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Man, what a brutal night last night. I officially went 1-3 and was only saved by the Golden State-Phoenix game going under. I was so pumped for that game and I thought for sure that the Warriors would pull it out, especially after Devin Booker left with a hamstring injury. But the Suns fought hard and played some incredible defense down the stretch. Taking out the teasers and parlays, we are still above .500 on the year and I have to trust the process and keep going with the picks that the data supports.
Here's the bad news. The numbers don't support all that much today and I am going to have to dig a little deeper than usual to find some edges. You'll notice that my model numbers line up with Vegas in a lot of spots today, so if anything, take it easy tonight and practice some responsible bankroll management (maybe hit some props instead?)
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, December 1st, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 30-40
- Against the Spread 15-11
- Over/Under 10-13
- Teasers/Parlays 4-16
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (214 total)
THIS IS A TOUGH CARD! I may have mentioned that already, but it took a lot of digging on my part to find a spread that I liked today as we have a lot of tight games and not all that many trends working in our favor.
I'm going to back the home faves here and I want to spend a minute talking about the Pelicans. While their season has been a disappointment so far, there is some reason for optimism with this squad as they've won three of their last four games and beaten some good teams (Utah, Washington, L.A. Clippers) in the process. They've faced one of the hardest schedules in the league so far and were without Brandon Ingram or Devonte Graham for a large chunk of their games. They look like they're starting to round into form and their biggest offseason acquisition, Jonas Valanciunas, is playing like an All-Star right now. He's fresh off a 39-point, 15-rebound performance against the Clippers and is on pace for a career-best 19-12-2.5 average this season.
The Pelicans have been better at home at 6-4 ATS and might be getting Dallas (who are only 5-5 ATS on the road) at the right time. The Mavs looked bad against Cleveland the other night and saw Kristaps Porzingis exit early with an ankle injury. If he misses tonight (currently he's questionable, but we know he's not been very durable in his career) then Luka Doncic isn't going to have much help again and the Mavs secondary players really struggle to score at times. In the five games without KP, their offensive rating drops all the way down to 102 - which is Houston-Orlando-OKC territory - as far as offensive production goes.
Give me the Pelicans with the points and I'll have them straight up, too. If KP is announced out, my guess is that the line will move another 1-2 points towards New Orleans, too. I'm grabbing the under here, also, as it rates out well in the model.
The Pick: Pelicans +2.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) and Pelicans ML (+120 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: UNDER 214.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Houston Rockets (+2.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (215 total)
Does this game look familiar? Well, it should as we saw these two teams battle it out on Monday with the Rockets having their way at home with the Thunder. Now they'll meet in OKC tonight and face off for the fourth time already this year. I'm going right back to the under here as Monday they combined for 201 points and went way under the total for an easy win. They combined for only 200 points in their second game, too. The first meeting way back in October did hit 215 exactly, but the trends are all siding with the under for these two offensively challenged squads. No need to overanalyze this one, I expect more ugly basketball again tonight.
The Pick: UNDER 215 (good down to 213.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5) @ Washington Wizards (216.5 total)
This game should be a good one between two of the more surprising young teams in the league. At 13-8 and 11-10, the Wizards and T-Wolves, respectively, have surpassed their preseason expectations so far this year. Washington is slightly favored at home but I could see this game going either way to be honest. So instead of picking a side, let's go under the total instead. This under is the highest-rated in the model today as I have it projected for around 210-211 points.
Minnesota has won seven of their last eight and it's no secret as to why they've been one of the most improved teams in the league this season - it's their defense. Their defensive rating is a full 9.5 points better than last year which is second only to Golden State as far as overall improvement. Washington isn't far behind with a 5.7 point improvement in their defensive rating, too. Both of these teams are playing much more fundamental basketball and are no longer running and gunning as they were in previous seasons either as this game only projects for 98.6 possessions.
We are going under here and I feel pretty good about it. I'd bet it as low as 213.5 but I don't think it will fall that far either.
The Pick: UNDER 216.5 (good down to 213.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NO TEASERS OR PARLAYS TODAY! I quit! Just kidding, but honestly, this is one of the toughest betting cards we have had in a while. If I did anything, it would probably be to tease the three totals that I mentioned already together.
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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The OKC-HOU game I mentioned early has huge potential for defensive stats as the Rockets lead the league is steals allowed while the Thunder give up the most blocks!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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