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While Sunday is often regarded as a day of rest, there's simply "no rest for the wicked" as my work is never done! My job is to bring you the best player props for today's games and today...I have a bunch! I'll share my top three pitching props and two favorite hitter props with you here and if you want more -- you know where to find me!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, June 4, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tyler Wells OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Wells is a guy who often flies under the radar, but this year he's taken a big step towards being a really darn good major league pitcher. He's leading the league in WHIP with a tiny 0.83 mark through the first two months and he's really turned it up in the strikeout department as he's now up over 25% on the year after striking out 7-8 hitters in each of his last four starts.
Tyler Wells, Painted 85mph Changeup. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/r2L2fT58Sx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2023
Wells has a good matchup here against the Giants, who strike out 25% of the time against righties and their most recent two-week trend has been even higher up around 28%. This Giants team has had to play a lot of young guys lately and right now LaMonte Wade Jr. is the only player in the projected lineup with a strikeout rate under 22% against RHP. I look for Wells to keep his strong streak going here. While he's our biggest number today, he also comes with the best odds of the three picks as well.
Taj Bradley OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
If you've read my content before, you probably know that I am a pretty big believer in Bradley. He went down the minors after his first three MLB starts in April and a lot was made of how he struggled at Triple-A after pitching effectively at the big league level. But a lot of that really had more to do with this tinkering with his pitches and working on some things than it had to do with his actual talent or stuff.
The kid can pitch and I think he's proven that since coming back up for his second stint in mid-May. He's still not pitching deep into games, but Bradley has seven and eight strikeouts in his last two starts, raising his K% to 34.4% on the season (best on the board today).
Taj Bradley, Elevated 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/qeRmZeqI33
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2023
Earlier in the year, we were avoiding the Red Sox for strikeouts as they had a very low K%, but that trend has been evolving and Boston is actually striking out 24% of the time against righties over the last two weeks -- a significant increase from their early-season average.
I look for Bradley to pitch well here and get 5+ relatively easily. While the Sox can throw a bunch of lefties at him, Bradley has actually been better against lefties (38% K%) than righties (31% K%) this year. The top four hitters from Boston are a hard group to whiff. From 5-9 in the lineup, we have guys with 25-30% strikeout rates. Bradley should get it done today I think.
Ben Lively OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Lively has been a nice surprise for the Reds, who have had to dig into their reserves for starters with some unfortunate early injuries in their rotation. Since entering the rotation, Lively has made three very effective starts against some good teams (Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox) and struck out eight, six, and six hitters in those three starts.
Now, a 10% SwStr% suggests that he's probably more of a 22-23% strikeout rate guy than his current 27%. Even with some regression to the norm today, I think we can count on at least five against the strikeout-prone Brewers. While I usually want lefties against Milwaukee as they are one of the worst teams against LHP, they're also trending up in strikeout rate against righties, too, as their most recent two-week sample is several ticks higher than their season average.
I can't say I know a lot about Lively or have seen him pitch much, but the results have been there. Because there's enough skepticism around his ability to keep it up, we get him at a low 4.5 number for at least one more start.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 total bases (-120 DraftKings)
If I am recommending two hitters today, I get to use the BvP on at least one of them, right? Goldy has some silly numbers against Rich Hill in his career. He's hitting .522 against Hill with three home runs and has struck out just twice across 26 plate appearances. We know the big first baseman loves to hit off lefties by his excellent career splits and Hill has been very boom/bust this year with a big bust coming most recently against the Giants.
I can't imagine that Hill wants to try to throw too many fastballs to Goldy, so he will probably get a healthy dose of the big curveball, a pitch that Hill throws over 40% of the time to righties. Goldy simply smashes that pitch with an average exit velocity of 95 mph against it and only an 18% whiff rate. In other words, I think Paul is going to make contact with some baseballs today and that when he hits them, they're probably going to be hit hard.
Nolan Jones OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+115 DraftKings)
Jones was demolishing the baseball at Triple-A and finally got the call to the big league team last week. He's hitting .308 since arriving in Colorado and has a hit in all but one game. I wanted his total bases prop, but it was set at only 0.5, so I am going to go with his HR/RBI prop instead as we can get it at plus money. The Rockies get Brady Singer on the hill for KC today. He's been tortured by lefties in his career and has been struggling this season altogether.
I love what Jones brings to the table in this matchup. He's hit this prop in three of his last four games and I think the Rockies will put up enough offense today in this spot to where Jones has opportunities to score or drive in some runs. He's an emerging young talent and at some point, he's going to make a case for getting moved up in the lineup, too.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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