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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (1/5/21)

Monday I kept it to only two picks and a teaser and we went 1-1 as the Grizzlies took care of business but the Miami-Golden State game went over its total and the Rockets totally collapsed in the fourth quarter to lose by 20 points. We live to fight another day and there just happens to be a bunch of games tonight so let's get back after it!

Today we have a massive 11-game slate, but naturally, we have dozens of injuries and COVID issues to sort through. Just understand that I am making these picks in the morning and that things can happen during the course of the day that really affects game totals and spreads. Betting on the NBA is risky right now. I'm not saying we can't still do it successfully, just be aware of the risk.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, January 5th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 66-74
  • Against the Spread 38-28
  • Over/Under 19-22
  • Other/Props 4-4
  • Teasers/Parlays 5-21

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

San Antonio Spurs (+8) @ Boston Celtics (224 total)

The Spurs are a bit of a mess and after hanging tough for the first half last night, they were wiped out by the Raptors in the second half last night. Yes, they are on the road tonight and on the second half of a back-to-back, but it looks like they will get their best player Dejounte Murray back for this game which should really help their cause quite a bit. They're still missing Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker, but this is a relatively deep, young team.

The Celtics are getting healthy and are a good team. Are they 9 points better though? Listen, the trends line up here. The Spurs are 10-9 ATS on the road. They're 14-11 ATS as underdogs, 3-3 ATS on back-to-backs, and my favorite trend is that they're 11-10 ATS coming off a loss. The Spurs are a tough team to figure out, but they're not a bad team and Boston aren't world-beaters by any means as they have only a 1-point margin of victory on the season. I'm backing the road dogs here and banking on Murray to make a big impact in his return.

The Pick: Spurs +8 (-115 DK Sportsbook) 

Two other games I'm considering, but not entirely committed to yet are in yellow on the chart. I like Miami on the road against the Blazers (even without Butler as the Blazers are missing a bunch of people, too). I also think you could grab Indiana with the points, especially if there is optimism that they get Brogdon back for that game.

 

NBA Over/Under Betting Picks

Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (215 total)

Instead of backing the Heat ATS tonight, I'm looking at taking the over here. Portland is without Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum but pulled out a big win on Monday against Atlanta behind some really strong outings from Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and Norman Powell. So Portland is a little scary at home here, especially for a Miami team that will be without Jimmy Butler.

Miami is usually a pretty stout team on defense, but without Butler and Bam they have huge holes in their defense. They're actually second in the NBA now at going over their totals at a 62% clip and a lot of that has to do with their lack of defense playing shorthanded. Portland rates pretty neutral on defense, but we saw Trae Young drop 50+ on them the other night and we know Miami still has some very capable scorers in Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro. I think we see this game pace up a bit and end up relatively high-scoring as the Atlanta-Portland game did the other night. I like some of these guys in DFS a lot and I think this total is a full 3-4 points too low.

The Pick: OVER 215 (good up to 218.5) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

Brooklyn Nets (-8) @ Indiana Pacers (225 total)

We will see the debut of Kyrie Irving tonight for the Nets as they travel to Indiana, allowing him to play despite being unvaccinated. While Kyrie will certainly be a boon to the Nets offense and take some pressure off Harden and Durant who have been doing the bulk of the heavy lifting for Brooklyn, we aren't sure just how many minutes he will play or he's in any kind of game shape just yet.

This game could go a lot of different ways and there's certainly a path to a Brooklyn blowout if the Pacers don't get Brogdon back and have to play their main guys big minutes again. Brooklyn is coming off a bad loss to Memphis where they got really bogged down on offense and couldn't get much going. Like I said earlier, I am only backing the Pacers if we get some news that they get Brogdon back, otherwise, I have little faith in them covering. But I think we can attack the under here as this game projects a full seven points under its current total in my model and is backed by a few trends, too.

Indiana managed only 94 points last night against the Knicks and both teams have been playing slower than league average pace this season. Indiana just doesn't have that many offensive options after Sabonis and young points guard Keifer Sykes. Yet, Indiana's defense isn't all that bad and they could slow Brooklyn down enough to keep this game under it's lofty total.

The Pick: UNDER 225 (good down to 223) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

I'm going back to a three-team ML parlay today with three favorites that I like to win, I just don't love how many points they are laying.

The Pick: Washington/Golden State/Minnesota ML Parlay (+145 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

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Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
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Makes Early Exit
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Removed Early On Friday
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Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
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Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
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Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
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Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
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To Remain Out Saturday
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Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
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Iffy For Saturday's Action
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Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

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Ja Morant

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Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
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To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
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To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
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Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
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Remains Out On Friday
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Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
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Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
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Collects Double-Double In Loss
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Drops 30 Points In Game 3
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Scheduled For Co-Main Event
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Set For Featherweight Bout
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Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
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Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
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Exits Early Thursday
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Hurt In Game 2
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Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
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Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
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A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
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A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
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Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
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Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
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Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
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Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
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Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
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Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
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Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
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