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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/19/21)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/19/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

We have officially entered a cold snap this week and I'm reeling a bit after missing on the Lakers-Bucks over (which was tracking well all game until the fourth quarter) and a Bulls loss (in a game in which they led by 15 at the half!)

But there are going to be peaks and valleys, we all know that. Luckily we have nine more NBA games tonight and in betting, you need to have a short memory and be ready to move on to the next set of games.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 19th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 22-28
  • Against the Spread 12-6
  • Over/Under 7-10
  • Teasers/Parlays 3-12

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Golden State Warriors (-7) @ Detroit Pistons (209.5 total)

So the key factor that is keeping this spread low (compared to where it should be - at least double digits) is the fact that this is a back-to-back for GSW and that Steph Curry is questionable to sit out tonight. It would make total sense for Golden State to rest him here in a cake matchup against arguably the worst team in the league if he has any kind of injury.

But here's the thing. I think the Warriors are good to enough smash the Pistons even without Steph Curry, which is wild to think about as he's an early front-runner for the MVP this year. The Warriors flirted with disaster last night, trailing the Cavs for much of the game before pulling away with a 36-8 fourth quarter to win by 15. THIS TEAM IS GOOD! And while Steph is in an incredible player, much of their success can also be attributed to their defense and how well their secondary players and bench have played this year.

Now Detroit has improved lately and is actually 3-2 over their last five games, so they could hang in this game. But I'm willing to lay seven points on a team that is superior in every way, even without their superstar. And if Steph DOES play, then this game should get out of hand fast.

The Pick: Warriors -7  (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (216 total)

The Clippers are coming off a 12-point loss to Memphis last night, but I'm not going to hold them against them here as Memphis is a solid young team and L.A. was missing a key piece of their rotation in Nicolas Batum. Tonight they get a chance to right the ship and pick up a road win against a woeful New Orleans team that is only 2-14 on the season.

I have the Clippers here by double-digits and I acknowledge that a lot of the metrics for New Orleans don't account for Brandon Ingram's multi-game absence earlier in the year. But the trends line up well for us here, too, as the Pelicans are only 6-10 ATS this season and have lost games by an average margin of 9.6 points this year (second-worst in the league after Houston)

This just feels like a huge mismatch and the spread doesn't reflect that at all. With or without Batum, this Clippers team is significantly better than New Orleans and I think they take care of business on the road with a convincing win.

The Pick: Clippers -3.5  (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Indiana Pacers (+2) @ Charlotte Hornets (214 total)

Some day I will just stop picking overs because it's unders that continue to dominate on a nightly basis. But I have to trust the process, right? The model suggests this total is too low and the fact that Charlotte is only one of six teams to be over .500 (9-7) on overs this season gives me some confidence in this one going over.

The pace in this game is fairly neutral, but we have some pretty poor defenses here as they combine for the second-worst defensive rating on the slate (right behind Toronto-Sacto). I think Indiana's overall offensive efficiency has been a bit suppressed by Brogdon and LeVert both missing stretches early this season. When fully healthy, I think Indiana is an above-average offense and a below-average defense - which is the perfect recipe for an over (and a mirror image of what Charlotte has been this year).

214 total points is right around the average for NBA games so far this season, and I think this total should be a good 3-4 points higher. Let's get an over, shall we?

The Pick: OVER 214 (good up to 216.5),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

BONUS PICK: Charlotte ML (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Chicago Bulls (+3) @ Denver Nuggets (209 total)

If you consult the model, you'll see that this game isn't the biggest projected difference (that is actually LA-NOP) but it has some strong trends backing it up. This total has already dropped a few points so there is less margin for error than there was a few hours ago, but I still have it pegged for around 205 points.

Denver continues to have the largest +/- against their totals this year at -12.6 and is hitting unders at a 73% rate. We will see if that rate can hold up as Vegas continues to drop their totals. Chicago is a good team, but they could struggle offensively here against a solid Denver defense, especially considering they are missing a key cog in their offense - center Nikola Vucevic. With Vuc this season they have an offensive of 112, but over the last five games without him, they've only managed a 106 rating.

This should be a great, competitive game and one that ends up being a slow, hard-fought, defensive struggle. Both teams love to play half-court offense and this game checks in with the lowest projected pace on the slate at only 96.9 projected possessions.

The Pick: UNDER 209 (good down to 207.5),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick:: GSW/LAC/PHO/BKN ML Parlay (+200 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.

For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.24 more than the league average.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
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Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
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Takes Positive Step On Friday
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Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
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Resting For First Time This Year
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To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
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Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
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Remains Out On Friday
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Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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A Game-Time Decision Friday
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Out On Friday Against Royals
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Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
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Sitting Out For First Time This Season
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Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
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Back In Action On Friday
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Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
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Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
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Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
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Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
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Collects Double-Double In Loss
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Drops 30 Points In Game 3
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Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
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Scheduled For Co-Main Event
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Set For Featherweight Bout
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Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
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Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
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Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
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Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
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Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
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Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
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Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
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Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
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Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
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Making Return To New Orleans
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Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
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Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
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Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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