Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (1/12/24)

After a smaller five-game slate yesterday, we have a larger 10-game slate tonight. There's a lot of opportunity on the board; let's capitalize on it.

In my last article on Wednesday, I went 1-2. The Pacers won the first quarter by two, missing out on the 2.5-point spread. San Antonio easily covered the 1.5-point first-half spread. I tried to change it up and took the Houston Rockets team total under 106.5. That was a loss, and it was a worthwhile experiment, but I'll be sticking to what I've had success with.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday, January 12. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13. 

NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

Indiana Pacers (+5.5) at Atlanta Hawks (252.5 total)

The Pacers are obviously without their best player, Tyrese Haliburton. Indiana still managed to win against the Wizards on Wednesday, but only put up 112 points. In four games without Haliburton, they have scored 144, 112, 109, and 104 points. The 144-point outing in Miami on December 2 saw the Pacers hit 56/85 (66%) field goals and 16/32 (50%) three-pointers. Needless to say, I don't anticipate that happening again tonight.

Atlanta comes into this game off of a 139-132 overtime win at home over the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. Atlanta scored 14 points in the extra five-minute frame but put up 125 points in regulation.

This is a Hawks team that is averaging 125.9 points per game at home while hitting 48.5 percent of their field goals.

I'm taking the Hawks because I'm not sure if the Pacers will be able to keep up with them. Atlanta scored 125 in regulation against a Sixers team that has a 118.4 defensive rating without Joel Embiid this season.

Removing that Heat game, Indiana has only averaged 108.3 points without Tyrese Haliburton. They also have a league-worst 123.2 defensive rating on the road this season. Atlanta scores a lot of points, hits threes, and can get to the foul line.

I don't like a first-quarter or first-half pick in this game, but I think the Hawks have better full-game sustainability and will cover this number.

The Pick: Hawks -5.5 (-110 Caesars)

Golden State Warriors (+3) at Chicago Bulls (229.5 total)

The Warriors haven't been playing good ball lately, losing two straight and six out of their last eight games. Meanwhile, Chicago has won three straight and has looked good recently.

In a situation where I can take Stephen Curry and get a point in the first quarter, I'm going to take it. According to EV Analytics, Chicago is only 10-12 ATS in the first quarter at home. Golden State is 9-5-1 ATS in the first quarter on the road this season. The Warriors have been way better at covering first-quarter spreads on the road than at home.

Golden State averages more points and shoots better percentages than the Bulls in the opening 12 minutes of games. They also have better rebounding and assist numbers. Moving the ball and creating open looks is always key in a time crunch of 12 minutes.

The Bulls are giving up 28.4 points in the first quarter, while the Warriors give up 28.6. So I wouldn't give either team a big defensive advantage. If anything, I'd say Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic being back for Chicago should only hurt them defensively.

Chicago is giving up a league-high 10.2 three-point attempts in the first quarter. That should be music to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson's ears.

Dubs early in this one for me.

The Pick: Warriors First Quarter +1.5 (-125 Sports Illustrated Sportsbook)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

Sacramento Kings (-1) at Philadelphia 76ers (241 total)

The Philadelphia 76ers are 7-2 this season without Joel Embiid. In those nine games, Philly is averaging 113.4 points, hitting 44.6 percent of their field goals and shooting 32.8 percent from three.

Those averages would put them in the bottom 10 in scoring, the bottom three in field goal percentage, and last in the league in three-point percentage.

They are giving up 118.1 points without Embiid. There were two games where Chicago and Orlando each scored 92 points. Take away those two, and that average goes up to 123.7 points allowed.

Sacramento comes into this game on a two-game winning streak and has won four of its last five. Over those five games, they have put up 125.4 points per game. Notably, Mike Brown's team is hitting 50.3 percent of their field goals and shooting 40.3 percent from deep.

Taking away Embiid also opens up the paint for the Kings. Domantas Sabonis is averaging a career-high 14.5 points in the paint this season and should feast in this matchup. He's shooting 70.2 percent in the restricted area. The Kings are averaging 62.8 PITP over their last five games. Philly has been without Embiid for the last three games and has given up 60 points in the paint on average. That would place them in the bottom five.

Point guard De'Aaron Fox is averaging a career-high 27.9 points and will have the Sixers guards busy trying to cover him.

The Kings aren't so great on defense, but still rank a respectable 17th in defensive rating.

The Pick: Sacramento Kings ML (+100 FanDuel)

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