X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (1/31/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 1/31/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Friday's NBA slate was very much a mixed bag for me. While I did pretty well in DFS, the two bets I recommend in this column both missed, and a few others I liked (but not quite as much) hit. That's why I always supply my model as well and try to highlight a few other good spots there. The Spurs have been a team I've targeted a lot ATS this season and sure enough, they pulled off a nice upset against the Bulls on Friday and I was too chicken to recommend them. You win some, you lose some, and even after an 0-2 Friday I am still sitting (though precariously) at one game above .500 on the season.

It seems like the COVID craziness that made making picks so difficult for the last few months is finally waning, but we still have a lot of injury situations to deal with even with only eight games on the docket tonight. Just proceed with caution as always.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, January 31st, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 69-68
  • Against the Spread 43-37
  • Over/Under 20-27
  • Other/Props 6-4
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (210 total)

So let's address the elephant in the room right away. Yes, the Cavs dropped a game to the lowly Detroit Pistons last night, losing by 10 points after leading nearly the entire game. While that really sucked for Cavs fans and bettors alike, it was a pretty fluky outcome when you consider the entire season-long sample size from these Cavs. They've been fantastic against the spread all season long, whether that's at home or on the road.

I'm still getting used to seeing them as such heavy favorites on nights where they face inferior opponents, but I think this spread is well-deserved tonight and that the Cavs can cover it. Throw away yesterday's result and focus on the fact that this Cavs team is still 8-2 over their last ten games, while the Pelicans are a mere 4-6 and have dropped three in a row.

New Orleans could be without Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, and Josh Hart in this game, too. They lost their last three games by an average of 10.3 points and I think we see that trend continue here with a double-digit Cavs victory.

The only time these teams met earlier in the year, the Pelicans prevailed 108-104 but the Cavs were without their lifeblood Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen in that game.

The Pick: Cavs -7.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (217 total)

I will just start by saying this is a nice game for DFS tonight, as the Thunder players will all make appealing targets with their main man Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup. But for that same reason, I think the Blazers should be much bigger favorites than they currently are, even on the road.

OKC just isn't the same team without SGA. They're 0-5 without him this season and even when we toss out the historic 76-point loss to Memphis as an outlier, their net rating drops to -11.5 in the other four games combined without SGA. When I look at Portland, I see a team that has been pretty resilient of late when you consider they are still without their superstar Damien Lillard and have been battling injuries to important role players like Robert Covington, Nassir Little, and Larry Nance Jr. Portland is 4-4 since C.J. McCollum returned to the lineup and has a net rating right around zero.

I'm loading up on the Blazers here, I think they cover this spread with ease tonight based on their strong recent play and how bad OKC has been without their best player.

The Pick: Blazers -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Boston Celtics (208 total)

This pick really relies on the Heat's leader, Jimmy Butler, playing tonight. So if you want to wait to see that confirmed, I don't blame you. If Butler was absolutely going to play, I think this spread would be closer so there must be some healthy skepticism about his availability in the betting community.

Having said that, if Butler is in then the Heat should be favored or we should at least have a pick 'em here. Miami has been a better team without Boston all year and the absence of Kyle Lowry from their lineup hasn't had much effect on their net rating at all.

How about these trends, too? Miami is 13-3 ATS as the underdog this season with a league-best +13 point differential. They're also 15-11 on the road ATS. When you combine the two trends, they're 9-3 as road underdogs with a +10 differential.

I'll take Miami with the points now, and if Butler gets ruled in then I'll add Miami ML to my card (hopefully still at plus odds) at that point.

The Pick: Heat +4.5 (Butler's status is paramount here) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

Let's roll out a nice home favorite ML parlay today! Give me the Cavs, Knicks, Pacers, and Hawks to all win at home - which provides us with some really nice odds since only the Cavs and Knicks are slightly large favorites there.

The Pick: Cavs/Knicks/Pacers/Hawks ML Parlay (+470 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez4 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk4 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King4 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich4 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram4 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender4 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III4 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington4 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson4 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer5 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams5 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge5 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews5 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones5 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin5 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice5 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep5 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson6 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell6 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry6 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey6 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt6 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz7 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman7 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford7 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi7 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen7 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick7 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners8 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay8 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López8 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland8 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia8 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti8 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL8 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette9 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus9 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants9 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears9 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger9 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele9 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns9 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals9 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter10 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry10 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips10 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith10 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball10 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter10 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey10 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton10 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale10 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant10 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal10 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II10 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons10 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young10 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser11 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo11 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud11 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart11 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba11 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga11 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry11 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown11 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault11 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere11 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn11 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro11 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions14 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans14 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders14 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear14 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins14 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL14 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä14 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway15 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys15 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal15 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy15 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris15 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk15 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth17 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp17 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim17 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood17 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau18 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole18 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith21 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment22 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka22 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov22 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov22 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes22 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]