X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/1/21)

Dejounte Murray daily fantasy basketball NBA DFS lineup picks

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/1/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Friday was a great night for best bets as we hit three out of four bets and were only a few points away from the Cavs covering and having a clean sweep. I hate picking my own teams for bets and I should have known that Cleveland would be the team to ruin it. What was most frustrating was that they led the Lakers for most of the game and were even up with 9 minutes left to play, only to falter down the stretch and lose by 12 points! I am feeling more confident about my process, though, and that means I may just give out a few more bets per article on days when we get a few really good spots to attack!

We have nine more games tonight and some spots we can definitely attack with bets! Even with 5-6 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 1st, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 10-7
  • Against the Spread 5-1
  • Over/Under 3-2
  • Teasers/Parlays 2-4

Ugh, the Cavs were our first loss ATS this year, but Miami covered easily so we are still crushing those so far this year! I am learning NOT to bet overs too often this year as the under has been trending in a big way so far.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted four spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

San Antonio Spurs (+3) @ Indiana Pacers (218.5 total)

Simply said, some of the wrong teams are favored today. Even when you factor in the advantage for the home teams, we have some real live dogs on this slate. The Spurs certainly qualify here as they have played well so far this year despite a 2-4 record. Meanwhile, Indiana is 1-6 to start the season and could be missing their star point guard Malcolm Brogdon yet again tonight and maybe Caris LeVert, too.

The Spurs have proven scrappy and are 4-2 ATS this year despite their overall record. Indy is only 2-4 ATS and I have zero faith in them covering at home here with how bad they've looked to start the year. Give me the healthier team and the more balanced team here in San Antonio over the banged-up, cold Pacers.

The Pick: Spurs+3,  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook, I will also be adding a half unit on the Spurs ML at +140.

 

Chicago Bulls (+1.5) @ Boston Celtics (217.5 total)

This feels like a no-brainer to me and if you've followed this column this year you'll know I have been on the Bulls just about every slate so far. They're off to a great start this year and have piled up some real quality wins early (including Utah on Saturday) while their only loss is to a tough Knicks team.

Chicago is 5-1 ATS which is also their overall W/L record. I love their style of play and they've been among the best defensive teams in the league so far, a major improvement over last year. The addition of Lonzo Ball has clearly strengthened their defense while their offense is much more well-rounded this season as DeRozan takes on some of the scoring burden from LaVine and Vucevic.

There's no need to take a point and a half, so let's just take the Chicago money line here and hope they keep things rolling against a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate to a 2-4 record.

The Pick: Chicago ML  +105 DraftKings Sportsbook

I really like Denver and Washington as road dogs, too, but let's toss them into our teaser to balance out the risk of betting on too many dogs today either straight up or with the points.

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Toronto (+7) @ New York Knicks (209 total)

We have talked a lot so far this year about the overall trend in the NBA of scoring being down and we are finally starting to see the betting lines catch up to the trend. While last year we regularly saw totals in the 220-230 range, we are now seeing most games in the 210-220 range on a nightly basis. This line started as high as 212 on some books and has dropped all the way to 209 currently.

It's time to buck the trend! There has to be a point where we let these totals bottom out and then jump on the overs. This feels like this game tonight for me and the model backs it up with some indicators pointing to the over.

First, the Knicks are one of the most improved offenses in the league when you compare their offensive rating to last year AND they are playing a little faster, too. We are seeing some data to back that up as the Knicks have gone over their total in four of six games this year and have the largest point differential in the league! What we need here is Toronto to do their part! The Raptors stumbled out the gates with an 86-point performance on opening night, which is keeping their overall net +/- rating down, but they've shown some positive signs of improving on offense with the emergence of Scottie Barnes and the return of Chris Boucher to the rotation as a big man who can score off the bench.

I am hitting the OVER in a Knicks game this year because this is a NEW SEASON and we need to embrace new trends and try to get out in front of them. This total being bet down has actually created some value here and I love it over 209, if it drops further - keep betting it! If it bounces back up I like it up to 211.

The Pick: OVER 209 (good up to 211),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

Today we are parlaying all four underdogs. While I like all four of their chances of winning, the odds of them all pulling it off are not all that likely. But the odds of them all winning or keeping it close are pretty good and I like this payout quite a bit for these teams in these spots.

The Picks: Chicago, Washington, Denver, San Antonio 4.5 point teaser (+240 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF