RADIO
Things are getting wonky in both the NFL and NBA thanks to COVID cases being on the rise and new variants infecting the nation. It's been incredibly tough to cover these leagues and keep track of who is or isn't playing on a daily basis, but we're doing our best! While there are two NFL games to watch tonight, we also have at least five (maybe six if the Boston game plays) NBA games as well.
There is still a chance the Boston-Philly game gets postponed, so I am probably going to skip that one as far as making a pick. I'm riding high after going 5-2 on Friday and I think I'll make a pick for the other fie games tonight - why not? Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, December 20th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 49-55
- Against the Spread 31-19
- Over/Under 18-19
- Teasers/Parlays 5-19
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Charlotte Hornets (+11.5) @ Utah Jazz (236 total)
We have some really tough games to pick from today and some massive spreads in some of these games. I really hate trying to take a favorite to cover double-digits but at the same time, I don't really like or trust any of these big underdogs to cover either. This total is massive at 236 and I'm not touching it because I don't take under in Charlotte games, yet it's too high to feel good about going over either.
So here's where we get a little creative. I think the Jazz should dominate this game and lead throughout. The Hornets are coming off a thirty-point loss to Phoenix last night and playing without any rest days. They're 1-5 ATS without any rest and go right from one top-tier to another in Utah on a ridiculously hard road trip. Last night they fell behind 37-15 in the first quarter and the Suns kept them at an arm's length the entire game.
Utah has outscored their opponents 28.8-26.5 in the first quarter this season and 27.5-26.1 in the second quarter. I think there's a great chance they get out to a big lead early and maintain that lead throughout. In order to win this bet, they don't have to win every quarter, just be leading the game at the end of each quarter.
The Pick: Jazz to lead wire to wire (-128 FD Sportsbook)
LA Clippers (-5) @ San Antonio Spurs (217 total)
We are going to be playing all kinds of angles today, as the usual data points are all gummed up due to injuries and we don't have as much solid data to go off as usual. My gut says the Spurs cover here and I based that on the fact that every time you think they should win, they lose and vice versa. This month has been a roller coaster for San Antonio and I don't think anyone (including them) really knows how good they are. They beat the Warriors earlier this month and stayed within four points of the Suns in a close loss. They also beat the Jazz just last week. But they've also lost badly to Charlotte, Denver, and the Knicks, and last night they even lost to an undermanned Kings team by seven.
The good news for the Spurs here is that the Clippers are on a two-game skid of their own and could be without their star player, Paul George. If we get a fully-healthy Spurs team against a George-less Clippers squad, I give the advantage to San Antonio, even on a back-to-back.
If we are looking for trends to back up the Spurs, they are 10-7 in games after a loss (which makes sense if you look at their results and see W-L-W-L-W-L just over their last six games). Meanwhile, the Clippers are only 5-8 coming off a loss. We don't even need them to win (though that ML is tempting at decent odds), we just need them to be in the game down to the final few possessions.
The Pick: Spurs +5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Houston Rockets (+7) @ Chicago Bulls (223 total)
This is a game where I would normally be on the Bulls to cover, but I simply don't have that much confidence in them tonight considering they are without Zach LaVine and a number of other role players due to COVID protocols. They're also playing their second game in as many nights and coming off a hard-fought five-point win over the Lakers last night. While Houston is also banged up, they've been somewhat competitive on most nights over the last several weeks and they could definitely hang in there tonight.
I still expect Chicago to win, likely behind another big outing from DeMar DeRozan. But the betting angle here is the under. I have this game pegged around 219 and I think both teams could end up playing considerably slower than usual due to their injury situation and tightened rotations. The Bulls are 2-2 on under this season with no rest, but they're -14 overall in +/- margin which means those games that went under went WAY under. Houston isn't very good on offense and I think the Bulls can clamp down on them and grind out a win here while staying under the total.
The Pick: UNDER 223 (good down to 221.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
Oklahoma City Thunder (+9) @ Memphis Grizzlies (212.5 total)
Let's take a little trip down Memory Lane, shall we? On December 2nd, the Grizzlies beat the Thunder 152-79 in one of the most lopsided games in NBA history. The Thunder were without their two best players that night (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey) and were embarrassed by Memphis who went on to go 7-2 in their next nine games.
We won't get a repeat of that tonight and I think OKC can be competitive here as they have been playing considerably better of late, even upsetting the Clippers the other night. I wanted to take this game total under, but the total dropped to where there's not very much value left, so we are going try something a little different.
I'm looking at the OKC team total of 101.5 and I think the Grizzlies can hold them under it. In the month of December, Memphis has held teams like Dallas, Miami, Philadelphia, and the Lakers all under 100 points (in addition to that 79 point outing that OKC had in the first meeting). Memphis is playing some of the best defense in the league right now and despite losing to Portland last night, they held them to only 105 points. That's significant as Portland is a good offensive team.
OKC has scored over 100 in their last two games against sub-par defenses (Clippers and Pelicans) but has been held to 84 points (by Dallas) and 95 points (by the Lakers) in the last few weeks. If you can't crack 100 points against the garbage defense that the Lakers play, how do you expect to do it against Memphis! OKC is one of the most offensively-challenged teams in the league, so I like Memphis to win and to hold them under their team total. If you want to bet the game total, go for it, but you never know when the Grizzlies could have an offensive explosion of their own and take this total over.
The Pick: OKC team total under 101.5 (-115 DK Sportsbook)
Sacramento Kings (+13) @ Golden State Warriors (221.5 total)
The Warriors should roll here tonight against a Kings team that is missing a bunch of their starters and usual rotation players. Yes, the Kings did pull off the upset of the Spurs last night, but they're now going into Oakland tonight tired and having to face an elite offensive and defensive club and will be outclassed at every position.
I'm still not laying 13 points though, I just won't do it. Instead, I think one way we can bet on this game would be to bet on the offensive output of the Warriors. They're without Jordan Poole tonight, but Steph Curry and the rest of the gang should be able to get buckets at will against a poor defensive team. Guys like Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Tyrese Haliburton all played close to 40 minutes last night and the Kings simply don't have the depth to not push their few remaining core players big minutes.
If the game does become a blowout, then Golden State's talented bench unit should feast on the Sacto reserves as well. The Warriors' team total is sitting at 117.5 and I think they eclipse that with ease tonight. This undermanned Sacto team has allowed 114 and 124 points in their last two games (124 points was to Memphis, too, a team that has not been very high-scoring without Ja Morant). There is a little juice on this total, so I may wait to grab it another half-point or point higher if it moves up.
The Pick: Warriors team total OVER 117.5 (-120 DK Sportsbook)
No Teaser or Parlay picks tonight!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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