X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/28/22)

Logan Gilbert - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

With Andrew Benintendi on the move, we officially have our first major trade of the 2022 MLB season! Over the next week, we are going to see the landscape of baseball change tremendously, but for now, all we can do is take it one day at a time. Live in the moment, as they say.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 28, 2022, for the 10-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. We have a limited slate, particularly early on, though that doesn't mean you won't be entertained! What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Astros

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU -143

SEA: Logan Gilbert | HOU: Jose Urquidy

Could the AL West become a tight race down the stretch? Considering the Astros are still ten games ahead of the Mariners, that's unlikely to happen. That being said, Seattle just gained three games on Houston with them sweeping the Rangers and the latter being swept by Oakland, and with a productive four-game series here, could definitely make things very interesting in a hurry.

Speaking of the Mariners, no team has a better record than them (16-4) over the past 20 days, allowing them to go from looking one of the season's main disappointments to on the verge of breaking their 20-year postseason drought. Meanwhile, it certainly isn't a fluke; Seattle ranks in the top ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and has allowed the fifth-fewest earned runs per nine innings (3.58). That's a strong combination, and only better when considering Logan Gilbert is on the mound.

Sure, perhaps the 25-year-old won't maintain his current 2.77 ERA. Still, he's a top-30 pitcher in Fangraphs wins above replacement (2.3 fWAR) and K-BB (17.1%). He's re-shaped his three off-speed pitches to complement his fastball better, and so far, the results have been promising.

Meanwhile, although the Astros have gotten strong results from their rotation. Jose Urquidy hasn't been quite as consistent as perhaps they'd hope for. Most of his main indicators (13% K-BB, 4.37 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) rank below-average for pitchers, while he also has a decorated home run problem (projected 1.58 HR/9 from Steamer). He's struggling to miss bats (9.9% swinging-strike rate), and, for what it's worth, has struggled mightily against Seattle in three starts against them this season (all starts have a SIERA over 5.00). That's a very minuscule sample, though, at the same time, may also be a sign that they simply see him well.

Regardless, given how well the Mariners are playing right now, it's hard to go against them, especially when they're an underdog with the pitching advantage. It's been a special run so far in the Emerald City, and don't expect it to end today.

Pick: Seattle Moneyline (+128), WynnBet Sportsbook

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Pirates

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -189

PHI: Zack Wheeler | PIT: Zach Thompson

Two Pennsylvania teams, two pitchers with the same name, what more symmetry do we need here? Ironically, when it comes to competitive expectations, these two teams couldn't be any more different. Expect that to show here.

As things stand right now, the Phillies are just a half-game out of the postseason. In terms of the win-loss record (53-44), they actually rank 8th in all of baseball. The Pirates? Dead least with a 34-64 expected record. Let's be very clear; the gap between these two teams is remarkably wide.

Few teams hit for as much power as Philadelphia (7th in isolated power), which could be very problematic for Pirates starter Zach Thompson, who has struggled with the long ball this season and has been an exactly replacement level pitcher in 16 starts this season. In fact, among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, Thompson is seventh-worst in SIERA (4.90), fifth-worst in K-BB (5.7%), and third-worst in FIP (5.31). If there was a time for the Phillies to have the type of offensive outburst they're capable of, it doesn't get much better than this for them.

On the other end, in Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia gets to rely on one of the top pitchers in baseball. Last year's runner-up in the NL Cy Young award voting started the season slow after dealing with a shoulder injury, but after re-gaining his velocity on May 4th against the Rangers, his production (2.93 SIERA, 23.9% K-BB) is right up there with the game's elite pitchers.

The Pirates struggle mightily (bottom-ten in runs above average) against four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and sliders, which, of course, just happen to be Wheeler's top-three featured pitches. For an offense with the third-worst wRC+ in baseball, that's an issue. Then, you factor in the notable bullpen edge the Phillies have, in addition to the length Wheeler will provide them compared to Thompson, and it's hard to find one specific area where you can point to the Pirates and feel any sort of confidence they come away with an upset here. Sometimes, the obvious pick is the best, and hopefully, things aren't too good to be true here; I'm sure the Phillies won't find a way to make this harder than it needs to be, right?

Pick: Philadelphia Run Line (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Merrill2 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday2 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets2 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo2 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford2 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki2 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet2 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana3 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips3 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade3 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer3 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman3 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young3 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies3 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid3 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin3 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta3 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil4 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio4 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm4 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II4 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace4 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard4 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson4 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta4 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes4 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans4 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Eeli Tolvanen4 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Ketel Marte4 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With Diamondbacks
Jaden Schwartz4 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
Iván Herrera4 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Slugs Three Homers, Drives In Six In Win Over Angels
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Sunday
5 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
6 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Ketel Marte6 hours ago

Diamondbacks Working On Extension For Ketel Marte
6 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams6 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Frankie Montas6 hours ago

Playing Catch From 60 Feet
Trea Turner6 hours ago

Returns To Wednesday's Lineup
Cleveland Browns8 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots8 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
8 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody8 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers8 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers10 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans10 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett10 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns11 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals11 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown11 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers11 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Jordan Mason12 hours ago

To Factor Into Short-Yardage, Goal-Line Situations
Bennedict Mathurin12 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Joe Milton III12 hours ago

Patriots Have Received Multiple Trade Inquiries For Joe Milton III
Myles Turner12 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday12 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown13 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham13 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis13 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard14 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel14 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko14 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson15 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson15 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin15 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young19 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama19 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim20 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Evan Engram21 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Caleb Williams22 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge22 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]