Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/21/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/21/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Betting on the NBA can be a rollercoaster for sure and Friday's results represented a valley as my picks went 1-4. The money line parlay was almost intact, but the Bulls lost at the buzzer to the Magic and that one stung. The underdog teaser continues to be on fire and is now up to 11-2 on the year which is not at all what I expected to be carrying the overall record!

We have eight games in the NBA tonight which is a fairly moderate number. The schedule this week sets up for two medium-sized slates today and tomorrow with some BIG slates on Wednesday and Friday as the NBA takes Thursday off for Thanksgiving. I am abandoning totals for tonight, and trust me I tried to find an angle somewhere but injuries are rampant and it's really hard to project the offensive and defensive efficiency of these clubs with so many guys out. But I do have three ATS bets for you, so let's get right to it.

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Overall Record: 36-36
• Against the Spread: 18-17
• Game/Team Totals: 6-9
• Moneyline Parlay: 5-8
• Teasers: 11-2

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (224.5 total)

Oh man, here we go again! As much as I want to avoid picking games with the Cavs in them, we are somewhat limited today in our choices and they just happen to be the best value in my model. Trust me, I am still skeptical about my squad, especially after they dropped five in a row and nearly blew a big lead against the Hornets before winning in double overtime.

But they have won two in a row now and gosh darn it, I still think they're pretty good. There have been some holes in their defense that have been exploited lately and they're very banged up as Kevin Love, Dean Wade, and now Caris LeVert have all found their way onto the injured list. I am not sure if we see any of those three tonight, but the Cavs will still have their big four intact with Garland, Mitchell, Allen, and Mobley. And that's a pretty solid core.

Before I get a bunch of messages from Hawks fans let me go on record as saying "I like the Hawks!" And yes, I had them underrated in my initial NBA Power rankings a few weeks ago. Since then, they have beaten the Bucks twice and the Sixers and they currently have the exact same record as the Cavs. I just think Cleveland is better and their length inside will be a problem for Atlanta's diminutive duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.

The Cavs played last night, but blew out Miami and were able to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. I'm ready to be wrong, but it feels so right to click on Cleveland -2.5.

The Pick: CLE -2.5 (-110 DK)

New York Knicks (+2.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (230.5 total)

This isn't last year's Thunder team, I think we can all acknowledge that by now, right? This team is 7-9 and has been competitive just about every night even in losses. And now they find themselves as home favorites against a team with a better record (only slightly better as the Knicks are 8-9). Call me crazy, but I think OKC has been the better team overall so far this year. And the numbers back it up as they have the better offensive, defensive, and net ratings. The strong play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey along with the development of role players like "Poku" and rookie Jalen Williams make this a fairly formidable team.

The Knicks have been perfectly mediocre and while they have a few solid wins against some good teams, they have just as many bad losses. I am backing the home favorites again here (by the exact same spread) with much of the same justification. I think OKC is better, has a deeper bench, and has the star power to beat the Knicks here at home.

The Pick: OKC -2.5 (-110 DK)

Utah Jazz (+4.5) @ LA Clippers (221.5 total)

When are we going to just stop and say "the Utah Jazz are good!" I made the mistake myself of betting against them after they dropped three straight games and what have they done since? They've beaten a good Phoenix team and a solid Portland team in their last two games. While Damian Lillard did get hurt in that Portland game, we should note that so did Mike Conley and that Utah will have to be without him for a few weeks. Perhaps Conley was the glue that held this team together and now they fall apart?

I don't think so! The Jazz still have incredibly strong guard play from Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton, and the guy who has really stepped up is Malik Beasley off the bench. Utah beat this Clippers team already once this year and survived 34 points from Paul George. Can they do it again now that the Clippers have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup?

I don't see why not. Or at least why we shouldn't give them the benefit of the doubt here. Kawhi is playing limited minutes and while he's still an elite player, he can only affect the outcome so much in 22 minutes per game. I am not betting the Jazz to win outright, but they're getting 4.5 points here despite being the team that has been better all season. Sure, the Clippers could be a force if they are healthy down the stretch, but Utah has been a force for the first month and a half of the season and that's where I am putting my money.

The Pick: UTA +4.5 (-110 DK)

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

NO GAME OR TEAM TOTAL PICKS TODAY

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).

Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.

Favorite Moneyline Parlay:  Milwaukee + Boston + Indiana + Minnesota = (+216 DraftKings)

4.5-point Underdog Teaser: UTAH +9, GSW +9.5, CHICAGO +10.5  = (+150 DraftKings)

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

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