Free MLB Player Props - Today's Prop Betting Picks for Hitters and Pitchers (7/21/23)

July 21, 2023

Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Friday, July 21, 2023. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.

We have all but one game on Friday's slate unfolding in the evening, giving us plenty of options in terms of both hitter and pitcher props. Now that we're a full week back into play following the All-Star break, matters have mostly normalized again in terms of hitters and pitchers shaking off any rust and rested arms no longer having an advantage in what is now their second start following the Midsummer Classic.

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, July 21, 2023. With several intriguing scenarios in play Friday, let's dive into some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!

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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Braxton Garrett  OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+116 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Garrett had one nightmarish home start against the potent Braves lineup back on May 3 where he allowed 11 earned runs on 14 hits over 4.1 innings, but otherwise, he's been very effective at LoanDepot Park and has posted a stellar 10.2 K/9 there across 46 frames.

The Rockies have been largely inept against left-handers on the road all season, posting a 27.4 percent strikeout rate in that split since June 1 and an only slightly lower 27.1 percent figure for the season. Garrett also has a 10.6 K/9 versus right-handed pitching specifically at home, and Colorado's projected lineup Friday features seven righty bats.

Garrett has reached at least seven strikeouts in seven of 18 starts and has come just one short of that mark in three others. Given the Rockies' season-long struggles to make consistent contact against lefties and the fact Garrett will be pitching on a full five days' rest, this prop is very much in play at plus money.

Shohei Ohtani OVER 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-128 FanDuel SportsBook)

Ohtani has had his swing-and-miss stuff in top form at home, where he owns a 12.4 K/9 over 62.1 innings. The two-way phenom has recorded at least eight strikeouts in exactly half of his 18 starts, with six of those nine instances coming at home and four overall unfolding from May 21 onward.

Ohtani has also fallen just short of this prop with seven strikeouts on two other occasions, and Friday, he faces a Pirates team that sports a 25.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month. Pittsburgh also has just a .223 average, .282 wOBA, .096 ISO and -7.9 wRAA in that split, supporting the notion Ohtani is unlikely to have a short outing that could compromise his ability to reach this prop.

And, for what it's worth, the four current Pirates bats that have faced Ohtani in the past have fared miserably over a small sample -- they're hitting a combined .071 (1-for-14) with six strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/uqRwJZuTg4

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 15, 2023

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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks

Lane Thomas  At Least 2 Hits (+220 FanDuel SportsBook) or OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Thomas is enjoying his most extended stretch of success in the majors to date, generating a .289 average, .819 OPS and 41 extra-base hits overall in his first 95 games. With 15 homers and 51 RBI, the talented outfielder is also on the precipice of eclipsing the career highs he set in both categories last season (17 homers, 52 RBI).

Thomas boasts an impressive 30 multi-hit efforts already, with 18 of those coming at home. He's been excellent at Nationals Park overall and has particularly taken left-handers to task there. Thomas owns a .348 average, 1.031 OPS and .436 wOBA against southpaws at home in a 71-plate-appearance sample, and he's struck out at a tiny 11.3 percent clip in that split.

Thomas has also enjoyed plenty of past success against left-handed opposing starter Alex Wood, who's surrendered a .571 average to him in seven career encounters. Thomas has also been running hot at the plate for more than a month, posting a .296/.339/.472 slash line over his last 26 games, and he could also be in very good shape with respect to cashing this prop once Wood exits -- Giants relievers have pitched to a 6.40 ERA and .305 BAA against the 147 right-handed batters they've faced in July.

Luis Arraez At Least 2 Hits (+150 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Arraez has famously been churning out hits all season and checks into Friday's favorable matchup fresh off his 37th multi-hit effort in 92 games. The veteran gets a crack at Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert, who's being summoned from Triple-A Albuquerque, to start the game.

Lambert has had plenty of trouble with left-handed hitters during his prior big-league stints, surrendering a .358 average and .440 wOBA in that split. What's more, the worst of his struggles against lefty bats haven't even come at Coors Field -- he's given up a .370 average and .448 wOBA when facing them on the road while posting a 6.33 FIP.

Arraez has raked against virtually any pitcher put in front of him, and he's carrying an astounding .434 average, .977 OPS and absurdly small 1.3 percent strikeout rate against righties at home. It's also worth noting that while Rockies relievers have been much better over a small July sample (50 batters) against left-handed hitters, they've struggled to a 5.48 ERA, .278 BAA and .353 wOBA against them when zooming out to a more extensive sample that dates back to June 1.

Teoscar Hernandez To Hit A HR (+340 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Curiously enough, I had this Hernandez HR prop as one I wanted to go with before the slugger snapped his long-ball drought in Thursday's win over the Twins.

However, even though my prediction came to fruition a day early, there's no reason to back off, as Hernandez could very well be due for a multi-game power surge considering he'd averaged a homer once every 21.6 plate appearances before going 72 PAs (across 17 games) without one until Thursday's solo blast.

The fact Hernandez is not only facing a left-hander, but one he's already had prior success against, in Friday's series opener versus the Blue Jays also keeps this prop very appealing. Hernandez has knocked Toronto starting southpaw Yusei Kikuchi around for a .444 average with two doubles, a home run and only one strikeout in nine career encounters.

Kikuchi has also been particularly susceptible to the long ball when facing righties on the road. The veteran has yielded a 2.3 HR/9 across 51.2 road frames, giving up 10 homers to righty bats in that split. Then, it's worth noting that Kikuchi conceded 2.6 and 1.5 HR/9s to right-handed hitters in the two seasons (2019, 2021) he pitched at Safeco Field while with the Mariners.

Finally, note that Hernandez has always been a dangerous hitter versus left-handed pitchers (career .899 OPS and .375 wOBA) and has averaged one homer every 15 plate appearances versus southpaws for his career.