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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 16-18-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for August 19, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI -170
PHI: Cristopher Sanchez | WSH: Jake Irvin
We kick things off in Washington with a National League East showdown between the Phillies and Nationals. While Philadelphia looks to maintain its slot atop the NL Wild Card race, Washington's 2023 hopes are all but dead. This game features some big-name bats that haven't necessarily lived up to their hype this season, but the underwhelming pitching matchup is highly exploitable.
Cristopher Sanchez gets the nod for the Phillies. He's not bad, but acknowledging that he's by far the most talented arm in this game is a useful jumping-off point. Through 11 starts, Sanchez sports a decent 3.92 xERA this season. His greatest asset is a 5.2% walk rate, but he's middling in most other categories. Sanchez is also no stranger to giving up power, surrendering a more generous .417 xSLG and 9.8% barrel rate.
Washington doesn't bring one of baseball's more intimidating offenses, but there is an underrated quality. The Nationals score a middling 4.4 runs per game on the season, though they perform better against left-handed pitchers. They carry a respectable 108 wRC+ against southpaws, including a .772 OPS, .334 wOBA, and a minuscule 18.6% strikeout rate.
The primary opportunity here lies with the Nationals' pitching. Jake Irvin gets the start, navigating a brutal campaign. Through 18 outings, Irvin carries an awful 5.08 xERA and 5.21 xFIP. That consists of similarly weak numbers, like a .461 xSLG, 10.3% barrel rate, 90.3 MPH average exit velocity, .345 xwOBA, and 18.6% strikeout rate. Irvin may not last long today. Once his day is done, he'll hand it off to one of the league's worst bullpens, who carry a 5.05 ERA into play.
Given the name-value in their lineup -- Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto -- Philadelphia's offense has been a major disappointment this season. Overall, the Phillies score 4.6 runs per game on the campaign. That includes a middling 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .737 OPS. That said, they have turned it up in August, posting a 120 wRC+ and .826 OPS, amounting to a whopping 5.7 runs per game. I expect Philly to jump all over Irvin and the Nationals' bullpen today.
In summary, I don't trust either team's pitching, and that especially applies to the Nationals. I expect this game to hit double-digits, and the Phillies could accomplish that all on their own.
Pick: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM (-110)
NYM: Kodai Senga | STL: Miles Mikolas
This game features two teams who are playing mostly pointless baseball at this point in the season. Regardless, the betting payout counts all the same. Both the Mets and Cardinals carry some juggernaut names in their lineups, but that hasn't translated into consistent production for either. Instead, it's the pitching matchup where we'll be able to identify an edge.
Kodai Senga takes the bump for the Mets. Through 22 starts, he boasts an impressive 3.30 ERA and 3.76 xFIP. His advanced stats point to some mild regression, but it's been an encouraging rookie campaign. He carries a strong .349 xSLG, .227 xBA, 5.8% barrel rate, 28.4% strikeout rate, and .302 xwOBA. The only identifiable deficiency in Senga's game is a bloated 11.3% walk rate. It's an ugly number, but Senga has shown improvement, surrendering two walks or fewer in seven of his past eight appearances.
To their credit, the Cardinals hold a strong 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. That includes a .768 OPS and .333 wOBA. That all sounds pretty good, but they're only scoring 4.6 runs per game and find themselves somewhat shorthanded these days. Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman both landed on the injured list this week, creating playing time for guys like Taylor Motter, Jose Fermin, and a freshly called-up Masyn Winn. St. Louis has a very top-heavy lineup, and Senga won't have much to contend with beyond Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
Conversely, Miles Mikolas gets the start for the Cardinals. Across 26 starts, Mikolas sports a weak 4.27 ERA, and the underlying numbers suggest he's pitching a lot worse than that. He owns a 4.88 xERA and 4.64 xFIP. That includes ugly stats, like a .282 xBA, .460 xSLG, .339 xwOBA, a 16.4% strikeout rate, and a 16.4% whiff rate. Mikolas surrendered six earned runs the last time he faced the Mets in June, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome here today.
Like St. Louis, the Mets bring a very top-heavy lineup. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso are all capable of big performances. Altogether, New York only scores 4.4 runs per game on the season. That includes a respectable 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which jumps to a 111 wRC+ since the beginning of July.
It's difficult to grant either offense an edge in this game, and their bullpen stats are borderline identical, but there exists a clear discrepancy at starting pitcher. Given that reason, I'm confidently picking the Mets to win this matchup. For a safer bet, I recommend the Mets' -110 moneyline, but the +154 payout on their run line is a worthwhile reach.
Pick: Mets -1.5 Run Line (+154) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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