RADIO
Wednesday night's results were mixed but with more good than bad. Charlotte did their part by covering and the total just barely hit the over in that game, too. The Raptors totally disappeared in the second half and lost by one, failing to cover and I'm not likely to trust them again after that mess. The real bad break was in the Denver game, where Denver failed to close out the Pelicans in regulation and therefore the total went over instead of under. That one hurt because it lost us the teaser, too.
We press onward as we have nine more games on the NBA docket tonight. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, December 10th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 43-50
- Against the Spread 23-16
- Over/Under 15-16
- Teasers/Parlays 5-18
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+1) @ Minnesota (212.5 total)
I will keep my analysis short here. The Cavs are playing some great basketball right now and have come through this gaunlet in their schedule rather impressively with a win against Chicago last time out and close losses to Utah and Milwaukee. The T-Wolves, like the Cavs, are one of the most improved teams in the league, too, and having a solid season of their own. But there are too many question marks for Minnesota here as D'Angelo Russell is questionable for this contest tonight. Without Russell, the Wolves have dropped two straight to Atlanta and Utah and they were dismantled by the Jazz in a 32-point loss on Wednesday.
The Cavs been awesome ATS all season and I'm going to take the value on them here in a game that should come down to the wire. Cleveland is battled-tested and I think they pull this one out - even if D-Lo does suit up. At plus odds, I'll take the better team that's in better form in this game - give me my Cavs!
The Pick: CAVS ML (+100 DK Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics (+5.5) @ Phoenix Suns (216.5 total)
The Celtics are finishing a brutal road trip in which they're 1-3 so far with their only win came against a wounded Portland team. They're going to be without Jaylen Brown again tonight and there's only so much Jayson Tatum can do to keep this team in games on a nightly basis.
Tatum has been fantastic, but he's not getting much help as the Celtics are leaning too hard on veteran Al Horford and guards Dennis Schroder and Marcus Smart. These guys are great role players, but the Celtics badly need Brown as their other main scoring option and the Boston bench has been pretty terrible.
The Suns are still without Devin Booker but are a deep team that plays team basketball and can defend every position on the floor. Their win streak was snapped by the Warriors last week, but they already bounced back with a win against the Spurs on Monday and are poised to start another streak. They've had three days off and should be rested and ready to defend their home court. I truly believe they are one of the best teams in the league and they have some solid wing defenders like Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges that they can put on Tatum tonight.
Phoenix has won games in which they are favored by an average margin of 9.4 points. They've also won by a margin of 7.6 points at home. I like them to cover this spread at home tonight against a road-weary Celtics squad.
The Pick: Suns -5.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Sacramento Kings (-1) @ Charlotte Hornets (230 total)
I was too slow getting this article up today and we missed out on a few points of value as this game opened up around 228 on most books. Believe it or not there is still room to bet this over as I have it projected over 232 and I've seen a few other sources I trust with projections in the 230s as well.
It's the perfect recipe for a ton of points tonight as the pace is up, the offenses are good and the defenses are bad. Charlotte has been without a large chunk of their rotation this week, but that hasn't stopped them from scoring in droves and Sacramento isn't likely to slow them down. The Kings did get Harrison Barnes back, but lost Richaun Holmes in the process and have absolutely no rim protection. Both teams are going to get a lot of good looks in the paint and I expect both offenses to thrive in this type of game environment. Both teams have had positive correlations with their opponents' scoring this year so if we expect this game to stay as close as Vegas does, then we should expect a high-scoring affair.
Stack this game up in DFS and bet the over, just know that there's not too much more wiggle room on this number and I'd probably stop at 232 if this number keeps going up all day.
The Pick: OVER 230 (good up to 232) -110 DK Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) @ Houston Rockets (226 total)
We successfully bet the under on Houston the other night even when that number went up during the day. This feels like a similar situation as this total has already increased a few points today. Listen, the Rockets little run here has been impressive and I'm not trying to take anything away from them. But they lucked out on Wednesday when Brooklyn rested Aldridge and Durant - and coach Steve Nash chose to go deep into his bench.
Houston is certainly an improved team, but without Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. I don't think they can keep their latest offensive improvement up for long. Especially here against a good Bucks defense that can defend. Jrue Holiday is going to attempt to slow down Eric Gordon and Christian Wood will have a tough task against Giannis on the interior. I think the Bucks end up winning pretty convincingly here and in the process, they slow down this game enough for us to hit the under.
The Pick: UNDER 226 (good down to 222) -110 DK Sportsbook
NO TEASER OR PARLAY PICKS TODAY!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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