X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/27/21)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 10/27/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

It's an awesome 10-game slate of NBA action tonight and I'm back with my favorite betting picks - some data-driven picks and I always show my work so that you can start to see my process and refine your own. Monday was a success as we had the Bulls cover once again by only a half-point (it still counts) and the Brooklyn-Washington game went WAY under the total.

Even with 3-4 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, October 27th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Overview

For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.

I have been working hard over the last year developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 6-4
  • Against the Spread 3-0
  • Over/Under 2-1
  • Teasers/Parlays 1-3

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser.

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Miami Heat (+4) @ Brooklyn Nets (220 total)

This game should be a good one and I expect it to be competitive right down to the final buzzer. I have Miami rated ahead of Brooklyn so far this season and they have been a better basketball team over the first week by just about every statistical measure. I have Miami as big favorites in my model and I was pleased to see that Mr. Sagarin's ratings agreed with me here, though he has Miami favored by only four.

The Heat are 2-1 with their biggest win of the year being an absolute drubbing of the defending champion Bucks in their opener. They lost in OT to Indiana but beat Orlando for their second win. Miami plays a slow, controlled style of basketball and can struggle to score at times. But they also play some damn good defense and think they have the personnel to match up well with Brooklyn here.

Jimmy Butler can guard Harden, who has struggled to get going so far this year while Bam Adebayo can stick to Durant. Brooklyn is 2-2 this year with wins over Philly and Washington but bad losses to Charlotte and Milwaukee. They are trying to find some chemistry with their new role players and clearly missing Kyrie Irving as their offense has sputtered at times when one of KD or Harden is off the floor.

Give me Miami and the points and I'll even have some money on them straight up. They tend to play up to their competition and I just love how tough and hard-nosed this team is. They usually win these types of games with their gritty play.

The Pick: Miami +4,  -105 DraftKings Sportsbook, I'll also have a half unit on Miami ML at +150

If you're looking for another dog to back, I like Memphis quite a bit, but I'm not adding them to the official picks today!

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

There are obviously a few spots that really stand out here today, but early line movement has already eaten up some of the value that I liked on the CHA-ORL over and CLE-LAC as those lines have jumped up a few points already. I should mention that Charlotte and Orlando have both gone over their total in three of four games this year!

The two big under plays here are ATL-NO and MIA-BKN, but even with those numbers popping, I am hesitant to go under there based on the totals already being pretty low. I'll toss them in our teaser at the end and we will tease a bunch of totals today for safety.

Memphis (+3) @ Portland (234 total)

Listen, I don't really love betting the over on the highest point total on the slate, but everything I am seeing suggests that the total isn't high enough. Now, I said the same thing about the Portland-L.A. Clippers game a few days ago and the Blazers didn't show up - and it turned into a blowout, so obviously anything can happen. But I think this game should remain competitive and Portland bounces back here.

Memphis games have hit the over all three times this year and Portland has gone over twice. Everything lines up here as this game has a massive projected pace, poor defensive metrics for both teams, and some talented and efficient offenses.

Just don't go too crazy here if this total keeps climbing. I think 235 or 236 is as high as I would go, even though I have it pegged for 240+. You never want to be sweating the last basket or two, I like to have a little wiggle room whenever possible!

The Pick: Over 234 (good up to 235.5),  -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

So let's try this tonight and please remember that anytime you are betting stuff higher than +200, you want to consider the risk and practice responsible bankroll management. I'd roll with a quarter or half unit here on these totals and the only one I didn't mention earlier was the Cavs-Clippers which really pops for me due to Cleveland's increased pace and offensive efficiency this season.

The Picks: Five-game O/U 5 point teaser (+350 DK Sportsbook) 

 

NBA Betting Picks: Player Props Matrix

(click image to enlarge)

This is something new that I will be adding to my articles going forward! While player props usually don't come out early enough for me to include in the articles, I can at least give you some data to help make those picks!

We are using only 3-4 games of data here but you can use the chart to find which teams have allowed the most points, rebounds, and assists to each position (compared to the league average). PRA is the total of all three stats - again, compared to league average and PRA bets are some of my favorites! Just be warned that some big performances early on have skewed the numbers a bit!

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF