X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/7/22)

Tarik Skubal - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/7/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

Who thought it was a good idea to only have six games scheduled yesterday? After the Rangers and Guardians got rained out, we didn't have much in the way of baseball action on Monday, but that just sets up the intrigue for an exciting day today.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, June 7th, 2022, for the 16-game 3:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With an action-packed slate, there are a lot of games to keep a close eye on.  What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DET -115
DET: Tarik Skubal | PIT: Jose Quintana

After finishing with a winning record after the month of April last year, the Tigers certainly felt they were ready to compete for a playoff spot, signing shortstop Javier Baez and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez for a combined $217 million this past offseason. Unfortunately, with a 21-33 record, things have not gone as planned for them, but they aren't without any shining rays of optimism.

That bright spot would be starter Tarik Skubal, who has quickly ascended to not only being the ace on this pitching staff but one of the better young pitchers in all of baseball. In ten starts this season, the 25-year-old has a 2.97 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) that ranks sixth amongst qualified starters, as well as a 22.6% K-BB ratio that ranks seventh. Oh, and per Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), he's been the second-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball. Simply put, he's been fantastic.

The best part? This all stems from legitimate changes that Skubal has made to his pitch mix. Last season, home runs (2.11 HR/9) were a significant problem for him, stemming from a four-seam fastball that got hit very hard. Thus, he has adjusted accordingly:

Less fastballs, with more sliders and sinkers? That's the recipe for more ground balls, which Skubal has been able to induce at a high level (48.4% GB) this season. Essentially, he took his biggest weakness and turned it into a strength, and when that's the case, you're going to be well set up. Against a Pirates offense in the bottom-five in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) for the season, that should continue.

Detroit's offense (last in wRC+) hasn't exactly impressed this season, and they now have to face a pitcher with a 2.32 ERA. On the contrary, they're also facing a pitcher in Jose Quintana with a 4.26 SIERA and just an 11% K-BB, which certainly doesn't point to him performing at the level (results-wise) that he has so far this season. Plus, in terms of bullpen quality, Detroit (16th in SIERA) also holds the edge against Pittsburgh (26th), giving them the all-around superior pitching here, while both offenses haven't performed well. In that case, how could you not side with them as a slight favorite?

Pick: Detroit ML (-115), BETMGM

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -114
PHI: Ranger Suarez | MIL: Jason Alexander

Don't look now, but the Phillies have yet to lose since making a managerial change! Of course, those two aspects aren't correlated at all, and what you'd expect given that they are a very talented team that was simply under-performing, but they'll keep the streak going for at least one more day.

Injuries have decimated the Brewers' rotation, and as a result, they'll turn to Jason Alexander to stick in their rotation for the meantime. While he has demonstrated the ability to induce ground balls at an exceptional level in the minors, he also only struck out 17.5% of the batters he faced as a 29-year-old in Triple-A, while ZiPs projections go as far as to project him for a 5.25 ERA moving forward.

The Phillies, for what it's worth, rank in the bottom-ten in ground-ball rate, and hit the ball extra hard — they rank 7th in hard-hit rate and 9th in barrel rate. The quality of contact is tremendous, it's just about making enough contact. Luckily for them, that shouldn't be an issue against Alexander, who attempts to induce as much contact as possible.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have the third-lowest wRC+ against lefties this season. While it has been a tough season for Ranger Suarez overall, he has looked much better with a 3.88 SIERA in that span, despite the fact he has had to face some very talented (Dodgers twice, Giants, Braves, Mariners) lineups during that span. As a slight underdog here, it's hard not to side with the better pitcher and better offense, which generally is the formula for success. Now, let's just pray for the bullpen to not do ... well, normal Philly bullpen things.

Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -110
CHC: Keegan Thompson | BAL: Kyle Bradish

Once upon a time, these were two of the better teams in baseball. Now? Not so much; the teams are a combined 19 games under .500. That being said, why not add some excitement here.

For context, the Cubs only have three players in their lineup projected to be league-average or better from THE BAT X. The Orioles, meanwhile, have the sixth-worst wRC+ this season. Simply put, these are two offenses you should fade, and we have the perfect opportunity here.

Neither of these pitchers may pop off as super exciting, but both offer a strong layer of intrigue. Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has performed well (3.69 SIERA) in multi-inning stints, hasn't lost any velocity since transitioning to the rotation and induces plenty of ground balls (52.5% GB). On the other hand, Orioles starter Kyle Bradish misses plenty of bats (11.6% swinging-strike rate), doesn't walk many hitters (7.6% BB), and is suffering from very poor batted-ball luck with a .368 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) and a 24.2% home run/fly ball rate allowed.

Oriole Park has been the second-least friendly ballpark for home runs this season, per Baseball Savant. After all, the change in dimensions makes it nearly impossible for a right-handed hitter to hit a home run. Nine runs is a lot for two subpar offenses, and with both pitchers offering reasons to believe they'll succeed, the under looks very enticing here. Until the baseball changes again, ride with those under.

Pick: Chicago Baltimore Under 9 (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF