RADIO
It's an awesome 10-game slate of NBA action tonight and I'm back with my favorite betting picks - some data-driven picks and I always show my work so that you can start to see my process and refine your own. Monday was a success as we had the Bulls cover once again by only a half-point (it still counts) and the Brooklyn-Washington game went WAY under the total.
Even with 3-4 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, October 27th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last year developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 6-4
- Against the Spread 3-0
- Over/Under 2-1
- Teasers/Parlays 1-3
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser.
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Miami Heat (+4) @ Brooklyn Nets (220 total)
This game should be a good one and I expect it to be competitive right down to the final buzzer. I have Miami rated ahead of Brooklyn so far this season and they have been a better basketball team over the first week by just about every statistical measure. I have Miami as big favorites in my model and I was pleased to see that Mr. Sagarin's ratings agreed with me here, though he has Miami favored by only four.
The Heat are 2-1 with their biggest win of the year being an absolute drubbing of the defending champion Bucks in their opener. They lost in OT to Indiana but beat Orlando for their second win. Miami plays a slow, controlled style of basketball and can struggle to score at times. But they also play some damn good defense and think they have the personnel to match up well with Brooklyn here.
Jimmy Butler can guard Harden, who has struggled to get going so far this year while Bam Adebayo can stick to Durant. Brooklyn is 2-2 this year with wins over Philly and Washington but bad losses to Charlotte and Milwaukee. They are trying to find some chemistry with their new role players and clearly missing Kyrie Irving as their offense has sputtered at times when one of KD or Harden is off the floor.
Give me Miami and the points and I'll even have some money on them straight up. They tend to play up to their competition and I just love how tough and hard-nosed this team is. They usually win these types of games with their gritty play.
The Pick: Miami +4, -105 DraftKings Sportsbook, I'll also have a half unit on Miami ML at +150
If you're looking for another dog to back, I like Memphis quite a bit, but I'm not adding them to the official picks today!
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
There are obviously a few spots that really stand out here today, but early line movement has already eaten up some of the value that I liked on the CHA-ORL over and CLE-LAC as those lines have jumped up a few points already. I should mention that Charlotte and Orlando have both gone over their total in three of four games this year!
The two big under plays here are ATL-NO and MIA-BKN, but even with those numbers popping, I am hesitant to go under there based on the totals already being pretty low. I'll toss them in our teaser at the end and we will tease a bunch of totals today for safety.
Memphis (+3) @ Portland (234 total)
Listen, I don't really love betting the over on the highest point total on the slate, but everything I am seeing suggests that the total isn't high enough. Now, I said the same thing about the Portland-L.A. Clippers game a few days ago and the Blazers didn't show up - and it turned into a blowout, so obviously anything can happen. But I think this game should remain competitive and Portland bounces back here.
Memphis games have hit the over all three times this year and Portland has gone over twice. Everything lines up here as this game has a massive projected pace, poor defensive metrics for both teams, and some talented and efficient offenses.
Just don't go too crazy here if this total keeps climbing. I think 235 or 236 is as high as I would go, even though I have it pegged for 240+. You never want to be sweating the last basket or two, I like to have a little wiggle room whenever possible!
The Pick: Over 234 (good up to 235.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
So let's try this tonight and please remember that anytime you are betting stuff higher than +200, you want to consider the risk and practice responsible bankroll management. I'd roll with a quarter or half unit here on these totals and the only one I didn't mention earlier was the Cavs-Clippers which really pops for me due to Cleveland's increased pace and offensive efficiency this season.
The Picks: Five-game O/U 5 point teaser (+350 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Player Props Matrix
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This is something new that I will be adding to my articles going forward! While player props usually don't come out early enough for me to include in the articles, I can at least give you some data to help make those picks!
We are using only 3-4 games of data here but you can use the chart to find which teams have allowed the most points, rebounds, and assists to each position (compared to the league average). PRA is the total of all three stats - again, compared to league average and PRA bets are some of my favorites! Just be warned that some big performances early on have skewed the numbers a bit!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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