RADIO
Monday I kept it to only two picks and a teaser and we went 1-1 as the Grizzlies took care of business but the Miami-Golden State game went over its total and the Rockets totally collapsed in the fourth quarter to lose by 20 points. We live to fight another day and there just happens to be a bunch of games tonight so let's get back after it!
Today we have a massive 11-game slate, but naturally, we have dozens of injuries and COVID issues to sort through. Just understand that I am making these picks in the morning and that things can happen during the course of the day that really affects game totals and spreads. Betting on the NBA is risky right now. I'm not saying we can't still do it successfully, just be aware of the risk.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, January 5th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 66-74
- Against the Spread 38-28
- Over/Under 19-22
- Other/Props 4-4
- Teasers/Parlays 5-21
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
(click to enlarge)
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+8) @ Boston Celtics (224 total)
The Spurs are a bit of a mess and after hanging tough for the first half last night, they were wiped out by the Raptors in the second half last night. Yes, they are on the road tonight and on the second half of a back-to-back, but it looks like they will get their best player Dejounte Murray back for this game which should really help their cause quite a bit. They're still missing Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker, but this is a relatively deep, young team.
The Celtics are getting healthy and are a good team. Are they 9 points better though? Listen, the trends line up here. The Spurs are 10-9 ATS on the road. They're 14-11 ATS as underdogs, 3-3 ATS on back-to-backs, and my favorite trend is that they're 11-10 ATS coming off a loss. The Spurs are a tough team to figure out, but they're not a bad team and Boston aren't world-beaters by any means as they have only a 1-point margin of victory on the season. I'm backing the road dogs here and banking on Murray to make a big impact in his return.
The Pick: Spurs +8 (-115 DK Sportsbook)
Two other games I'm considering, but not entirely committed to yet are in yellow on the chart. I like Miami on the road against the Blazers (even without Butler as the Blazers are missing a bunch of people, too). I also think you could grab Indiana with the points, especially if there is optimism that they get Brogdon back for that game.
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (215 total)
Instead of backing the Heat ATS tonight, I'm looking at taking the over here. Portland is without Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum but pulled out a big win on Monday against Atlanta behind some really strong outings from Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and Norman Powell. So Portland is a little scary at home here, especially for a Miami team that will be without Jimmy Butler.
Miami is usually a pretty stout team on defense, but without Butler and Bam they have huge holes in their defense. They're actually second in the NBA now at going over their totals at a 62% clip and a lot of that has to do with their lack of defense playing shorthanded. Portland rates pretty neutral on defense, but we saw Trae Young drop 50+ on them the other night and we know Miami still has some very capable scorers in Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro. I think we see this game pace up a bit and end up relatively high-scoring as the Atlanta-Portland game did the other night. I like some of these guys in DFS a lot and I think this total is a full 3-4 points too low.
The Pick: OVER 215 (good up to 218.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets (-8) @ Indiana Pacers (225 total)
We will see the debut of Kyrie Irving tonight for the Nets as they travel to Indiana, allowing him to play despite being unvaccinated. While Kyrie will certainly be a boon to the Nets offense and take some pressure off Harden and Durant who have been doing the bulk of the heavy lifting for Brooklyn, we aren't sure just how many minutes he will play or he's in any kind of game shape just yet.
This game could go a lot of different ways and there's certainly a path to a Brooklyn blowout if the Pacers don't get Brogdon back and have to play their main guys big minutes again. Brooklyn is coming off a bad loss to Memphis where they got really bogged down on offense and couldn't get much going. Like I said earlier, I am only backing the Pacers if we get some news that they get Brogdon back, otherwise, I have little faith in them covering. But I think we can attack the under here as this game projects a full seven points under its current total in my model and is backed by a few trends, too.
Indiana managed only 94 points last night against the Knicks and both teams have been playing slower than league average pace this season. Indiana just doesn't have that many offensive options after Sabonis and young points guard Keifer Sykes. Yet, Indiana's defense isn't all that bad and they could slow Brooklyn down enough to keep this game under it's lofty total.
The Pick: UNDER 225 (good down to 223) -110 DK Sportsbook
I'm going back to a three-team ML parlay today with three favorites that I like to win, I just don't love how many points they are laying.
The Pick: Washington/Golden State/Minnesota ML Parlay (+145 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
(click to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!
