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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 1/31/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
Friday we had a weird small slate and then yesterday I simply wasn't able to get any picks out to the public in the morning. But today we have five NBA games and oddly enough there's an angle I like in nearly every game so I am going to roll out some Tuesday NBA betting picks instead!
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. Props have been hot lately, too!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, January 31st.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 100-110-1
- Against the Spread: 47-55-1
- Game/Team Totals: 11-25
- Moneyline Parlay: 15-21
- Teasers: 24-10
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
LA Clippers (-2.5) @ Chicago Bulls (226 total)
Let's start with this match-up between the Clippers and the Bulls, two teams that have underperformed compared to their preseason expectations. The difference, for me, is that the Clippers are trending up over the last month and have been a formidable team when both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are on the court together. You have to throw out some of the season-long numbers for LA as Kawhi has missed so many games (and George has missed his share, too) that it really skews the data.
The Clippers had won five in a row before resting both players on Sunday and allowing their backups to get annihilated by the Cavs starters. But they're rested and ready to go tonight in a game where they should simply be favored by more points in my opinion.
Chicago continues to be a tough team to predict on a nightly basis and they've beaten some quality teams this year while losing to some lower-tier teams more often than they should. They'll battle, but they're not very good defensively and I don't really trust either Zach LaVine or Nikola Vucevic in big games, as DeMar DeRozan is their only big-play guy in crunch time. PG13 and Kawhi are both killers and I think they will this Clippers team to a big road win today. I have them winning by 5-6 points, so this spread is a no-brainer and the biggest disparity in my projections from the current Vegas lines.
The Pick: Clippers -2.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers (+3) @ New York Knicks (231 total)
The Lakers rested both Anthony Davis and LeBron James last night against the Nets so that their superstar duo could be ready to go for this one tonight. Westbrook and the Lakers backups went down big early, then fought back to actually lead that game in the third quarter, before finally losing by 17 points. But last night doesn't matter all that much.
The Lakers looked pretty solid on Friday night when they took the Celtics to OT and likely should have won that game as LeBron was fouled at the buzzer and the refs didn't call it. Sure, Boston was missing a few guys and didn't play their best. And I have been one of the biggest critics of the Lakers this season. But with AD back, Westbrook playing much better than he did last season, and some pretty decent other pieces around them (Lonnie Walker is back, Schroder is playing well, Bryant, Hachimura, Beverley, etc...) the Lakers can compete with just about anyone on any given night.
The Knicks are an enigma to me. They have probably played a bit above their heads this season and pretty dependent on Julius Randle's shooting/scoring every night. They probably deserve to be favored here, but not by much. LeBron is playing as well as anyone right now and the Lakers could win this game outright. I'll probably sprinkle some Lakers' ML, but my official bet is taking the points here.
The Pick: Lakers +3 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game/Team Totals
New Orleans Pelicans (+7) @ Denver Nuggets (234 total)
I have been struggling with totals and have almost given up on them - full disclosure. My model loves the under in the Bucks-Hornets game, but I just can't go there since the Bucks are a fully functional death star on offense right now since Middleton came back and the Hornets are allergic to defense.
But the model also likes the under in this one, and the data backs up that play even better. These teams just met a week ago and played to a 99-98 final score. That's quite a bit under 234, isn't it? Their first meeting was a Pelicans' win that finished at 121-106, still a full seven points under this total, too.
I like the Pelicans to keep it close here, but I am not betting them to cover (other than in our teaser). I do think they play enough defense to slow down the Nuggets and that this game has a great shot of finishing under 234.
The Pick: UNDER 234 (-110)
MONEYLINE PARLAY
CLE + DEN + MIL = (+139 DK)
FAVORITE UNDERDOG TEASER (buying 4 points)
NOP +11, LAL +7 = (-110 DK)
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