RADIO
We are coming off a 2-0 day on Wednesday in which we even hit our 3-team ML parlay! I needed that after a less-than-stellar 0-3 outing on Monday. With 11 NBA games tonight, surely we can find some bets we like on this slate, right?
It seems like the COVID craziness that made making picks so difficult for the last few months is finally waning, but we still have a lot of injury situations to deal with. I would just caution everyone about betting too early in the day as I got burned last night betting on the Lakers, only to see LeBron downgraded to questionable and eventually to out. I would have never bet on the Lakers (something I already hate doing) without LeBron in the lineup on the road against the Sixers.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, January 28th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 69-66
- Against the Spread 43-36
- Over/Under 20-26
- Other/Props 6-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (+1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (219 total)
This should be a fun game tonight between two potential playoff teams in the East. The Celtics are underdogs here on the road, but I view this game as basically a coin-flip, and if anything I am favoring Boston here in this matchup.
These teams only met once earlier this season with the Hawks winning 110-99. However, in that game, the Celtics were without both Robert Williams III and Jaylen Brown while Atlanta had all their guys. This time around, Boston will be at full strength and is coming off two blowout wins. Atlanta is hot, too, winning five straight and has their full complement of players.
Most things being equal, I will lean Boston here as they have the one-two punch of Tatum and Brown while Atlanta's success is so often tied exclusively to Trae Young's shooting. Give me the underdog at better odds here, let's go Celtics!
The Pick: Celtics ML (+105 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks Totals
New York Knicks (+8.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (217 total)
This is the fourth time these teams have faced off this season already with the Bucks holding a 2-1 advantage in the season series. After a somewhat promising start to the season, the Knicks have really fallen out of contention for the playoffs in the East at 23-26 which puts them 11th out of 16 teams in the conference. They've now been rumored to be shopping some players in trades and it feels like they're going to be focusing on regrouping and rebuilding after failing to follow up on last year's successful campaign.
The Bucks are coming off a tough loss to the rising Cavaliers, but are still in good shape at 30-20 and are getting healthy in plenty of time for a deep playoff run. There are two contrasting styles here as the Bucks like to play fast and the Knicks play at one of the slowest paces in the league.
All signs point to an under here as both teams are hitting the under in their game at a 58% rate this season. The first three meetings ended with 209, 211, and 212 points, too, which makes me a bit more confident in my projection of 211 total points here. I see a lot of value on the under and it's my favorite bet as far as totals tonight as all the trends (historical sample, full-season stats, last ten game samples) all line up here.
The Pick: UNDER 217 (good down to 215) -110 DK Sportsbook
No Teasers or Parlays today, but feel free to use my spread and total projections to build your own!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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