X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/22/21)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/22/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Welcome back to another edition of my NBA best bets as I hope to begin Thanksgiving week with a bang! My last article was Friday night and the results were mixed again with Charlotte winning and going over their total, while the Clippers lost after being up double-digits at the half and the Nuggets-Bulls game went over the total. Once Nikola Jokic was ruled out, I knew that might be trouble as Denver has been playing much faster (and worse defense) when he's out of the lineup.

We have a full slate of games tonight with twenty NBA teams in action. However, I will warn you that there are a bunch of big spreads and projected blowouts. And Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but there were fewer bets that I landed on than you might expect on a ten-game slate.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 22nd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 24-31
  • Against the Spread 13-7
  • Over/Under 7-11
  • Teasers/Parlays 3-13

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Brooklyn Nets (-6.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (209 total)

Here we are - with me having to recommend my favorite team, the upstart Cleveland Cavs in a game that no one would expect them to compete in at the start of the season.

But the Cavs did compete with Brooklyn last week when these teams faced off despite being down four starters. Brooklyn won by 10 at home and closed Cleveland out, but the Cavs stormed all the way back in the third quarter to make it a game.

Tonight, the Cavs should return Lauri Markkanen to the lineup and starting center Jarrett Allen. Lauri has been out for two weeks due to COVID protocols but I would expect him to be able to at least play 20-25 minutes in his return and Cleveland badly needs more size and shooting. With Allen, Love, and Markkannen now healthy, this Cavs team should be able to compete with Brooklyn tonight at home.

Cleveland has been one of the best teams ATS this season and I have Brooklyn favored by a point or two at best. Yes, they are going to be without Collin Sexton the rest of the year, but this Cleveland team is scrappy and Brooklyn has not pulled away from inferior teams very often.

The Pick: Cavs +6.5  (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Indiana Pacers (+3) @ Chicago Bulls (211.5 total)

The Bulls just continue to keep balling out despite the absence of their star center Nikola Vucevic. They're now 4-2 in their last six games since Vuc was ruled out due to COVID protocols and have collected some really quality wins (Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Knicks) during that stretch.

They're now 12-5 ATS on the season and have been right up there with Golden State as far as one of my favorite teams to bet on with their ability to cover and win close games. Indiana isn't a bad team by any means and they are finally healthy now for the first time in a while. But they've been disappointing overall and very inconsistent. The Pacers are 9-9 ATS with a fairly neutral overall +/- margin. Give me the home team here and they're laying only three points. If it comes down to the final possession, we could be in trouble, but I like the Bulls to win here and pull away with free throws even if the game is competitive down the stretch.

The Pick: Bulls -3  (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (213 total)

So I simply couldn't justify an OVERS today, despite the model liking the Celtics-Rockets. We continue to see the trends favor unders and I am going to continue to follow the data. I have this game pegged for around 209 points and we have some trends and data to back that play up.

Both teams have been going under their totals this season (Minnesota 68%, New Orleans 72%) and we have the largest aggregate under between them on the chart with a combined -7.9 margin on the season.

This is actually the third time these teams have met this year. Both meetings were back in October and those games ended with 185 and 205 total points.

This game projects for a neutral pace of 99 possessions and the lack of offensive efficiency from both squads means we are trending under here once again. I am going under, but there's less margin for error than I would like so I'm only betting it down to 211 here.

The Pick: UNDER 213 (good down to 211),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

I don't really love these spreads or totals too much, so I am going back the well today and building a big ol' money line parlay. I'm backing five home favorites here, four of them are double-digit faves with the Bulls being the only team that isn't heavily favored.

The Pick:: BOS/CHI/UTA/MIL/ATL ML Parlay (+200 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.

For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.24 more than the league average.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Wynns17 mins ago

Collects Three More Hits on Wednesday
Emilio Pagán21 mins ago

Emilio Pagan Closes Out Reds Win
Trevor Larnach33 mins ago

Launches Another Long Ball
Oneil Cruz44 mins ago

Keeps Stacking Stats
Logan Webb1 hour ago

Works Six Scoreless Innings In Giants Win
Christopher Morel1 hour ago

Mashes Second Homer Of The Season
Tyler Herro1 hour ago

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell2 hours ago

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero2 hours ago

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown2 hours ago

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green2 hours ago

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski2 hours ago

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III2 hours ago

Set For MRI Thursday
Chandler Simpson2 hours ago

Extends Hitting Streak To Four Games
Jacob Melton2 hours ago

Quiet Since Returning From Injured List
Lazaro Montes3 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 5
Joel Díaz3 hours ago

Joel Diaz Continues Strong Start To High-A Season
Ryan Clifford3 hours ago

Goes Deep On Wednesday
Jaison Chourio3 hours ago

Hits First Home Run Of High-A Regular Season
Brady Singer8 hours ago

Earns Fourth Win In Quality Start
Corbin Carroll8 hours ago

Keeps Raking With Two More Homers
Carlos Rodón8 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Strong Again In Win Over Cleveland
Luke Keaschall8 hours ago

Shows Off Speed With Two Swipes
J.P. Crawford8 hours ago

Finally Hits First Home Run Of The Season
Teoscar Hernández8 hours ago

Teoscar Hernandez Busts Out Of Slump Wednesday
Andrew Heaney9 hours ago

Tosses Six Shutout Innings
Triston Casas9 hours ago

Launches Three-Run Homer
Jordan Lawlar9 hours ago

Records Another Multi-Hit Performance
George Kittle9 hours ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Tyler Lockett10 hours ago

Joining The Titans
10 hours ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders10 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL10 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
New Orleans Saints10 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb10 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens11 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice11 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
11 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson11 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
Brandin Podziemski13 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis13 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.14 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings14 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson14 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm14 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks14 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions14 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell14 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski15 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford15 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.15 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum15 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart15 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI16 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha16 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers16 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen16 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg16 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane16 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog16 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos18 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans18 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons18 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys18 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints18 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
18 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.24 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander24 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman24 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam24 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges1 day ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA1 day ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle1 day ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland1 day ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić1 day ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy1 day ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens1 day ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard1 day ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares1 day ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout1 day ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen1 day ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young1 day ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov1 day ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen1 day ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi1 day ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg1 day ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane1 day ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa2 days ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry2 days ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Derek Forbort2 days ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry2 days ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening2 days ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee2 days ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass2 days ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon2 days ago

Won't Play In Game 2
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF