Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/28/22)

December 28, 2022

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/28/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Welcome back to my daily NBA betting picks! I apologize for a bit of an extended absence there, but the big Christmas holiday left me worn out on Monday and I simply needed a day off. I was able to push out some Xmas days picks and my full daily dose yesterday to my substack friends, but I wasn't able to get a full article up here at RotoBaller on Monday. Today is an oddly small eight-game Wednesday slate, but I don't mind it because we had a 10-gamer last night and we have a solid six-game slate tomorrow as a result and I fully embrace a more balanced NBA schedule every week!

I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 28. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight.

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Overall Record: 78-79
• Against the Spread: 38-35
• Game/Team Totals: 11-20
• Moneyline Parlay: 10-16
• Teasers: 18-7

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Orlando Magic (-1) @ Detroit Pistons (229 total)

So this seemed like a no-brainer pick at first, so of course, it feels like a trap. But I dug into this one from a few different angles and still came back to my original thoughts. The Magic should win this game!

Orlando lost last night to the Lakers at home as they couldn't stop the King, LeBron James. However, they are still 8-2 over their last 10 games and are slowly working back Wendell Carter Jr. (arguably one of the best 2-3 players) into the rotation. They simply didn't play well last night and I am willing to give them a bit of a pass based on the larger recent sample size of them being pretty respectable.

Meanwhile, Detroit has been scrappy, but they've dropped nine of their last 10 games and while they are hanging with teams, they are finding ways to lose at the end of games. Their -9.5 net rating over their last 10 games is the worst in the league and without Cade Cunningham, they simply have to get really efficient outings from Ivey, Hayes, and Bogdanovic in order to keep up with opponents and they certainly aren't stopping anyone as they're allowing a league-high 123 points to opponents over that stretch.

Orlando is actually 4-1 ATS this year on back-to-backs and they play enough guys in their rotation that no one should be overly tired tonight. While they're only 1-3 as favorites, I still like them here to win and view them as a better overall team than Detroit. We are getting them as pick 'em when they really deserve to be 3-4 point favorites.

The Pick: ORL -1 (-110)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (238 total)

The Nets are absolutely on fire right now and I don't think that you can argue against them being the hottest team in the league. They're 9-1 over their last 10 games with back-to-back impressive wins over the Bucks and Cavs in the last week, two of the top five teams in their conference (and arguably in the entire NBA).

Now, the Nets get the Hawks coming off a disappointing loss to the Pacers last night and Atlanta could be without Trae Young, too? Yeah, I've seen everything I need to see here. I am grabbing the Nets -5.5 right now, and this feels like a line that could move quite a bit during the day, so I want to get on it now.

I know some people like to bet against hot teams and trends, but Brooklyn is simply playing an elite level of basketball right now. The best-case scenario for Atlanta is that Trae does play and they get an off night from Kyrie or KD (or they might need both, honestly), but the rest of the Nets are playing really well right now and this isn't the Brooklyn team of last year where they simply didn't have anyone else to help the Super-Twins (I mean, Bruce Brown was their third-best player, c'mon).

The Pick: BKN -5.5 (-110)

Denver Nuggets (-2.5) @ Sacramento Kings (235 total)

This is a really weird back-to-back as these teams literally just played last night, with Denver needing a big second half to pull away from Sacto and secure a 113-106 win. I was on the Nuggets yesterday as I speculated that Domantas Sabonis would miss that game with his broken finger and I was sweating it out early before MPJ and Jamal Murray finally started making shots in the second half.

Denver didn't have Aaron Gordon and might not have him tonight either, but the Kings without their All-Star center Sabonis just didn't have enough in the tank to finish that game off. Now, I am not a medical expert, but does a broken finger usually heal in one day? I know Sabo is a warrior and probably wants to get back out there. I have read that he can play through this injury if the pain isn't too severe, but I am pretty skeptical that we see him return today. I am locking in the Nuggets at a very slim spread now, with the expectation that it grows by game time and jumps if Sabo is announced out (as it did yesterday).

The Pick: DEN -2.5 (-110)

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NBA Betting Picks: Game and Team Totals

Utah Jazz (-3) @ Golden State Warriors (232.5 total)

Hey, we have a total, would you look at that? Totals have been my nemesis this season, so I have been recommending them much more sparingly so far. I like this one a lot though as we have a few different factors pointing me toward an over tonight.

The Warriors are on the second half of a back-to-back after winning against Charlotte last night and while they are likely to sit Klay Thompson, they have guys like Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody who can all step in a score to help Jordan Poole.

We have an elite pace projection of 103.6 possessions, which means these teams should get up and down quite a bit and have more opportunities to score the basketball.

We also have a solid history here in this series as the teams have split the first two games this year, but both games have gone over this total (exactly 247 points both times!).

I have this game projected a full five points ahead of its current total, so jump on it now as I think it's going to go up quite a bit during the day.

The Pick: OVER 232.5 (-110)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

No Teasers or Parlays tonight! This is a rare slate with a bunch of tight spreads and I couldn't find three legs for either a parlay or a teaser. I'm just going to rock with my straight bets and props tonight!

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

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