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Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/28/22)

Logan Gilbert - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

With Andrew Benintendi on the move, we officially have our first major trade of the 2022 MLB season! Over the next week, we are going to see the landscape of baseball change tremendously, but for now, all we can do is take it one day at a time. Live in the moment, as they say.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 28, 2022, for the 10-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. We have a limited slate, particularly early on, though that doesn't mean you won't be entertained! What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

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MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Astros

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU -143

SEA: Logan Gilbert | HOU: Jose Urquidy

Could the AL West become a tight race down the stretch? Considering the Astros are still ten games ahead of the Mariners, that's unlikely to happen. That being said, Seattle just gained three games on Houston with them sweeping the Rangers and the latter being swept by Oakland, and with a productive four-game series here, could definitely make things very interesting in a hurry.

Speaking of the Mariners, no team has a better record than them (16-4) over the past 20 days, allowing them to go from looking one of the season's main disappointments to on the verge of breaking their 20-year postseason drought. Meanwhile, it certainly isn't a fluke; Seattle ranks in the top ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and has allowed the fifth-fewest earned runs per nine innings (3.58). That's a strong combination, and only better when considering Logan Gilbert is on the mound.

Sure, perhaps the 25-year-old won't maintain his current 2.77 ERA. Still, he's a top-30 pitcher in Fangraphs wins above replacement (2.3 fWAR) and K-BB (17.1%). He's re-shaped his three off-speed pitches to complement his fastball better, and so far, the results have been promising.

Meanwhile, although the Astros have gotten strong results from their rotation. Jose Urquidy hasn't been quite as consistent as perhaps they'd hope for. Most of his main indicators (13% K-BB, 4.37 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) rank below-average for pitchers, while he also has a decorated home run problem (projected 1.58 HR/9 from Steamer). He's struggling to miss bats (9.9% swinging-strike rate), and, for what it's worth, has struggled mightily against Seattle in three starts against them this season (all starts have a SIERA over 5.00). That's a very minuscule sample, though, at the same time, may also be a sign that they simply see him well.

Regardless, given how well the Mariners are playing right now, it's hard to go against them, especially when they're an underdog with the pitching advantage. It's been a special run so far in the Emerald City, and don't expect it to end today.

Pick: Seattle Moneyline (+128), WynnBet Sportsbook

 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Pirates

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -189

PHI: Zack Wheeler | PIT: Zach Thompson

Two Pennsylvania teams, two pitchers with the same name, what more symmetry do we need here? Ironically, when it comes to competitive expectations, these two teams couldn't be any more different. Expect that to show here.

As things stand right now, the Phillies are just a half-game out of the postseason. In terms of the win-loss record (53-44), they actually rank 8th in all of baseball. The Pirates? Dead least with a 34-64 expected record. Let's be very clear; the gap between these two teams is remarkably wide.

Few teams hit for as much power as Philadelphia (7th in isolated power), which could be very problematic for Pirates starter Zach Thompson, who has struggled with the long ball this season and has been an exactly replacement level pitcher in 16 starts this season. In fact, among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, Thompson is seventh-worst in SIERA (4.90), fifth-worst in K-BB (5.7%), and third-worst in FIP (5.31). If there was a time for the Phillies to have the type of offensive outburst they're capable of, it doesn't get much better than this for them.

On the other end, in Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia gets to rely on one of the top pitchers in baseball. Last year's runner-up in the NL Cy Young award voting started the season slow after dealing with a shoulder injury, but after re-gaining his velocity on May 4th against the Rangers, his production (2.93 SIERA, 23.9% K-BB) is right up there with the game's elite pitchers.

The Pirates struggle mightily (bottom-ten in runs above average) against four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and sliders, which, of course, just happen to be Wheeler's top-three featured pitches. For an offense with the third-worst wRC+ in baseball, that's an issue. Then, you factor in the notable bullpen edge the Phillies have, in addition to the length Wheeler will provide them compared to Thompson, and it's hard to find one specific area where you can point to the Pirates and feel any sort of confidence they come away with an upset here. Sometimes, the obvious pick is the best, and hopefully, things aren't too good to be true here; I'm sure the Phillies won't find a way to make this harder than it needs to be, right?

Pick: Philadelphia Run Line (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
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Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
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Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
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Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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A Game-Time Decision Friday
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Out On Friday Against Royals
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Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
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Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
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Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
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Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
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Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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