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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (1/31/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 1/31/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.

Friday's NBA slate was very much a mixed bag for me. While I did pretty well in DFS, the two bets I recommend in this column both missed, and a few others I liked (but not quite as much) hit. That's why I always supply my model as well and try to highlight a few other good spots there. The Spurs have been a team I've targeted a lot ATS this season and sure enough, they pulled off a nice upset against the Bulls on Friday and I was too chicken to recommend them. You win some, you lose some, and even after an 0-2 Friday I am still sitting (though precariously) at one game above .500 on the season.

It seems like the COVID craziness that made making picks so difficult for the last few months is finally waning, but we still have a lot of injury situations to deal with even with only eight games on the docket tonight. Just proceed with caution as always.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, January 31st, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 69-68
  • Against the Spread 43-37
  • Over/Under 20-27
  • Other/Props 6-4
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (210 total)

So let's address the elephant in the room right away. Yes, the Cavs dropped a game to the lowly Detroit Pistons last night, losing by 10 points after leading nearly the entire game. While that really sucked for Cavs fans and bettors alike, it was a pretty fluky outcome when you consider the entire season-long sample size from these Cavs. They've been fantastic against the spread all season long, whether that's at home or on the road.

I'm still getting used to seeing them as such heavy favorites on nights where they face inferior opponents, but I think this spread is well-deserved tonight and that the Cavs can cover it. Throw away yesterday's result and focus on the fact that this Cavs team is still 8-2 over their last ten games, while the Pelicans are a mere 4-6 and have dropped three in a row.

New Orleans could be without Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, and Josh Hart in this game, too. They lost their last three games by an average of 10.3 points and I think we see that trend continue here with a double-digit Cavs victory.

The only time these teams met earlier in the year, the Pelicans prevailed 108-104 but the Cavs were without their lifeblood Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen in that game.

The Pick: Cavs -7.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (217 total)

I will just start by saying this is a nice game for DFS tonight, as the Thunder players will all make appealing targets with their main man Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup. But for that same reason, I think the Blazers should be much bigger favorites than they currently are, even on the road.

OKC just isn't the same team without SGA. They're 0-5 without him this season and even when we toss out the historic 76-point loss to Memphis as an outlier, their net rating drops to -11.5 in the other four games combined without SGA. When I look at Portland, I see a team that has been pretty resilient of late when you consider they are still without their superstar Damien Lillard and have been battling injuries to important role players like Robert Covington, Nassir Little, and Larry Nance Jr. Portland is 4-4 since C.J. McCollum returned to the lineup and has a net rating right around zero.

I'm loading up on the Blazers here, I think they cover this spread with ease tonight based on their strong recent play and how bad OKC has been without their best player.

The Pick: Blazers -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) 

 

Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Boston Celtics (208 total)

This pick really relies on the Heat's leader, Jimmy Butler, playing tonight. So if you want to wait to see that confirmed, I don't blame you. If Butler was absolutely going to play, I think this spread would be closer so there must be some healthy skepticism about his availability in the betting community.

Having said that, if Butler is in then the Heat should be favored or we should at least have a pick 'em here. Miami has been a better team without Boston all year and the absence of Kyle Lowry from their lineup hasn't had much effect on their net rating at all.

How about these trends, too? Miami is 13-3 ATS as the underdog this season with a league-best +13 point differential. They're also 15-11 on the road ATS. When you combine the two trends, they're 9-3 as road underdogs with a +10 differential.

I'll take Miami with the points now, and if Butler gets ruled in then I'll add Miami ML to my card (hopefully still at plus odds) at that point.

The Pick: Heat +4.5 (Butler's status is paramount here) -110 DK Sportsbook

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

Let's roll out a nice home favorite ML parlay today! Give me the Cavs, Knicks, Pacers, and Hawks to all win at home - which provides us with some really nice odds since only the Cavs and Knicks are slightly large favorites there.

The Pick: Cavs/Knicks/Pacers/Hawks ML Parlay (+470 DK Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix

(click to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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