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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/26/21)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/26/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Wednesday was absolutely brutal and I took a goose-egg for only the second time this season. Nights like that are rough on a bettor, especially when the Pacers led the entire game before falling in overtime and the Wizards just totally didn't show up and got waxed by an inferior Pelicans team. But there's nowhere to go but up, and I'm back today in relentless pursuit of a clean sweep with more data-driven picks for these Friday night games.

I know I have mentioned this but Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but a general trend that I am seeing is that there are fewer obvious spots to bet each day, making my job all the harder. That's why I used modeled data and trends and try to find multiple angles for these picks daily.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 26th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 26-37
  • Against the Spread 14-10
  • Over/Under 8-12
  • Teasers/Parlays 3-15

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I might have to stop betting on Knicks games going over as they failed to go over (but still won) despite scoring 63 first-half points.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (226 total)

This game should be a fun one and definitely one you'll want to target in DFS. I'm going to have to ignore one major trend here because the Hawks are only 2-8 on the road this season. However, they have won six straight games, including some real quality wins against the Bucks, Celtics, and Hornets in that stretch. Atlanta has been up and down this year as they had dropped six straight prior to their recent run.

Memphis is a team I have a hard time figuring out. They're clearly very talented and have a deep rotation, but they're still very young and have struggled to stop opposing teams on defense this year. They've lost two of their last three games, including a bad loss to Toronto on Wednesday night after they led much of the game.

Vegas has the Hawks as slight dogs here, and I simply think they are a better team right now than Memphis. Let's ride the hot hand of Trae Young and I think Memphis will struggle with the size of John Collins and Clint Capela up front.

The Pick: Hawks ML  (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Washington Wizards (-7.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder  (209.5 total)

This game has the strongest trends to support an under, but unfortunately, Vegas already has set the total a full four points lower than the average NBA game (which is around 213.5). Still, the models suggest that this one could be a low-scoring affair as it ranks below average in pace and both offenses have struggled at times this year.

The Thunder will be without their best offensive player today again as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out of the lineup. That's not good for OKC as Washington has been a stout team defensively this year. Meanwhile, the Wizards have been slumping on offense and have not scored more than 105 points in a game since November 5th (10 straight games). I like the Wizards to win, but to control the tempo of this game and hold the offensively-challenged Thunder in check.

The Pick: UNDER 208.5 (good down to 206.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Denver Nuggets (214 total)

I am really hoping we get Nikola Jokic back in the lineup for Denver today. If that happens, I like Denver's chances of being really competitive with the former champs and maybe even pulling off an upset at home. It also will help this total stay under as Joker is the main cog on offense for Denver and when he plays, they play through him in the half-court and push the ball less often.

The Bucks are almost back to full health and playing well, but really haven't been challenged lately as they've been walking over bad teams (Orlando twice, Detroit, OKC, the LAKERS - yes they are a bad team). Denver has the personnel to match up well with Milwaukee.

I am personally going to wait on this bet and see if we get any more reports on Jokic's status. If he's in, I will hit the under quickly. If he's out, I could see this line moving up a few points before the game tips and the spread will almost certainly widen, too.

The Pick: UNDER 214 (monitor Jokic's status!),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

WE GOTTA HIT A PARLAY TODAY! I'm putting my faith in three moderately-sized favorites and rolling with the Warriors, Wizards, and Bulls to pick up wins and get us a decent little return. All three spreads are a bit too high for my liking, but I feel pretty good about each team's chances of winning.

The Pick: CHI/WAS/GSW ML Parlay (+125  DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Positional Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

Here's my positional stats matrix for use when betting player props. For each team, you can see how players from each of the five positions have fared against them in points, rebounds, and assists (and PRA is a total of all three and a popular prop bet type).

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
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Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
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Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
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Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

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Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
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Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

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To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
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Takes Positive Step On Friday
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Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
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Resting For First Time This Year
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To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
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Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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A Game-Time Decision Friday
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Out On Friday Against Royals
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Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
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Sitting Out For First Time This Season
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Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
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Back In Action On Friday
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Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
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Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
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Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
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Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
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Looks To Bounce Back
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Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
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Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
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An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
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Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
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Battling An Illness
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Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
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Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
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Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
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To Miss Training Camp
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Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
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Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
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A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
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Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
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Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
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Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
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Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
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Making Return To New Orleans
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Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
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Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
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Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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