RADIO
Wednesday was absolutely brutal and I took a goose-egg for only the second time this season. Nights like that are rough on a bettor, especially when the Pacers led the entire game before falling in overtime and the Wizards just totally didn't show up and got waxed by an inferior Pelicans team. But there's nowhere to go but up, and I'm back today in relentless pursuit of a clean sweep with more data-driven picks for these Friday night games.
I know I have mentioned this but Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but a general trend that I am seeing is that there are fewer obvious spots to bet each day, making my job all the harder. That's why I used modeled data and trends and try to find multiple angles for these picks daily.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 26th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 26-37
- Against the Spread 14-10
- Over/Under 8-12
- Teasers/Parlays 3-15
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I might have to stop betting on Knicks games going over as they failed to go over (but still won) despite scoring 63 first-half points.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (226 total)
This game should be a fun one and definitely one you'll want to target in DFS. I'm going to have to ignore one major trend here because the Hawks are only 2-8 on the road this season. However, they have won six straight games, including some real quality wins against the Bucks, Celtics, and Hornets in that stretch. Atlanta has been up and down this year as they had dropped six straight prior to their recent run.
Memphis is a team I have a hard time figuring out. They're clearly very talented and have a deep rotation, but they're still very young and have struggled to stop opposing teams on defense this year. They've lost two of their last three games, including a bad loss to Toronto on Wednesday night after they led much of the game.
Vegas has the Hawks as slight dogs here, and I simply think they are a better team right now than Memphis. Let's ride the hot hand of Trae Young and I think Memphis will struggle with the size of John Collins and Clint Capela up front.
The Pick: Hawks ML (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (-7.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (209.5 total)
This game has the strongest trends to support an under, but unfortunately, Vegas already has set the total a full four points lower than the average NBA game (which is around 213.5). Still, the models suggest that this one could be a low-scoring affair as it ranks below average in pace and both offenses have struggled at times this year.
The Thunder will be without their best offensive player today again as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out of the lineup. That's not good for OKC as Washington has been a stout team defensively this year. Meanwhile, the Wizards have been slumping on offense and have not scored more than 105 points in a game since November 5th (10 straight games). I like the Wizards to win, but to control the tempo of this game and hold the offensively-challenged Thunder in check.
The Pick: UNDER 208.5 (good down to 206.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Denver Nuggets (214 total)
I am really hoping we get Nikola Jokic back in the lineup for Denver today. If that happens, I like Denver's chances of being really competitive with the former champs and maybe even pulling off an upset at home. It also will help this total stay under as Joker is the main cog on offense for Denver and when he plays, they play through him in the half-court and push the ball less often.
The Bucks are almost back to full health and playing well, but really haven't been challenged lately as they've been walking over bad teams (Orlando twice, Detroit, OKC, the LAKERS - yes they are a bad team). Denver has the personnel to match up well with Milwaukee.
I am personally going to wait on this bet and see if we get any more reports on Jokic's status. If he's in, I will hit the under quickly. If he's out, I could see this line moving up a few points before the game tips and the spread will almost certainly widen, too.
The Pick: UNDER 214 (monitor Jokic's status!), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
WE GOTTA HIT A PARLAY TODAY! I'm putting my faith in three moderately-sized favorites and rolling with the Warriors, Wizards, and Bulls to pick up wins and get us a decent little return. All three spreads are a bit too high for my liking, but I feel pretty good about each team's chances of winning.
The Pick: CHI/WAS/GSW ML Parlay (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Positional Stats Matrix
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Here's my positional stats matrix for use when betting player props. For each team, you can see how players from each of the five positions have fared against them in points, rebounds, and assists (and PRA is a total of all three and a popular prop bet type).
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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