on the road to the Thunder.
This is an important conference matchup, and I like New York to bring it early in the first quarter. Against OKC on Wednesday, the Thunder shot 6/8 from three and outscored the Knicks 38-25. Orlando isn't dynamic like that from deep. The Magic shot 2/8 from three in the first quarter on Wednesday. That's been the norm for a Magic team that is only shooting 32.3 percent from three in the first quarter in their last 10 games.
Philly won the first quarter 26-25 despite Tyrese Maxey picking up two quick fouls and only playing four minutes.
In their last 10 games, Orlando has averaged 27.4 points in the first quarter. The Knicks are averaging 31.7 points and shooting 50.0 percent on field goals.
According to EV Analytics, the Magic are only 4-6 ATS in the first quarter of their last 10 games. New York enters 6-3-1 using that same 10-game sample. Oklahoma City got really hot Wednesday night; I don't see that repeating with Orlando.
Both of these teams are similar in their first quarter defense stats in their last 10 games. I'll side with the better offense.
The pick: Knicks First Quarter +0.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Memphis Grizzlies (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers ( 225.5 total)
The Memphis Grizzlies have been revived with the return of superstar Ja Morant. Memphis is on a four-game win streak and suddenly has their eye back on making the playoffs this season.
It took some time for the Clippers to gel with James Harden, but they have figured it out. Los Angeles comes into this game off of a 113-104 victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. What was notable was that Kawhi Leonard sat out. The Clippers' star has missed the last three games, but I would be surprised if he doesn't play tonight.
In December at home, the Clippers are in the top 12 in points per game and three-point percentage. They are a top-six team in field goal percentage.
Kawhi Leonard is averaging 29.3 points on 61.3 percent field goal shooting and 50.0 percent from three this month. James Harden is playing well, scoring 20.3 points and dishing out 9.3 assists. The third member of their big three, Paul George, is averaging 21.9 points on 46.2 percent from deep in 10 December games.
The Clippers rank in the top 13 in points allowed this month. They are allowing 115.5, which is lower than the 118.0 Memphis has averaged over their four-game win streak. Memphis has been impressive on defense, but the Clippers are third in offensive rating at home in December.
Ja Morant missed last night's game against Denver, and Memphis got blown out. Even if he plays tonight, this is a tough spot for the Grizzlies on the second night of a back-to-back.
The spread is a little higher than I was anticipating, but I’ll still stick my gut.
The Pick: Clippers -6.5 (-115 BetMGM)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Sacramento Kings (+1) @ Atlanta Hawks (251 total)
This is a rare one for me, but I like the first half over here.
Instead of waiting a full game, let's try to get this done in only two quarters of work.
Atlanta is a top-five first-half scoring team. The Hawks place in the top five among home teams, hitting 50.4 percent of their field goals. From three, Atlanta is in the top 10 in makes and percentage. They are scoring 62.2 points in the first half of home games this season.
Sacramento has been formidable first-half scorers themselves. The Kings are a top-10 first-half team, scoring 58.8 points. Mike Brown's squad isn't shy about letting it fly either. They are averaging 21.8 three-point attempts, which is second only to the Boston Celtics. There's good and bad that comes with that. The good is they are knocking down a little over eight of those attempts. The bad is they shoot a decent, but not great 37.0 percent. Sacramento averages a lower 19.3 three-point attempts in the second half. This shows me they try to set a tone for shooting early on and average over 11 three-point attempts in the first quarter.
The good news for both of these offenses is that they go up against vulnerable defenses.
They are both in the bottom five when it comes to first-half points allowed. Both defenses can also find themselves in the bottom 10 when it comes to closest defender stats. Teams are shooting 54.0 percent against the Kings and 53.4 percent against the Hawks when either team has a defender within 2-4 feet. Their opponents are taking contested shots and making them. This is good news for Sacramento, as they are in the top 10, making 55.7 percent of their shots when guarded from 2-4 feet. Atlanta falls in the bottom five, but it's a favorable matchup.
I also just wanted to point out that the Hawks are 103/114 (90.4%) from the foul line in the first half at home.
I'm not an over/under guy, but I will try to capitalize every once in a while if I find one I really like.
The Pick: First Half Over 126.5 points (-115 PointsBet)
Favorite Teaser: OKC +8 - TOR +13 (+110 FD)
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