X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/7/22)

Roansy Contreras fantasy baseball rankings MLB prospects draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

What a week of baseball this has been so far! The midwest gave us terrific matchups between the Twins and White Sox, as well as the Cubs and Brewers – competitive, down-to-the-wire games with a lot of surprises along the way. Postseason and award races are heating up, the Futures Game roster is being announced; this is the best time of the year!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 7th, 2022, for the 13-game 2:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Since there is a doubleheader, we have slightly more action than normal, though the value appears to be concentrated on a few games. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code WINNING. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Reds

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN -115

PIT: Roansy Contreras | CIN: Mike Minor

Considering these are the two bottom teams in the NL Central with a combined record of 61-101, this wouldn't appear to be the most exciting matchup on paper. Hey, at the end of the day, any doubleheader is fun!

These two teams are nearly identical when it comes to weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), outs above average (OAA), and bullpen skill interactive ERA (SIERA), meaning that the edge in this game ultimately comes down to the starting pitching. To that end, it's hard not to be intrigued with Pittsburgh here.

It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows for Pirates starter Roansy Contreras since being called back up to the majors in late May, but he still combines the ability to miss bats (12.3%) with the success in terms of generating called strikes (17.2%), which is a strong combination. According to Eno Sarris' predictive stuff+ model, which is incredibly useful for projecting pitcher performance in small sample sizes, Contreras (111.6) rates out well above that number, while his 101.2 pitching+ rating puts him right in line with the likes of Kyle Wright, Sean Manaea, Tony Gonsolin, and other very talented pitchers. Long story short; it's difficult to rely on performance metrics at the moment given his relatively small sample size, so we'll take a chance on the former top prospect becoming the pitcher he has been expected to develop into.

On the other side, it's been rough going for starter Mike Minor in his first season with the Reds. First off, he was delayed due to injury, and since coming back, all of the key underlying metrics (9.8% K-BB, 4.88 SIERA) are concerning. ZiPs projections go as far as to project him with a 5.18 ERA, along with a 2.06 HR/9; he's a fly-ball pitcher who allows a lot of contact, which is a poor combination at arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark, sans Coors Field.

With these teams being practically the same, it all comes down to the pitching. In that case, would you rather bet on a top prospect with an arsenal that rates out extremely strong, or a 34-year-old pitcher who has been a below replacement-level pitcher this year? In a game that is being priced as 50/50, I certainly advise leaning with the former. It'll be a long day for both teams, but for at least for game #1, the Jolly Roger shall be raised.

Pick: Pittsburgh ML (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any VIP Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code WINNING. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Red Sox

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY -156
NYY: Gerrit Cole | BOS: Josh Winckowski

Is Yankees-Red Sox the best rivalry in baseball? I'm sure West Coasters (Dodgers/Giants) and Midwesterners (Cardinals/Cubs) would have something to say about that, but it's always very special when these two teams face off. Even better, for a second straight year, both teams are postseason teams; these are going to be very emotional, hard-fought games.

For the Yankees, this couldn't be set up much better for them. Why? They get to start this series with their ace on the mound. I mean, there's not much else to add about Gerrit Cole, who has continued to be dominant this season:

  • SIERA (2.92): 4th
  • K-BB (24.5%): 4th
  • Called-Strike + Whiff Rate (31.1%): 7th
  • Pitching+ (111.5): 2nd
  • Stuff+ (126.5): 3rd

Say what you want about last year's "sticky stuff" controversy; Cole is almost certainly a top-three pitcher in baseball. A combination of the Yankees, who rank first in run differential, combined with the prowess of Cole, is the best team in baseball. Really, I'm not sure what else needs to be said other than that.

The Red Sox have to be thrilled with the performance of 24-year-old Josh Winckowski (3.97 SIERA) over the first five starts of his career. At the same time, those games have come against the Orioles, A's, Tigers, Guardians, and Cubs; all below-average offenses in terms of runs scored. As someone who isn't going to miss bats (8.2% swinging-strike rate) as a sinker-baller, he has been very reliant on his ability to induce ground balls (56.3%), but he now faces an offense with the seventh-lowest ground-ball rate in baseball. If there is an offense where not inducing whiffs is an issue, it's a team that ranks second in baseball in hard-hit rate and first in barrel rate; this may not be an ideal matchup for the young righty.

