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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/17/21)

Khris Middleton - NBA DFS Picks, Daily Fantasy Basketball

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/17/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

It was an incredibly frustrating Monday for me as I had some bad beats really ruin what I thought were some good picks. The Dallas-Denver game finished at 212 when the Nuggets scored one final basket on the final possession. That game got off to a hot start with both teams shooting well early and even after it slowed down it still inched over the total. The other game I loved was the Suns -3.5. Phoenix had to battle the entire game but took the lead late and was up one when Devin Booker was fouled with around 30 seconds. He's a great free-throw shooter, but he only made 1-2 from the line, and Phoenix led by two. After Minnesota missed their last shot attempt, Jae Crowder was fouled and proceeded to make only 1-2 from the line, too, so Phoenix ended up winning by three - OOF!

The good news is the Warriors pulled through for me last night AND the under hit (if you follow me on Twitter, I posted those bets with my model yesterday). We have almost a full month of data now and I am constantly refining my process and models. It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, November 17th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 22-25
  • Against the Spread 12-5
  • Over/Under 7-9
  • Teasers/Parlays 3-11

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted five spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Chicago Bulls (+1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (219.5 total)

If you haven't been impressed by the improvement in the Chicago Bulls this year, then I'm not sure what you're watching! This team is LEGIT and is playing a totally different style of basketball this year - and having a ton of success in the process.

Chicago's recent road trip has been really eye-opening for me. Consider that they haven't had their starting center Nikola Vucevic and were able to beat the Clippers and Lakers in L.A. They did drop a game to Golden State, but that's nothing to be ashamed of as I firmly believe the Warriors are the best team in the league right now.

The Bulls are 4-1 over their last five and despite being banged up, their core of DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Zach LaVine are getting it done. Chicago is 10-4 ATS this year and I love the way they are playing right now. They are a better team than Portland and like the situation last night with the Warriors, I will take the better team ML at plus odds when I can get it - even on the road. The recent road success from Chicago gives me some confidence as well.

The Pick: Bulls ML +100 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Los Angeles Lakers (+9.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (218 total)

With the way things have trended early on this year with games going under at a massive rate, it's tempting to only write up unders. But the reality is that the market is adjusting, and Vegas simply isn't going to lose money on a nightly basis, they're dropping these totals to where there simply isn't much room for error anymore.

At some point, we are going to have to buck the trend, and this game looks like one of the better options to go over tonight. Even with the Lakers having missed LeBron for much of the season and the Bucks have been without Holiday, Lopez and/or Middleton (and Donte DiVincenzo hasn't played yet either), these two teams are projecting for around 223 points tonight.

When you factor in that Khris Middleton is returning tonight and that the Lakers have got a nice boost from Talen Horton-Tucker (22.5 points per game through his first two games), I think we see both offenses improve going forward. The pace is really attractive here as I have this game projected to go 3-4 possessions above league average. The Bucks like to play fast and the Lakers have been playing faster this year, both teams simply need to be more efficient on offense to get us over the total.

The Pick: OVER 218 (good up to 220),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

Today we tease some underdogs! I like the Wizards, Bulls, and Kings to win and I am banking on my scrappy Cavs to keep it close against Brooklyn. Adding 4.5 points here gives us some cushion for all four teams and despite my really bad record on teasers, I'm taking another shot tonight! This one is going to hit!

The Pick:: WAS/CLE/CHI/SAC +4.5 points teaser (+240 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.

For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.26 more than the league average.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
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Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
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is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
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Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
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Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
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Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
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John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
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Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
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Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
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Eager to Get Back on the Field
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Activated, Playing on Saturday
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on the Move to Indiana
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Stands out on Special Teams
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Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
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Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
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Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
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Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
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Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
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Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
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Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
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Back in Blue Jays Lineup
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Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
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KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
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Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
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Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
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Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
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Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
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Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
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Placed on Injured List
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Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
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Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Calvin Austin III

Private: Calvin Austin III Making Case for No. 2 Role
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
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Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
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