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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, May 29, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Happy Memorial Day, RotoBallers! I hope you're reading this while you're making plans for that barbecue or pool party and you're ready to kick back and relax and watch some major league baseball! We have games spread all across the day, today, so there are certainly going to be plenty of different times to catch some MLB action. I'll be working in my backyard on a bunch of pre-summer projects and perhaps you might be doing the same, too. Let's get some action on these games today!
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Yesterday we hit both the Strider and Gonzales props, but Javier and our hitters let us down. Let's do better today! In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 29, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and enjoy the holiday!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nathan Eovaldi OVER 18.5 outs recorded (-105 DraftKings)
The Rangers ace (yeah, I said it, deGrom!) has a K prop set at 6.5 and that's just too steep for me based on how his strikeout rate has bounced around. It seems like lately, he has focused less on getting strikeouts and more on inducing weak contact. That shift has allowed him to pitch deeper into games. In fact, he's pitched 7 innings or more now in five straight starts! That happens to include two complete games as well, against the Pirates and Yankees.
So this line is incredibly low, given how efficient Eovaldi has been. Detroit has improved on offense, but they are still not all that good and Eovaldi has shown that he can dominate against anyone this year. All we need is 6 innings and one additional out in the seventh and I think we get that from Nasty Nate at home today.
Taj Bradley OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
The Tampa rookie is probably pretty happy that his start was pushed back from yesterday (against the Dodgers) to today against the Cubs. We haven't seen Bradley pitch very deep into games, but he is sporting a 33% strikeout rate and isn't walking anyone either (just a 4% BB rate).
Taj Bradley's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/twtWT2nYsr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2023
Meanwhile, the Cubs have been trending UP with their K% against righties. They're sitting at 23% on the season, but over the last two weeks, that number has jumped to 27%. If Bradley goes five innings today, I have him projected for 7 strikeouts and at these odds, I am happy to take a risk on a talented youngster in a good spot.
Rich Hill OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 DraftKings)
We go from a rookie to an old guy here with Mr. "Dick Mountain" on the bump for the Pirates. When I first saw the Hill signing for my Buccos, I was distraught because I didn't think he had anything left in the tank. But he's actually provided some pretty solid innings for Pittsburgh thus far and carries a 23% strikeout rate despite throwing only 88-89 MPH on his fastball.
He's mixing his arm angles and throwing a ton of big, slow curveballs to keep hitters off balance. In a day when almost every starter is firing 92-98 MPH fastballs at hitters, Hill's arsenal of pitches can throw them off. He's struck out 7 and 9 hitters in his last two outings and it seems like he's continued to evolve his game and figured out a way to get guys out even without any velocity.
The Giants are sitting at 27% for the season and 29% over the last two weeks in terms of their K% against LHP. I'll take a shot on the crafty old lefty getting six Giants today and we are getting him at plus odds, too.
Also consider Tyler Wells over 4.5 strikeouts (+115)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Austin Hays OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
Hays has been Baltimore's hottest hitter over the last week. He finished 3-4 with a triple yesterday and extended his hit streak to five straight games. He's hitting in the 2-hole today against lefty Logan Allen of the Guardians and that puts him on the right side of his splits.
Hays has a .344 wOBA and .220 ISO against lefties this season. Meanwhile, Allen has allowed some loud contact thus far and I think he could be in trouble today against the trio of Hays, Mountcastle, and Santander. Hays has been the most consistent of the bunch and is making great contact right now, therefore I am rolling with him here at plus odds to get it done for us today.
Charlie Blackmon OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-140 DraftKings)
The old man on this Colorado squad is having quite a nice run lately. Blackmon has two home runs in his last three games and a nine-game hitting streak. He's not in Coors today, but Arizona's Chase Field is still a nice hitting environment as well.
On the season, Blackmon has a .370 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handers. The move to the leadoff spot makes a ton of sense for Colorado as Blackmon doesn't strike out much and usually walks a good bit. He's hit this prop in five straight games and I am taking the safety of the H+R+RBI prop here over the total bases even if it burned me TWICE the last two days with Lane Thomas hitting a double but failing to score or drive in a run.
Blackmon is facing Ryne Nelson today, who has allowed a .403 wOBA to lefties this season and Arizona also has a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league that will eventually relieve him.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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