With a clear bullpen and offense advantage, the Yankees would be in a good spot here before counting for the massive starting pitching gap here. Ultimately, there are two ways to capitalize on this. Should you want more of a sure thing, their current money line at (-156) seems to be quite underpriced. However, if you want some risk, their run line at (+105) may be more up your alley, with a great potential pay-off. Which bet you choose (or if you bet at all) is definitely a personal decision, and you can't go wrong either way. Regardless, the Bronx Bombers appear set to start this series on the right foot.

 

Pick (Option A):  New York ML (-156), WynnBet Sportsbook

Pick (Option B):  New York Run Line (+105), Sports Illustrated Sportsbook

 

 

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Conley8 mins ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson16 mins ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson27 mins ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins32 mins ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis33 mins ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul35 mins ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy36 mins ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk42 mins ago

Making Progress
George Kittle43 mins ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann52 mins ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges58 mins ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.1 hour ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes1 hour ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin1 hour ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George1 hour ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon1 hour ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman1 hour ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson2 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith2 hours ago

Uncertain To Face The Sixers
Yaroslav Askarov2 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts2 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Nicolas Claxton2 hours ago

Questionable Versus Philly
Nikola Jokic2 hours ago

Absent From Practice On Thursday
Mikael Granlund2 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Cam Thomas2 hours ago

Probable On Friday Night
Alexandar Georgiev2 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2 hours ago

Out On Thursday Night
TB2 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
DeMar DeRozan2 hours ago

Intends To Make His Return Friday Versus Clippers
Frederik Andersen2 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson2 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta2 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Terry Rozier2 hours ago

Could Return For Sunday's Matchup With Dallas
Sam Darnold2 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco3 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift3 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
Luka Doncic3 hours ago

Expected To Miss At Least A Week
CeeDee Lamb3 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey3 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans3 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith4 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger5 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks5 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb5 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
5 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers6 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans7 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson8 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson9 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist9 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies9 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund9 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine9 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale20 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal20 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat22 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English22 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin22 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy22 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Josh Jacobs23 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith23 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
TJ Watt - IDP, Pittsburgh Steelers, DST, Defense, Fantasy Football Def

Week 12 Fantasy Football Team Defense Rankings: Steelers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Eagles D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Texans D/ST, Broncos D/ST

Fantasy football defenses are largely matchup-dependent, so many fantasy managers opt to stream a different defense each week. If you're in that boat, use our Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings for 2024 to find the top available option. There are just three weeks of the fantasy football regular season left, so it's never […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

TNF Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday WR Updates for Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Josh Downs, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore

At the wide receiver spot especially, bye weeks and injuries are major factors in Week 12. If you don't have an excess of must-start WRs and need help identifying the top available options, we're here to help with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive in below to see […]


Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday TE Updates for George Kittle, David Njoku, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

In most leagues, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain. If you desperately need a win to clinch a first-round bye or quality for the playoffs, use our Week 12 TNF fantasy football tight end rankings to help you with tough start-or-sit calls at the challenging TE spot. Ahead of the critical Week […]


Tommy DeVito- Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Not All Heroes...Play On Good Teams - Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlooks

It's well-known at this point that good offenses can help their players light up the scoreboards in fantasy football leagues. The mantra "trust in good players on good offenses" rings true, and some of the best seasons in fantasy football history have been aided by things like good playcalling and a good supporting cast. The […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

TNF Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday QB Updates for Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud

It's a critical week for fantasy football, as the playoffs are just around the corner. If you need help to nail your optimal lineups this week, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024 are here to assist. Ahead of the all-important Week 12 slate, let's navigate the rankings below and find out […]


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them. It's not worked out that way. It's […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates for Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, Calvin Ridley, more

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 12 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 12 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]