RADIO
Welcome to the first NBA Best Bets of the new year! I won't lie, things have been incredibly dicey betting on the NBA over the last few weeks, but we've still managed to hit some bets and if anything, I've actually been playing more DFS and betting player props more often because of the unpredictability of these games on a nightly basis.
I do have a few really solid spots tonight that I want to attack tonight, despite the craziness but I would recommend that you take it easy with your bankroll and with the number of bets you are making on a nightly basis until we get some more normalcy back.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, January 3rd, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 65-72
- Against the Spread 37-27
- Over/Under 19-22
- Other/Props 4-4
- Teasers/Parlays 5-20
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (227 total)
This spread has already moved a full point towards Memphis since I started my research this morning. I'm not really sure why Brooklyn is so heavily favored here, but I am ready to back the underdogs with the points. The Grizzlies have been playing well since the return of Ja Morant, winning four straight including a big win over Phoenix in that span. While they are missing a few key role players (Anderson, Brooks, and Melton), Memphis has the depth to withstand it and as long as Morant is out there, they have a chance against just about anyone in the league with how well he is playing.
The Nets have lost two straight and absolutely fumbled their last game away late as they were outscored 40-29 in the fourth quarter by a Clippers team that didn't have Paul George or Marcus Morris Sr. The Nets are a good team, but they lose games like that way too often or let inferior teams hang around. Memphis has a shot to win tonight, but even if they don't, I think they're right there with Brooklyn down to the final minutes.
As far as trends go, Memphis has been excellent ATS this season at 22-15 while Brooklyn has been subpar at only 14-19-1 and an average margin of victory of only three points. If you're feeling really ballsy, fire up that Memphis money line, but the safe bet is taking the points.
The Pick: Grizzlies -6.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Miami Heat (+10) @ Golden State Warriors (217.5 total)
This should be a fantastic game to watch and hopefully we get most of the stars from both teams playing in this game. As of right now, Miami is listing Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Dwayne Dedmon, and P.J. Tucker, and Duncan Robinson out while the Warriors look to have their whole starting lineup back in the mix.
Miami has fallen all the way to ten-point underdogs, which feels like too much even with how banged up they are. As long as Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Omer Yurtseven are suiting up, I think they'll compete and battle. They dropped a close game to the Kings last night and some of their regulars played big minutes and could have some tired legs. I'm backing the under here instead of picking a team against the spread.
Miami has gone over more than under this year, but their overall net margin is still under a point. Meanwhile, the Warriors are now the best team in the league at going under as they've hit them at a 66% rate this season and are -6.3 in total O/U margin. Both teams are solid defensively and this game certainly has the feel of being more of a defensive struggle than a shootout. It's already dropped a point and a half from where it opened at 219 and I have projected as low as 211.
The Pick: UNDER 217.5 (good down to 214.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
Going with a 4.5 teaser here with three pretty heavy underdogs. We are already on the Grizzlies to cover so let's toss in the Rockets and Heat with some big cushions and hope they keep it relatively close.
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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