Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/28/22)

October 28, 2022

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 10/28/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

The NBA is teeming with awesome games on this fabulous Friday night! Eleven NBA contests will tip off tonight and I'm back with my favorite picks for these contests.

We have two rematches from Wednesday, a trend we have seen a few times already in the schedule. The Raptors will face the Sixers for the second time in three nights while the Pistons have to deal with the Hawks again on short notice, too. I am avoiding these games with my bets because it is, in my opinion, not a best practice to rely too much on a one-game sample between teams nor is it logical to just go opposite what happened last time either. So let's see which of the other nine games we want to wager on this evening!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Overall Record: 12-12
• Against the Spread: 5-5
• Game/Team Totals: 2-4
• Moneyline Parlay: 2-2
• Teasers: 3-1

NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers (+6) @ Boston Celtics (219 total)

This is by far one of the biggest match-ups of the evening as the defending Eastern Conference champs host the up-and-coming Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams are 3-1 right now, but the Cavs loss was back on opening night to a good Toronto team at home while Boston is coming off a loss on Monday to Chicago.

The Celtics had a huge lead in the first quarter only to see it totally evaporate in the second quarter. After making a run in the third to get it close again, the Bulls extended that lead and finished them off with an 18-point win. That result really surprised me as the Celtics had looked superb through three games.

The Cavs beat up on that same Chicago team, so by the transitive property, they are better than Boston, right? Well, of course not, but with very little to go off this season, it does mean something. LaVine didn't play for Chicago that game, but the Cavs have still looked great this year even without their star point guard Darius Garland who is set to miss tonight's contest, too.

I wish Garland was playing, but Donovan Mitchell has been absolutely fantastic as the lead guard in his absence. The Cavs have a huge size advantage on Boston that should lead to a rebounding advantage and their length could bother Jayson Tatum and company in this one. I look for this game to be a low-scoring battle that comes down to the final few possessions. The Cavs are getting too many points here and I think they could win this outright or at least take Boston to the wire.

The Pick: CLE +6 (-110 DK)

Utah Jazz (+8.5) @ Denver Nuggets (229 total)

Who pegged the Jazz to be 4-1 after the first week and a half of this season? I don't think anyone did and perhaps they should consider that winning games isn't going to help them land Victor as the top draft pick next season. But it's kind of nice seeing a young team actually playing to win and maybe Utah could have a quick turnaround (like Cleveland did) by building through trades and the draft without landing a superstar.

Regardless of what the rest of the season holds for the Jazz, they're playing well right now and beat this Nuggets team by 21 points on opening night! Denver has since won three of their last four games which included a big win over the defending champion Warriors, so it's not like they are totally slumping out of the gates.

On Wednesday, the Nuggets beat up on the woeful Lakers in an 11-point win at home. Now they welcome Utah to their homecourt ready to smash them as revenge for getting embarrassed in their opener, right? I'm not so sure. Denver is a weird team to figure out and they could just as easily let down after a big win as they could be up for this game. The data backs the Jazz here, who have been +8.3 ATS this year overall while Denver has been -9.3. Denver's number is so poor because of that first 18-point loss to Utah but because they also lost by 25 to Portland on the road. The Nuggets are hot and cold so far and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they came out flat in this one. The Jazz are getting too many points for the performances they've had so far. Perhaps their early season success is a fluke, but I'd rather take the underdog on such a big number.

The Pick: UTA +8.5 (-110 DK)

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Chicago Bulls (-5) @ San Antonio Spurs (229 total)

The Bulls are slowly rounding into form as once they got Zach LaVine back in the lineup, they were able to get their offense going more consistently and are less reliant on DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic to do it all. They've also had solid contributions from the rest of their rotation and it's looking like they will have more reliable depth this season.

The Spurs will be without Devin Vassell again tonight, but they also missed him on Wednesday and it didn't stop them from scoring 122 points (and allowing 134) against the Timberwolves. The Spurs are a team I would continue to attack with opposing offenses, their defense is bad and they're obviously not playing for this season so they have no problem going out and getting into track meets, just trying to score points. The Bulls' offense is good and their defense is poor enough that I think the Spurs can keep up for a bit. This game projects for the second fastest pace on the evening, giving me some confidence that we see a lot of scoring overall.

The Pick: OVER 229 (-110 DK)

Charlotte Hornets (-3) @ Orlando Magic (224.5 total)

This game has the highest rating in my model tonight and some strong trends to back up the over here. Despite playing without Rozier or Ball, the Hornets have been scoring a boatload of points recently. On the season, they are a perfect 4-0 on the over with a massive +16.8 +/- margin. Orlando has been very average on offense this year but will be paced up here against Charlotte and their big men (the strength of their team right now with all their guards hurt) get a great match-up against a weak Charlotte interior.

Both teams are banged up, but their reserves are capable players and neither team is very good on defense. I expected to see this total closer to 230, which is where it should be. I am pounding the over here and expect to see this number move up throughout the day.

The Pick: OVER 224.5 (-110 DK)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).

Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.

Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Phoenix + Washington + Atlanta + Minnesota = (+285 DraftKings)

Underdog 4.5 point Teaser: Cleveland +10, Utah +12.5, Houston +9 = (+170 DraftKings)

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