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It's a massive 13-game NBA slate tonight and as usual, I am excited to play some NBA DFS and make some bets! I went 2-2 officially on Monday and the Embiid news really messed with me. I took the Sixers' play off the table but stayed on the over and that didn't work out, but I was glad to see the Warriors cover easily and for the Charlotte game to go way over the total.
Remember, even with 9-10 games worth of data now for each team, we should be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, November 10th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 17-17
- Against the Spread 9-3
- Over/Under 6-5
- Teasers/Parlays 2-9
The Teasers and Parlays are KILLING ME! Oh well, I know many of you understand the risk of playing those compared to straight bets and I feel good about the process so far this season based on the overall results.
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted only three spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Dallas Mavericks (+3.5) @ Chicago Bulls (213 total)
Here we have two teams collide who I have been betting on and against so it's kind of a perfect storm of sorts if you will. Dallas has played better of late, having won three straight and has Porzingis back in the lineup. But they have a really tough matchup tonight against a Chicago team that is coming off a dominant win against Brooklyn and has jumped out to a solid 7-3 record to start the season. Two of their losses have been to the Sixers, and otherwise, the Bulls have been taking care of business behind the strong play of their core four.
The Bulls are also 7-3 ATS this season and are +5.2 points overall ATS. Their average margin of victory has been seven points and that's right around where I have them tonight based on the model. Meanwhile, Dallas is only 3-7 ATS this year with a -5.5 margin overall. All signs point to a Bulls victory tonight and I have no problem backing the stronger team at home. I'll have Chicago -3.5 and likely have their ML in some parlays, too.
The Pick: Bulls -3.5 (good up to -4.5) -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ Golden State Warriors (222 total)
Can anyone stop the Warriors? Seriously, though - why would not continue to ride the hot hand of Steph Curry and this offensive juggernaut that continues to just murder people, especially at home here against an inferior Minnesota squad.
GSW has been breaking my model so far this year and I have to manually adjust my spreads a little to make them more realistic, otherwise, they would be favored by 20 points most nights. I usually don't like laying this many points in the NBA, but the Warriors are winning games by an average margin of 13.7 points.
The Warriors are 6-3-1 ATS while the Wolves are the worst team at covering in the league right now at 2-7. I'm all over GSW again here tonight and I would probably bet them all the way up to around 9-10 points with the way they are rolling (though I don't think you'll have to).
The Pick: GSW -7 (good up to -8.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks (+3) @ New York Knicks (216 total)
WE ARE GOING BACK TO THE WELL ON THE KNICKS OVER TREND! This game has already ticked up a point or half-point on most books so grab it while you can. I have it pegged to go over 220 but I am probably only betting it to around 218.5. We get a wounded Bucks team that is still missing their glue guy (Khris Middleton) and their starting center (Brook Lopez) on the second half of a back-to-back against a Knicks team that pounded them last week.
The Bucks hit 227 total points last night and barely pulled out a win over a Sixers team that was without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Seth Curry (let alone Ben Simmons, too). They simply aren't playing good defense this year and gave up 113 points to these Knicks in the first matchup.
What we really need here is the Bucks offense to do their part. Their first matchup with New York ended with 211 total points, but Milwaukee only scored 35 points in the entire second half which is what caused the game to go under. With Jrue Holiday back in the lineup, Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen playing well, and the reigning MVP Giannis doing Giannis things, I expect the Bucks to do their share of scoring tonight and get us over that total.
The Knicks are 6-5 going over their totals this year but are at +7 in their overall O/U. Milwaukee has been much worse at 3-8 vs. the total this year, but again - they've played much of this season without most of their starting lineup - remember that.
The Pick: OVER 216 (good up to 218.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
I am keeping it simple here and rolling with the Bulls and Warriors ML. When we combine them, we get to a decent +115 payout and I am fine with a more conservative parlay bet tonight (let's get one of these, please!)
The Pick: Chicago/GSW Moneyline parlay (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Player Prop Stats Matrix
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Here's my player prop matrix with each position and how each team has fared against them in points, rebounds, and assists (PRA is all three combined).
For example, Charlotte is allowing 2.7 more points and 4.2 more rebounds to centers than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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