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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/5/22)

jayson tatum nba dfs lineup picks daily fantasy basketball NBA injury news

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/5/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

It was very close to a big night, but the Spurs faded down the stretch as my underdog pick after leading for a large chunk of the game and the Suns lost as big favorites to a Portland team that was without Simons and Dame Lillard to ruin the money line parlay, ugh! The Pelicans team total also missed and I blame the Warriors for benching their starters (something I didn't see coming considering they had lost 4 in a row) as their backups actually played more defense and held New Orleans to 114 points.

I will also take a hard "L" on the Wizards last night as they were demolished by the one-man wrecking crew that was Kevin Durant. And it might be a while before I trust them again. All in all, it wasn't that bad of a night as some of my player props did well and my DFS lineups would have been pretty solid had I not bit on Jalen McDaniels chalk! It's not often I get to write up an NBA slate on Saturday, but we have 8 games today and I am going to miss some slates next weekend when I head on vacation so I thought "why not drop some NBA bets?" for our amazing RotoBaller readers today!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

  • 2022-2023 Overall Record: 25-24
  • Against the Spread: 11-10
  • Game/Team Totals: 4-7
  • Moneyline Parlay: 4-4
  • Teasers: 6-2

 

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

New Orleans Pelicans (+2) @ Atlanta Hawks (232 total)

The Pelicans looked rusty for much of last night's game with the Warriors backups, but that's really not going to deter me from taking them at plus money as underdogs today. Those games where you prepare for one lineup (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) and then get an entirely different lineup on the floor can be weird and I am willing to cut them some slack, especially since they eventually got it figured out and closed them out with a 9-point win.

The key thing here for New Orleans is that they are finally healthy. They are still experimenting with different personnel combos and I was bummed to see Jonas Valanciunas lose minutes to Larry Nance Jr., but at the same time, they have the depth to allow themselves to be able to go small and play that way if they need to. Trey Murphy III continues to outplay Herb Jones, but they offer very different skills to this team with Jones being a really solid wing defender and Murphy being a fantastic shooter off the bench.

I took some heat from a long-time follower on Twitter for putting Atlanta way down towards the middle of my power rankings yesterday based on the fact that they haven't beaten anyone yet (Detroit twice, Knicks, Orlando, Houston) but it's true and I am not so sure this team is a true contender in the East unless they can get their defense squared away.

I've said it before, Trae Young is amazing and I love the addition of Dejounte Murray, but this team still feels like they are missing something and I think it's the absence of Bogdan Bogdanovic as their sixth man. They're not getting anything from their bench at all this year and on nights when Trae or others aren't shooting well, this team can struggle to score. The Knicks led them by 20 points in the first half before doing "Knicks things" and letting them back into the game. I think they will find much tougher sledding tonight against a good Pelicans team.

My rule with Atlanta is to pick them against weaker opponents and pick against them when they face good competition and so far that method has proven to work. I'll take the underdogs here on the money line.

The Pick: Pelicans ML (+115 DK)

 

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Boston Celtics (-4) @ New York Knicks (223.5 total)

I like the Celtics to win this game, but the spread is in a weird spot right now where it's more than a one-possession kind of game and you just never know when the Knicks are going to show up and play really well (as they did last night in a tough win against Philly). I have Boston in my teaser tonight (teased down to a ML bet basically) but I am really interested in this total. 223.5 points in several points BELOW the league average game so far this year (around 226 points) and we get two teams who have been pretty good on offense this year and just "okay" on the defensive side of the things.

In fact, despite having a neutral projected pace tonight of around 100 possessions, this game has the second-highest projected efficiency rating (behind the ATL-NO game). That Pelicans-Hawks game has almost an identical pace and efficiency projection but a Vegas total that is 10 points higher at 233! This game has 230-point potential, especially when you consider that both teams are playing their second game in two nights and that teams playing on no rest this year have gone over their totals 66% of the time.

Jayson Tatum and the Celtics' offense has been humming and the addition of Jalen Brunson to the Knicks' offense has really improved their efficiency on a nightly basis as well. I am banking on lot of buckets tonight and backing this total as high as 225.5.

The Pick: OVER 223.5 (-110 DK)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).

Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.

PLAYING IT SAFE(R) THAN USUAL ON THE ML PARLAY (and excluding the Suns because they burned us last night)

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:  Denver + Minnesota + Milwaukee = (+105 DraftKings)

4-point Teaser: Boston +0, Orlando +7, New Orleans +6  = (+170 DraftKings)

 

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members too!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
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Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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