X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/25/22)

Lance Lynn - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/25/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

The Yankees didn't play yesterday, so for one day, Aaron Judge couldn't hit a home run. Don't worry, folks; he and the Yankees are back in action today, and exceeding 61 home runs is well within reach. Oh, and Jacob deGrom pitches today. Quite a fun time to be a New York sports fan!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 24th, 2022, for the 9-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. It's a light slate of games, even for a Thursday, but are still several very exciting games featuring plenty of star talent. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Cubs

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -132

STL: Dakota Hudson| CHC: Marcus Stroman

With the 2023 MLB schedule leading to a balanced slate of games where every team plays one another, the time of divisional opponents facing off 19 times a year is coming to an end. This leads to more diverse matchups and overall excitement, though it also means fewer rivalry games, including one of my personal favorites – the friendly contest between the Cardinals and Cubs.

Certainly, these teams are heading in completely different directions; the Cubs are currently 17 games behind St.Louis in the division. Still, for one day, expect those roles to be reversed. There haven't been a lot of bright spots for the Cubs this season, but, so far, they should be pleased with the production they've gotten from Marcus Stroman this year.

In his first season of a three-year, $71 million deal, the 31-year-old is right around his career-best marks in skill interactive ERA (3.67 SIERA), K-BB (15.5%), strikeout rate (22.2%), and xFIP (3.31), and has made beneficial changes to his pitch usage – throwing more sinkers and ditching his ineffective four-seam fastball. If there's a day for the Cubs to come out on top, it's with him on the mound.

Meanwhile, whereas St.Louis has to feel great about the contributions they're getting from Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright, and Miles Mikolas, the last spot in the rotation is such a sore spot that they've tried to skip over it when possible. Among starting pitchers with at least 110 innings, Dakota Hudson ranks last in SIERA (5.14) and K-BB (2.7%) and has pitched five innings or fewer in four straight starts. The Cubs may struggle with strikeouts, but against Hudson, their other qualities – middle-of-the-pack in walk rate and isolated power (ISO) – should allow them to find success here.

Whereas Chicago has a starting pitcher they can depend on for significant length, the Cardinals don't, which is notable considering these two teams are in the midst of a five-game series in four days. When that's the case for a team priced as a notable underdog, it's something that can't go unnoticed. It hasn't been a fun season for Cubs fans, but a series win against St.Louis would definitely be a bright spot, and they're in position for some sun to shine in the Windy City.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+119), WynnBet Sportsbook

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Orioles

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHW -108

CHW: Lance Lynn| BAL: Jordan Lyles

Oh, no, we're going back to his well, aren't we?

On Tuesday, we looked at the White Sox moneyline being a favorable bet to make, which made sense; they were playing much better as of late, are much healthier, and had Dylan Cease on the mound. Instead, they came up short, though after bouncing back with a win on Wednesday, still can take a much-needed series win over a fellow AL playoff contender (still weird to say about the Orioles).

I'll harp on a similar point with the White Sox that we brought up on Tuesday:

"Meanwhile, the South Siders (11th in wRC+ over the past 30 days) have seen improved offensive contributions as of late, and it goes back to the production they're getting from key players during that time frame:

Now, Jimenez and Abreu are certainly benefitting from batted-ball luck, yet their quality of contact has also been very strong as well. Heck, Luis Robert has only played ten games during that span; they're definitely a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even without Tim Anderson in the fold."

Overall, they rank 9th in wRC+ over the past 30 days and get to face a pitcher in Jordan Lyles whose 5.20 projected ERA from ZiPs isn't exactly a bright note. On the other hand, Lance Lynn got off to a tough footing after not debuting until June with a knee injury, but since the start of the second half, he has simply been on a roll:

  • 28.4% K, 1.9% BB, 2.74 SIERA

This may just be a seven-game sample, but even overall he sports a very strong 3.32 SIERA, while his quality of arsenal based on Eno Sarris' stuff+ model (97 to 102.4) has ascended dramatically over the past month. Of course, there are few better places for a pitcher to do business than in the renovated Camden Yards; it has the fourth-lowest park factor for home runs this season, which you'd expect given the dramatic changes to the left field fence.

Ultimately, even if you called these two teams similar from an offensive standpoint, which I'm not sure is the case, the pitching advantage is too substantial in the White Sox's for this game to be considered a coin-flip. Yet, it is currently, and that's something to take advantage of. Please don't make us look silly again!

 

Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-108), FanDuel Sportsbook

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez1 hour ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King2 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich2 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram2 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender2 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III2 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington2 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson2 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams3 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge3 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews3 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones3 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin3 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice3 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep3 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson3 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell3 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao3 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry3 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey4 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt4 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz4 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman5 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford5 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi5 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen5 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick5 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners5 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay6 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López6 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland6 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia6 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti6 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL6 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette6 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus6 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants7 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears7 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger7 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele7 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns7 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals7 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter7 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips7 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith7 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball8 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter8 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton8 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale8 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal8 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II8 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young8 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser8 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud8 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart8 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba9 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga9 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry9 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown9 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault9 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere9 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn9 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro9 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions11 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans12 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders12 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear12 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins12 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL12 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä12 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway12 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal13 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy13 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris13 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk13 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth14 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp15 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim15 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood15 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau15 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole16 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith19 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment19 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka19 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov19 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov20 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes20 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]