RADIO
Merry Christmas, RotoBallers! I hope you have some time to enjoy the holiday season with family and friends and perhaps a chance to watch some NBA basketball in between meals and gatherings. The NBA has a long tradition of playing on Christmas Day and they line up five games in a row so we have NBA action from noon all the way until the late hours of Christmas night.
Thursday was a mixed bag of results with two hits and two misses. I'm going to attempt to make a pick for each of the five games today and will try to update this article as close to game times as possible. Hopefully, we get some of these star players back into their teams' lineups, but it's looking like a number of guys will definitely not be playing on Christmas day due to injuries and COVID protocols. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, December 25th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 55-61
- Against the Spread 33-21
- Over/Under 19-21
- Teasers/Parlays 5-19
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks
Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) @ New York Knicks (210 total)
Our first game of the day is a rematch of a playoff series from last season. Except this game won't feature Trae Young, Clint Capela, and a handful of other Hawks regulars who were key pieces from the team that beat New York and upset Philadelphia in the second round.
The Knicks have some guys out, too, most notably Derrick Rose who has been their best scoring option off the bench this season. I was on the Knicks on Thursday and they predictably blew a lead in the second half and were unable to close out the Wizards. Kemba Walker had a massive game, but New York didn't get much offense from anyone else and the Knicks just simply haven't been that good this season and aren't living up to preseason expectations.
Atlanta is coming off an impressive win against Philly despite not being short-handed and losing both Delon Wright and Cam Reddish to injuries in the fourth quarter. Both those guards are probable today, which is important for Atlanta's chances to compete here.
Call me crazy, but just have no faith in the Knicks being able to cover this big of a spread, even against an Atlanta team that has only John Collins as their only healthy starter. This game should be ugly and I think the Hawks find a way to compete and make it interesting all the way to the end.
The Pick: Hawks +6.5 (-105 Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics (+7) @ Milwaukee Bucks (221 total)
So far we know that the Bucks will return Bobby Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo from COVID protocols, but what we don't know for sure yet is if Giannis will suit up for this game. I think it's very likely that he does given the context here (Christmas Day = national TV audience) but we've also seen players take a few days to get reconditioned once they clear protocols before returning to action.
Even if Giannis plays, I think the Celtics can compete here. These two teams have split the season series 1-1 so far with Boston winning the most recent matchup in a game that Giannis did play. Jaylen Brown has finally started playing better recently and Jayson Tatum has been balling out all season long. The Bucks are definitely the better team here when fully healthy, but I'm not sure they're seven points better and I know they'll get Boston's best effort. I am going to have to side with the underdogs again here and take the Celtics on the road with the points.
The Pick: Celtics +7 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors (+6) @ Phoenix Suns (215.5 total)
This is the biggest matchup of the day and the two best teams in the NBA square off for the third time this season. They've both taken one game each in the season series with the Warriors having won the most recent matchup. But Phoenix was without Devin Booker in that game and should have their entire team healthy for this one while the Warriors are missing their second and third-leading scorers with Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole out.
I like the Suns to win, but I don't want to lay six points against the Warriors, they're too good. Instead, I'm looking to go under this total which has already fallen a few points since it opened. Both these teams play excellent team defense and we've seen both of the first two games go under this total (214 and 200). The trends back an under here as both teams have been hitting unders more often than overs, too.
The Suns did a beautiful job of frustrating Steph Curry into a terrible outing in their win, while the Warriors have some really solid defenders of their own in Draymond Green, Otto Porter, and Andre Iguodala. I've said it before, but in big games between two heavyweights I think both teams usually value each possession a little more and we are more likely to see these games throttle down in pace than speed up.
The Pick: UNDER 215.5 (good down to 214) -110 DK Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (226 total)
This looked like a good game to feature on Christmas day to the TV executives back in the summer, but the reality is that the Lakers have been abysmal this season and the Nets have been a mess lately with the vast majority of their roster being unavailable due to a COVID outbreak. Brooklyn hasn't played all week and has been signing a bunch of guys to 10-day contracts just so they can have enough healthy bodies.
The Nets are getting one very important player back today - James Harden. Harden will be the only star in the lineup for the Nets, however, as Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kyrie Irving are all still out (though Irving should be returning for road games soon).
I picked against the Lakers successfully on Thursday and I might just have to do it again. I suppose they are favored because they have more healthy regulars than Brooklyn, but does anyone really think this team is one to be feared by opponents? LeBron has been doing his thing, but the rest of these guys (Westbrook included) have been pathetic on defense and no one other than LeBron or Westy can really get their shot on offense either.
This feels like a toss up and as much as I have not been a Harden fan over the years, he does have the ability to put teams on his back and make teammates better as a passer. Hopefully, he's in shape and hasn't been eating too much while he's been out because I am banking on him and the Nets to scratch out a win here. Give me another road underdog here and I have a secondary bet as well on the Lakers to go under their 113.5 team total (which they have gone under in six straight games).
The Pick: Nets ML (-+105 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: Lakers team total UNDER 214.5 (-120 DK Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks (+12.5) @ Utah Jazz (214 total)
This spread is massive and there's really no way I am touching it. The Jazz could definitely cover and I think they are likely to win this game 99/100 times as they've been one of the best teams in the league again this season and one of the most consistent on a nightly basis. But you simply never know what can happen late in games, even when backups come into blowouts we've seen teams backdoor cover and I think they are better options than trying to mess with such a big spread.
The total is right about where it should be so I am skipping that, too. I'm going back to a FanDuel bet that I used with Utah last week in a game that had a similar spread against Charlotte. On FD you can bet "wire to wire" if you think a team will lead at the end of each quarter and regulation and that's exactly what I'm doing here. Utah does a great job of jumping out to leads against inferior teams and keeping them at arm's length the rest of the way. Without their three best players (if Porzingis misses again), I don't give the Mavs much of a chance at keeping this thing close or going on a big enough run to take the lead at any point if they go down.
Oh, and Rudy Gobert has been on fire and centers absolutely smash the Mavericks so let's toss in a player prop, too, why not?
The Pick: Utah to lead wire to wire (-140 FD Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: Rudy Gobert over 32.5 points/rebounds (-112 FD Sportsbook)
No teasers or parlays today! I considered teasing some underdogs since we have some very worthy ones on this slate, but I've already given out seven picks so you are on your own for building some combos you like!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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