RADIO
Yesterday we saw the quality of NBA basketball take a pretty big dip as teams have had to sign players who have been out of the league for several years and actually play these guys in games. Scoring was down yesterday and there was some sloppy play, but we still managed to hit the under in the Denver game despite the Cavs not quite having enough to hang with the Celtics. We did hit a parlay! Though the Chicago game was canceled so it didn't net all that great of a return, oh well!
This is a special Thursday edition of NBA Best Bets since we have 11 games (one game already canceled) tonight and no games tomorrow on Christmas Eve. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, December 23rd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 53-59
- Against the Spread 32-20
- Over/Under 18-20
- Teasers/Parlays 6-19
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Washington Wizards (-1) @ New York Knicks (210.5 total)
Believe it or not, this is the first time that these two teams will meet this season despite being division foes. The Wizards are road favorites, but I'm not entirely sure why. Neither team comes into this game in great form, though the Wizards did pick up a quality win against Utah in their last game before having their game against Brooklyn postponed earlier this week.
Both teams are dealing with some injuries and COVID situations, but the most notable name here is Derrick Rose, who was just ruled out for two months yesterday. The Knicks are hoping to get R.J. Barrett back and were forced to put Kemba Walker back into the starting lineup the last few games and he has responded by playing pretty well.
I have the Knicks favored here, but not by much. There's not a ton of data or trends to support this pick, I just think the Knicks find a way to get it done at home tonight. Despite their mediocre start, this team does battle on a nightly basis and we've recently seen the Wizards come back to Earth after their hot start in October and November. Kemba and Randle lead the way at MSG tonight and the Knicks gut out an ugly win here. Give me the home underdogs at better odds in games that are basically coin flips.
Knicks ML (-105 DK Sportsbook)
San Antonio Spurs (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (224 total)
I'm nervous to take the Spurs to win two games in a row as their season game log looks like a roller coaster. However, I can't resist the urge to bet AGAINST the disaster that is the L.A. Lakers right now, and the trends really strongly support the Spurs here.
San Antonio impressively dismantled the Clippers on Monday and now looks to sweep the other L.A. team tonight. They're an impressive 9-6 ATS on the road this season while the Lakers are a woeful 6-12 ATS at home. San Antonio's record doesn't show it, but I consider them an above-average team and the Lakers are really struggling this season and are without Anthony Davis for a while. There is simply no consistency for the Lakers and LeBron hasn't been able to put the team on his back like he did with Miami or Cleveland in the past. They've brought in Isiah Thomas to help with their bench unit, but that has only weakened their defense even further.
The Spurs have a really solid young nucleus of players and a deep bench. I think they take care of business here and I like getting them at plus odds on their money line as dogs.
The Pick: Spurs ML (+105 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks (-5) @ Dallas Mavericks (215.5 total)
I love betting the under on Dallas, especially when they are without their best offensive player, Luka Doncic. Besides Luka, they're also going to be down their best spot-up shooter (Tim Hardaway Jr.) and their best scoring guard off the bench (Trey Burke), while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. On the season, Dallas is hitting the under at a 64% rate and their offensive struggles without Luka are well-documented.
The Bucks poured it on Houston in the second half last night but had to play their core guys a bunch of minutes since they are shorthanded as well. Milwaukee has been pretty inefficient on offense in games without rest, going under their total in five out of six games. I think the combination of some tired Bucks legs and a makeshift Dallas team that lacks scoring punch sets us up nicely for this game to under.
The Pick: UNDER 215.5 (good down to 213.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
Charlotte Hornets (+2.5) @ Denver Nuggets (228 total)
So here's a situation where we have one team we love on overs (Charlotte) facing a team we like betting unders on (Denver). I got away with the Denver under last night, but I'm flipping to the over tonight for a few reasons. The matchup is perfect here for Denver to bounce back after they dropped a disappointing game to Thunder last night. The Hornets play fast and loose and are likely to pace up this Denver squad. We've been on them for overs this season because of efficient they are on offense, how fast they play, and how bad they are on defense (especially on the interior - hello, Jokic!)
Denver did play last night, but the starters were benched midway through the third quarter so they should be fresh tonight. They're also 4-1 on overs without rest days, so that trend lines up nicely. We know how good Charlotte has been at hitting their overs this year (20-12-1) and they should get Gordon Hayward back for this one and have a fully healthy starting five for the first time in a while.
The Pick: OVER 228 (good up to 230) -110 DK Sportsbook
No Teaser or Parlay picks tonight! Use the chart up above to build some if you'd like!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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