RADIO
Wednesday night was a success with my main plays going 3-1 and our parlay just missing as the Nuggets just didn't show up in their game. I hope you're enjoying these articles and I'll be totally honest with you here - I've profited more this NBA season on betting picks and props than I have with my DFS lineups. The COVID situation is getting even worse and we have to navigate a ton of injuries on a nightly basis. However, barring any crazy changes between now and game time I think I have some pretty solid angles on some games tonight.
We have an 8-game slate tonight in the NBA and I'm tempted to toss out 4-5 picks. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 17th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 49-55
- Against the Spread 27-18
- Over/Under 17-19
- Teasers/Parlays 5-18
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (-3.5) @ Boston Celtics (214.5 total)
Here we go again as the Warriors are very small road favorites but the model is going to project them to win handily. While they dropped a tough game to Philly and didn't cover against the Pacers, they did cover against the Knicks last time out. The Celtics will be a major test for this Golden State team and they could be rounding into form at just the right time. They're fresh off a double-digit win against the Bucks and got Jaylen Brown back into their lineup.
Are the Celtics back or did Jayson Tatum just put them on his back again (he scored 42 points in that win)? The issue for Tatum tonight is that he's likely going to get a healthy dose of Draymond Green. In the eight games in which Draymond and Tatum have played against each other, Tatum has averaged 21-6-1 which is not bad, but nowhere close to his averages this season. I think Golden State is a better defensive team with a deeper bench, which makes me lean their way. I can't help but go back to them here in this spot as the model and the trends both back this pick, too.
The Pick: Warriors -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Miami Heat (-5) @ Orlando Magic (208 total)
We are rolling with another road favorite here and perhaps an unlikely one when you think about it. Without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin the Heat still managed to pull off an upset of the Sixers on Wednesday. They've also beaten the Bucks and Bulls recently despite being undermanned with their only losses coming to Memphis and Cleveland (two of the hottest teams in the NBA).
Herro could return tonight (he's currently questionable) to face the lowly Magic who have dropped six straight. The news gets even worse for Orlando as they could be without their lead guard Cole Anthony and starting center Mo Bamba. I'll go with the better overall team here in Miami and the one that is in better current form. Even if Orlando has their full complement of starters it will be an uphill battle to compete with this tough Miami squad. Give me the Heat as I think they take care of business here behind the strong play of their reserves and veteran Kyle Lowry.
The Pick: Heat -5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Lakers (+1) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (223.5 total)
The Lakers find themselves underdogs on the road tonight in Minnesota, but not by much. My model (and my gut) both agree that the T-Wolves should be favored by more than just a single point. Let's consider that Minnesota has been the better team so far this season and has their full complement of players while the Lakers are going to be without Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Avery Bradley due to COVID.
Yes, the Lakers did sign Isaiah Thomas and he should help out a bit, but they're still in for a tall task as the Wolves have been one of the surprise teams in the league and vastly improved. The Wolves beat the Lakers handily earlier this year (though LeBron didn't play in that one) and they should have the upper hand here tonight. This isn't the Timberwolves of old anymore, it's not just KAT and some role players. Minnesota has a balanced offensive attack with KAT, D'Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards. Patrick Beverley is playing well and a pest on defense. Jarred Vanderbilt has emerged as a legit option at PF and their bench has been improved as well.
I'll take the healthier and more well-rounded team here at home. If LeBron and AD both have huge games and pull off a win, I won't be shocked, but the Lakers have been one of the worst teams ATS this season (only 11-18) and I think that trend continues.
The Pick: Wolves -1 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Memphis Grizzlies (-5) @ Sacramento Kings (225.5 total)
I can't help myself today, I am all over some of these road favorites. We have yet another situation where two teams are trending in drastically different directions. The Grizzlies are winners of nine of their last ten games and playing some incredible basketball right now. They've rallied around their coach and are playing some of the best team basketball in the league as well as being the most improved defense in the NBA over the last few weeks.
Meanwhile, the Kings are running out of healthy bodies as Richaun Holmes and De'Aaron Fox are listed as doubtful, Tyrese Haliburton and Chimezie Metu are questionable, and Marvin Bagley III and Terance Davis are both out due to COVID protocols. We could see a really watered-down Kings lineup tonight and this thing could get ugly fast. I know five points is a lot to lay on the road, but we are doing it again here with Memphis as I think they take care of the wounded Kings in short order. The Grizzlies continue to be impressive ATS this season with an 18-11 mark.
The Pick: Grizzlies -5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (+1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (228 total)
Another day and there's another Hornets game I like to go over! If it's not broken, don't fix it, right? Charlotte continues to make us money on these overs and they are now up to 18-11-1 on overs this season. The matchup today against Portland should keep that trend going as the Blazers are a team that isn't likely to slow them down.
Portland has dropped seven games in a row this month and they've allowed 110 or more points in five of those seven. They miss CJ McCollum pretty badly right now and Damian Lillard has been forced to carry the offensive load more than ever. There are some individual matchups in this game that I love for DFS as Charlotte can't really stop big men (or any position, really) and the Blazers have been torched by wing players. I have it going for 230 points so it's not a no-brainer like some of these other Charlotte games have been, but I do think that it ends up being a relatively fast-paced, high-scoring affair that comes down to the final minutes.
With the Hornets looking like they could get LaMelo Ball back tonight, I lean their way to win, too, and I'll happily take them as road dogs here considering they've been excellent ATS this season, too (18-12).
The Pick: OVER 228 (good up to 230.5) -108 FD Sportsbook
Bonus Pick: Charlotte Money line (+102 FD Sportsbook)
The Pick: GSW-MEM-UTA-MIA money line parlay! (+308 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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