RADIO
Friday was a great night for best bets as we hit three out of four bets and were only a few points away from the Cavs covering and having a clean sweep. I hate picking my own teams for bets and I should have known that Cleveland would be the team to ruin it. What was most frustrating was that they led the Lakers for most of the game and were even up with 9 minutes left to play, only to falter down the stretch and lose by 12 points! I am feeling more confident about my process, though, and that means I may just give out a few more bets per article on days when we get a few really good spots to attack!
We have nine more games tonight and some spots we can definitely attack with bets! Even with 5-6 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 1st, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 10-7
- Against the Spread 5-1
- Over/Under 3-2
- Teasers/Parlays 2-4
Ugh, the Cavs were our first loss ATS this year, but Miami covered easily so we are still crushing those so far this year! I am learning NOT to bet overs too often this year as the under has been trending in a big way so far.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted four spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+3) @ Indiana Pacers (218.5 total)
Simply said, some of the wrong teams are favored today. Even when you factor in the advantage for the home teams, we have some real live dogs on this slate. The Spurs certainly qualify here as they have played well so far this year despite a 2-4 record. Meanwhile, Indiana is 1-6 to start the season and could be missing their star point guard Malcolm Brogdon yet again tonight and maybe Caris LeVert, too.
The Spurs have proven scrappy and are 4-2 ATS this year despite their overall record. Indy is only 2-4 ATS and I have zero faith in them covering at home here with how bad they've looked to start the year. Give me the healthier team and the more balanced team here in San Antonio over the banged-up, cold Pacers.
The Pick: Spurs+3, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook, I will also be adding a half unit on the Spurs ML at +140.
Chicago Bulls (+1.5) @ Boston Celtics (217.5 total)
This feels like a no-brainer to me and if you've followed this column this year you'll know I have been on the Bulls just about every slate so far. They're off to a great start this year and have piled up some real quality wins early (including Utah on Saturday) while their only loss is to a tough Knicks team.
Chicago is 5-1 ATS which is also their overall W/L record. I love their style of play and they've been among the best defensive teams in the league so far, a major improvement over last year. The addition of Lonzo Ball has clearly strengthened their defense while their offense is much more well-rounded this season as DeRozan takes on some of the scoring burden from LaVine and Vucevic.
There's no need to take a point and a half, so let's just take the Chicago money line here and hope they keep things rolling against a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate to a 2-4 record.
The Pick: Chicago ML +105 DraftKings Sportsbook
I really like Denver and Washington as road dogs, too, but let's toss them into our teaser to balance out the risk of betting on too many dogs today either straight up or with the points.
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Toronto (+7) @ New York Knicks (209 total)
We have talked a lot so far this year about the overall trend in the NBA of scoring being down and we are finally starting to see the betting lines catch up to the trend. While last year we regularly saw totals in the 220-230 range, we are now seeing most games in the 210-220 range on a nightly basis. This line started as high as 212 on some books and has dropped all the way to 209 currently.
It's time to buck the trend! There has to be a point where we let these totals bottom out and then jump on the overs. This feels like this game tonight for me and the model backs it up with some indicators pointing to the over.
First, the Knicks are one of the most improved offenses in the league when you compare their offensive rating to last year AND they are playing a little faster, too. We are seeing some data to back that up as the Knicks have gone over their total in four of six games this year and have the largest point differential in the league! What we need here is Toronto to do their part! The Raptors stumbled out the gates with an 86-point performance on opening night, which is keeping their overall net +/- rating down, but they've shown some positive signs of improving on offense with the emergence of Scottie Barnes and the return of Chris Boucher to the rotation as a big man who can score off the bench.
I am hitting the OVER in a Knicks game this year because this is a NEW SEASON and we need to embrace new trends and try to get out in front of them. This total being bet down has actually created some value here and I love it over 209, if it drops further - keep betting it! If it bounces back up I like it up to 211.
The Pick: OVER 209 (good up to 211), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Today we are parlaying all four underdogs. While I like all four of their chances of winning, the odds of them all pulling it off are not all that likely. But the odds of them all winning or keeping it close are pretty good and I like this payout quite a bit for these teams in these spots.
The Picks: Chicago, Washington, Denver, San Antonio 4.5 point teaser (+240 DK Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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